Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan are strained, threatening a full-blown interstate conflict with all the ensuing consequences
First, the Afghan side launched a strike against the Pakistani military in the border area in the North Waziristan region of Pakistan. Seven soldiers were killed. Islamabad responded with airstrikes in the Afghan provinces of Khost and Kunar.
It would seem that Pakistan, which was one of the main beneficiaries of the Taliban regime coming to power in Afghanistan, should have had a different relationship with Kabul. However, the problems between the countries remained. The main reason is that the “good neighbourhood” model between Islamabad and Kabul exists only on paper. The two countries have their own geopolitical projects and political options.
Pakistan, with a government loyal to itself in Afghanistan, seeks to avoid Kabul’s anti-Pakistan pro-India vector, which was observed during the Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani governments. Pakistan’s geo-economic interest is to obtain transport corridors with Central Asia through trans-Afghan routes.
“The Taliban hatch a project to create a “Greater Pashtunistan” encompassing the territories of the two states, and seek to implement its own version of an Islamic state. It, therefore, does not recognise the Durand Line, which has divided the two countries since 1893, as a national boundary.
Up to a certain point, the US and NATO countries engaged in Afghanistan have acted as mediators in this historic dispute. But after the withdrawal of the coalition forces from the country, the problems in the relationship between Kabul and Islamabad have been actualized and become a tool for certain external forces to achieve their geopolitical goals.
There are two ways out of this situation. First: the strengthening of bilateral economic and political ties between Kabul and Islamabad, which can play a kind of guarantor role against a tough confrontation. The second: effective international mediation, in which Beijing and Moscow are likely contenders. The chances of regional mediation by Russia and China seem rather high.
The current situation in Pakistani-Afghanistan relations indicates that there are opportunities and challenges. Much depends on the balance of political forces within Afghanistan and Pakistan and their willingness to face a common future together and to seek compromise solutions. Or they will continue to fight on opposite sides of the Durand Line, engaging in a global geopolitical struggle.
For now, Pakistan continues to build fences separating the two countries in order to stop attacks on its territory. But a unilateral solution to the border problem is not an option.
Elena Panina
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