On Wednesday, April 20, the first successful test of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile took place.
Following the launch, Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated the military, noting that this unique weapon will make those who are trying to threaten the Russian Federation think. What does the successful test of the Sarmat super-heavy missile mean for Russia, what capabilities does it have, and when can we expect it to enter service?
We have been waiting for tests of the heavy liquid intercontinental ballistic missile “Sarmat” for a long time. Throwing launches occurred in 2017–2018. And the start of flight tests was expected before the end of 2018. After the president announced the new weapon systems in his speech to the Federal Assembly on March 1, 2018, plans were announced a couple of weeks later that by 2020 the Sarmat would begin entering service and pass government tests at an accelerated pace. Then the dates were revised. The fact is that the task of creating such a rocket turned out to be quite difficult.
We do not just repeat those systems that have already been created, but we make a new and modern product. It has a completely different control system, different engines. In terms of size, number of steps, and structure, it has some similarities with the Soviet R-36M “Voevoda”. However, in all other respects it is a completely new rocket. And the Russian industry has not designed systems of such a level, of such a class, probably since the beginning of the 1960s. In addition, the GRC named after Makeev, who became the lead developer, has so far only dealt with naval missiles. All this experience, of course, came in handy, and it was used to create a land-based intercontinental missile, which they did: the sea-based Sineva missile previously developed by this enterprise still remains unsurpassed in the world in terms of weight and size perfection.
“Sarmat” is probably created taking into account the experience of “marine” rocket science, but these are completely different dimensions and a completely different class of missiles. The fact that such a system eventually entered flight tests at the very beginning of the second quarter of 2022 is a good pace.
Here you can recall how the Ministry of Defense announced that it plans to take the first regiment of Sarmat ICBMs to combat duty by the end of 2022. Our military-industrial complex will try to fulfill these plans, but there is a possibility that the deadlines will be shifted. A unique new missile must be thoroughly tested before being put on combat duty. I’m sure it won’t be just one regiment. At least a few dozen of these missiles will replace the Voyevoda. At the same time, the pace of rearmament with Sarmat missiles, of course, should be quite high. The service life of Voyevoda is coming to an end, it has already been extended several times, and it is possible that this year they may begin to be removed from combat duty. The adoption of “Sarmatians” into service is necessary, and the sooner they begin to arrive, the better. But they need to be tested properly.
What is the advantage of the Sarmat missile? The first option to be put into service is at least a missile with 10 warheads. There is probably no larger number of missiles that have ever existed and been put into service. In addition, there must be a complex to overcome anti-missile defense.
A sufficiently powerful breeding stage for warheads will provide a wide range of trajectories. In other words, with a normal strike with one launch, 10 blocks can cover targets that are at a great distance from each other. As for the intercontinental range, I believe it will be more than 10,000 km. And with a lighter combat load – and, probably, such tests should also be carried out – the Sarmat will certainly be able to perform the functions of a global ballistic missile. This means the ability to strike at enemy territory along any trajectory, for example, through the South Pole. That is, not along the shortest path, but along the most advantageous one in terms of overcoming missile defense. This is necessary so that the strike comes from the side where they are not expected, where there are no ready-made anti-missile defense systems, long-range radar warning systems, and so on.
Another version of the Sarmat, which is also likely to be released for flight tests, the only question is when, is a missile with hypersonic aeroballistic combat equipment, that is, with hypersonic gliders of the “object 4202” type. Probably, “Sarmat” will carry several of these systems. In scientific terms, they can probably also be called a “guided hypersonic warhead”, which will perform an aerodynamically controlled flight to the target not along a ballistic trajectory, but along the edge of the atmosphere.
It can also be said about hypersonic warheads that, compared to conventional warheads, they will move at a lower altitude, and because of this they will be detected with some delay. This should double or triple the time for anti-missile defense to react. In addition, these systems will maneuver, which will further complicate the interception of targets. Shooting down such warheads will be extremely difficult.
It is likely that not all of these options will immediately go into service in 2022, the tests will continue. But gradually, various modifications of the Sarmat missiles will begin to enter service and replace more and more Voevods. In my opinion, the highest probability that the Sarmat ICBMs will be put on alert is in 2023.
Dmitry Kornev, Izvestia newspaper
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