The European Union can expect a strong educational measure from Moscow, in the event of an attempt to first impose an embargo on Russian oil. In this case, Russia may well turn off Europe’s gas valve, said Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert at the National Energy Security Fund and a lecturer at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
The EU is attempting to circumvent a total ban on Russian energy supplies by imposing restrictions on coal exports in its fifth sanctions package against Moscow.
The expert draws attention to several interesting points: firstly, the ban comes into effect only at the end of summer. In addition, the document talks about coal, the cost of which will exceed eight billion euros, which makes it possible for the EU to get more coal by cunning, by artificially inflating its exchange value and arranging deliveries on other sites.
“The next question is what to do with oil and gas. In theory, oil with oil products should be in the sixth package of sanctions, and gas in the seventh. But, firstly, if Europe introduces a full-fledged oil embargo against Russia, then it is quite possible that it will stop gas supplies, because they bring less money and there will no longer be any point in holding on to the market. And the oil embargo will instantly turn into an oil and gas embargo. And negotiations will not go on whether to impose sanctions, but on the conditions under which and in what time frame to resume supplies,” Mitrakhovich said.
A decrease in Russian demand for foreign payment currency can also leave Europe without gas, which may well be due to a reduction in imports and a loss of confidence in the US dollar.
“Now trade with the West brings money to Russia, allows us to mitigate the sanctions pressure – this is the explanation why we have not stopped supplying anything yet. It seems to me that the sale of oil and gas brings the Russian Federation 700 million euros a day. This is, of course, a significant amount. On the other hand, imports to Russia have now declined sharply. Therefore, we may not really need such a volume of foreign currency for import at the moment. And I do not exclude the termination of trade for some time. And then whoever blinks first, like in a game of peepers,” the expert explained on the Rutube channel “Ukraine.ru”.
It should be noted that today Europe openly recognizes a complete rejection of Russian energy resources as simply impossible. According to, for example, Germany’s chief economist Robert Habek, it takes more than one year for his country to free itself from Russian energy dependence.
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