The battle for which preparations have been under way for several days will be the largest and, unfortunately, the bloodiest in the twenty-first century. The group of AFU that can be involved is about 90,000 people, which means that Russia will bring in no less. There has not been a battle of this scale in this century, and there has not been a battle of this scale in Europe since the Second World War.
In terms of the number of participants, the battle will be comparable to the Battle of Borodino. There were 120,000 each, but some did not take part. In terms of historical significance, the future battle is hard to overestimate. It is the outcome of this battle that will determine the trajectory of the negotiation process and the future of Ukraine and Russia.
Ukraine’s task: to inflict irreparable damage on Russia’s army, to drain as much as possible, to gain new information reasons to counter Russia, which will support the allies in their determination to help Ukraine, and in Russia to cause disappointment among the population.
Russia’s objective: Surround and destroy the Donbass grouping with the least losses to Russian forces and Donbass infrastructure.
Ukraine’s strengths: large grouping, new weaponry from the West, knowledge of the terrain, good defence of the eastern rampart from Severodonetsk to Avdeevka.
Russia’s strengths: air superiority, motivated DPR and LPR units, strategic initiative, ability to launch uninterrupted missile strikes.
It was in preparation for the battle that Ukraine attacked the oil depot that will supply the northern facet of the arc, while Russia hit the Kremenchug refinery oil storage facility, the closest fuel shipment point for the Ukrainian group.
Now Ukraine is already pulling in reserves as much as possible, with the Dnieper-Pavlograd highway jammed with equipment. Russia is also pulling in everything as much as possible: troops are being redeployed from the Kiev direction, and roads are jammed with equipment even in Voronezh Oblast (second echelon).
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