Smart people back in the last century said that the world would soon be completely different, non-Western – apparently Asian. But only now a complete consensus has formed in Washington on this part, a new team of people with a new tough policy towards China has taken their places.
The most important thing is that Beijing knows this very well. So it is rather meaningless to talk about which side China is on in the economic war unleashed against us with the West.
We are talking about the publication in the Hong Kong South China Morning Post, where the conversation is not so much even about the new “Chinese team” of the United States, but rather about how the Chinese expert community relates to this. And it, as it should be, sees everything, reflects and argues.
What he sees: The White House Sinologists are relatively young and tough. The previous generation of experts has been swept away because they were too kind to Beijing. For example, Henry Kissinger and his colleagues – they watched the rise of China from poverty to moderate prosperity, they believed in the possibility of creating an alliance where China would be a junior partner, but, most importantly, they firmly knew that the United States is an invincible superpower, which in this capacity has been standing for a hundred years.
The new team, those who have watched China for only twenty years, is different and strong, and most importantly, for them the United States is a power in decline, while China is on the rise. And they are determined to fight desperately on the defensive.
By the way, this phrase is the essence of everything that is happening now in the world as a whole, including the Ukrainian provocation against Russia. The Cold War – that was the time of the operation of some rules because the other side was confident in itself. Not now, and it’s wreaking havoc.
Note that Professor Fan Jishe from the Central Party School is talking about the difference between the new and the old team. Well, it is clear that he and his colleagues had enough time to trace the restructuring of the American consciousness in political circles, but he dates the beginning of the process to 2012. Then something like a consensus arose in the United States that all previous global politics were a mistake, since China would never become a Western democracy (and there were illusions of this kind!), then the trade and diplomatic hysteria of the Donald Trump administration began. And only now all the positions for many decades of confrontation have been placed. In which, of course, Russia is also participating, since they have already been dragged into it. And the whole world.
What China will do: they are also serious there. They sort out the entire “Chinese team” in the administration by name, they note that they are knowledgeable people. They say that you need to strengthen your team of Americanists. The main thing is that they recognize that the story with Ukraine will not affect the firm attitude of the United States towards a confrontation with China.
That is, you can forget about the idea that America will now have to pay more attention to European affairs and thereby give China a breather: there will be no respite, or rather, Beijing is not particularly looking forward to it. And there will be at least an economic war (albeit an information one too) of the type that is now being waged against Russia. And it will go on regardless of how the Chinese authorities behave, because China, both before Ukraine and now, will remain the main global competitor of the weakening superpower. And Russia is still the second.
It is clear that in such a situation it is possible to stop the popular talk among us about whether Beijing will surrender Moscow in exchange for some kind of compromise with the United States.
But the inertia of the mind is a stubborn thing. And therefore, one can only be touched by following the same discussion all over the planet about what tomorrow’s non-Western world will be like and how a big game with China, Russia, and many other countries should be played on the way to this world.
The London-based magazine The Economist came out with a cover featuring portraits of Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping and the headline: “An Alternative World Order.” Although two key materials discuss something else – how to avoid the onset of this alternative world order.
And this is what happens: the world economy will not survive the fight that is happening now, “democracies” must “maximize trade” – so as not to sacrifice security (from autocrats like Beijing and me). But in practice, this is very difficult to do, because the world of these same democrats cannot close in, afford a suicidal rollback towards “self-sufficiency”.
And therefore, it is necessary to split the union of Russia and China with all our might, although experts say that such a scenario is unlikely. It is clear that everything that happens around Ukraine for China is part of the process of the inevitable decline of the United States. And the faster this happens, the closer the same alternative world order. Another: China is vitally interested, write our British scientists, to fail the attack on Russian finance and high-tech. Because then China will know that these weapons do not work.
And even now, Chinese diplomats are confidently explaining to colleagues around the world that Western unity against Russia will be increasingly weak, and the cost of economic war will increase. Including because the United States is strengthening its home, and the bills are paid by the Europeans: for increased energy prices, for new weapons and refugees.
Not to mention, we repeat, for Beijing, everything that Westerners are working out on Russia is a visual aid for studying how soon all these innovations can be turned against China.
But what should the West do in such a situation? Well, it is clear that it would be good to try to delay the hostilities in Ukraine until next winter, and to strengthen our unity so that no one breaks the sanctions. And if so, then crush your own – everyone who is seen in sympathy for Moscow.
However, it is difficult, which means that one thing remains. As already mentioned, try to pull Beijing and Moscow apart, sow distrust in each other in their societies. Explain to Moscow that China is too big and that it will have to concede in everything. Tell China that in fact the West does not see Beijing in such a bad light and that something can be agreed upon.
But – see the beginning of our conversation – in Beijing they see very well that the American team has taken shape and is preparing for decades of confrontation. In general, the split strategy does not work. Will have to come up with another one.
Dmitry Kosyrev, RIA
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