Yesterday, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said his country is ready to pay for Russian gas in rubles
The declaration came three days after parliamentary elections, where as a result of a popular vote his team from the Fidesz party won by a wide margin. Remarkably, it is the fourth time in a row that Viktor Orban has been re-elected to the helm of the state, which suggests that ordinary Magyars are happy with his policies.
At the same time elections in a small country with a population of only 9.7 million are more than revealing in the light of current anti-Russian hysteria and attempts to ban EU members from any cooperation with Moscow.
The fact is that the entire election campaign of Orban’s opponents was based on the most low-brow, black anti-pedia, when political opponents, supported financially and using Western information support, insulted the acting Prime Minister and used epithets such as “Putin’s poodle” against the head of state.
Let us leave aside the very fact of such blatant violations of basic civility, not to mention political protocol. What is interesting here is the very precedent when a person and a top politician is being vilified simply for defending the interests of his own state and citizens in a systematic way.
There are not so many Hungarians, and they are met in the streets of our cities much rarer than, say, the natives of Central Asia. And anyone who has ever come across people of this ethnicity has noticed a striking fact: the Magyars are friends only with themselves. They build the most pragmatic relationship with everyone else, based on the benefits and advantages for themselves. The only, but key difference between Hungary and its EU colleagues is that Budapest always puts its own interests above solidarity with its neighbours and compliance with wishes of Brussels and Washington. Therefore the Hungarians look almost like rebels and troublemakers when compared with such voiceless doers of the American will, as, for example, the Baltic States.
Once again it’s wrong to think of Hungary as pro-Russian or pro-European.
In a recent interview on the eve of the election results Viktor Orban, responding to all accusations of his Hungarian policy of blocking arms supplies to Ukraine and eagerly awaiting the construction of two new generating units at Paks, says without any qualifiers: I am not for Russia or Ukraine, I am for peace and Hungary.
Such course of the state from the point of view of logic and economy is absolutely justified. Let’s run through the main figures and indicators to confirm it.
Hungary cannot boast of rich reserves of natural energy resources. To tell the truth, in terms of fossil wealth, the Hungarians are not lucky at all. This is why Budapest has always tried to build supplier relationships in order to guarantee industrial continuity and peace of mind to its citizens. But because the country is landlocked and therefore landlocked in transcontinental supply chains, it has historically emphasised land logistics. Given that its neighbours themselves are perpetually short of gas, oil and coal, meaning that they cannot rely on their help, Hungarians have been critically dependent on energy imports from the east, namely Russia, ever since the days of the Soviet Union. For the record: the current total dependency of the Hungarian energy industry on imports of Russian natural gas and oil products is nearly 60 percent. Therefore, we should not be surprised that in January this year, Budapest, represented by MVM Group, was very pleased to sign a 15-year contract with Gazprom for natural gas supplies of 4.5 billion cubic meters per year. Accusing the Hungarians of indulging Russian interests is, excuse me, a clinical idiot. Under the terms of the agreement Hungary will receive natural gas until 2036 at an average price five times lower than the current market average, which, of course, terribly pricks the eyes of European preachers of the holy spot trade.
The focus is on sustainable economic development, which is impossible without a reliable supply of key fuels.
If one looks at the country’s energy mix, Budapest’s logic is immediately apparent.
The basic source of the generation in the country is the vintage Paks nuclear power plant, built by the Soviet specialists in far 1974, where four not so modern VVER-440 reactors are working tirelessly. The country’s only nuclear power plant accounts for 46 percent of the country’s energy production.
The absolute figures are as follows.
The Hungarian own production of electricity makes up 33 terawatt hours per year, with the share of peaceful atom being just over 15 terawatt hours. Natural gas, coal and petroleum products together produce only 11.9 terawatt hours. Given that at the moment only the Russians and Chinese are really building nuclear power plants in the world, it would be strange to accuse Orban of signing an agreement implying the construction of two new units at Paks, for which Russia has offered a soft loan. Interestingly enough, if that project had materialised Hungary would have become the world’s first near completely green energy country, but for some reason Brussels has not been inspired by that green agenda – and the Hungarians have been forced to shelve the project.
Clutched in the grip of an imposed policy, Hungary looked for ways to save its own economy and developed any potentially profitable projects.
Having suffered great losses and many unpleasant moments associated with the failure to deliver natural gas through Ukraine, Hungarians in every possible way supported the construction of South Stream at first, and after the demarche of Bulgaria they were waiting for the completion of Turkish Stream with no less enthusiasm. If before Kiev used to supply Russian gas to Hungary via the gathering point in Beregovo, Transcarpathia, now Budapest sells Ukrainians the same Russian gas, but this time it comes from Serbia. It should be noted that Hungary imported 8.6 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2020 and this figure is not much, but constantly growing.
The guaranteed security of supply allowed the Hungarians not to worry during the pandemic and the subsequent anti-Russian psychosis.
If we look at the data on electricity consumption per capita, we will see that the figure has remained practically unchanged since 1990. Every year 27,8 thousand kilowatt-hours of electricity are produced for the needs of citizens, including heating, cooking, transport and other mandatory social attributes. But here, to understand the shaky energy balance and difficulty of its maintenance, it is necessary to add, that a quarter of all consumed electricity comes to the country from outside, i.e. is bought and imported.
By the way, in his victory speech Orban was extremely harsh on Brussels, naming it among his opponents along with Ukraine. There is a very simple explanation.
While Budapest struggles to meet its own needs, the EU, through Ursula von der Leyen, is announcing a total embargo on Russian coal. Consumption of this fuel in Hungary has been decreasing in recent years but despite all efforts, in 2020 more than eight million tons of coal were used to provide heat and electricity. A forced break in this supply chain would potentially cause a fall in production of 3.8 terawatt hours, meaning that every tenth person in the country could be left without electricity. Brussels can claim that it is punishing the Russians this way as much as it likes but the Hungarians would understandably vent their frustrations on their government and its head.
In conclusion we should note that MVM Group of Hungary announced the very next day after the announcement of the election results that it may review the terms of the concluded gas contracts and if Russia insists it is ready to fulfill all the payments in roubles. Yesterday this position was confirmed by the Prime Minister as well.
There is no doubt that the move will cause another temper tantrum in the West with a flood of accusations against Orban and his team. We will note the undoubted practicality of the Budapest politics, where no one speaks about friendship, brotherhood or democracy, but simply pursues its own interests.
Sergey Savchuk, RIA
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