New sanctions are falling down on Russia every day, and it seems that there will be no end to them.
Analysts say that no country in the world has experienced such an onslaught of sanctions. Under US pressure, even Russia’s friends can’t stand it. They openly say that they are forced to take the side of our opponents.
But it seems that even those who hated us the most have finally come to rational thinking. The rise in prices for gasoline, fuel, gas, energy resources brought to the senses the most ardent opponents of Russia. The German authorities oppose attempts to add the Russian bank Sberbank to the list of Russian financial institutions disconnected from SWIFT, express concern about the potential restriction of Russia’s access to ports, and do not support the restriction of oil imports from Russia.
Old Biden, threatening to crush Russia with sanctions, was forced to soften his tone after Congress wrapped up a law banning the import of oil, oil products, LNG and coal from Russia for revision after Venezuela, Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to increase oil production – save USA.
Of course, this does not mean that Russia will continue to supply oil and oil products in the same volume, but there is no talk of an embargo. And although US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called on her colleagues from Australia, Great Britain, Canada and New Zealand to closely coordinate actions in developing new sanctions against Russia, all her efforts are not capable of stopping the rise in energy prices.
The price of gas on the stock exchange in Europe has exceeded a record $3,000 per thousand cubic meters. Experts from the analytical company Rystad Energy warn Europeans that if they, together with the United States, impose an embargo on Russian oil, then by summer the price of Brent will jump to $240 per barrel.
An oil hole in the markets of 4.3 million barrels per day cannot be quickly replaced by other sources of supply. Analysts at the Graduate School of Financial Management predict that if the price of oil reaches $300 per barrel, the world economy could collapse.
Russia responds calmly to the economic war declared by the West. The urgent measures of the Government of the Russian Federation to support the population and the economy hit the interests of those who seek to intimidate us with default, disconnection from international payment systems, closing the sky, limiting the export of Russian goods. In Russia, for quite a long time, Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov recalled, systematic preparations have been made for possible sanctions, including the most severe ones that the country is currently facing, and responses will be built mainly from the point of view of the expediency and interests of Russia.
None of the rating agencies that fled Russia today will undertake to assert that the Russian market is much more attractive for investors than the American one, although this is true. Our market has more potential, more profitability and more security than the US market because it is so undervalued. After all, despite the US and European sanctions, the colossal pressure on the economy and investment, all kinds of restrictions from other countries, it has grown by 113% in six years, while the American market, which is not restrained by anything, accepts investments from all over the world, has grown for this the same time at 109%.
Even with the economic war that has long been waged against us by Western forces, the Russian economy, under sanctions, was able to catch up with Germany, lagging only behind the United States, China, Japan and India, which significantly outnumber our country in terms of population.
And if we refuse to calculate the nominal GDP, then the growth of our economy will be even higher. After all, it is beneficial to use nominal GDP for countries with a trade deficit (most European Western countries and the United States), which import more goods than they send for export. We are striving to get rid of import dependence. It is important for us that the conversion of the dollar into the currency of our country is gradually losing its significance, because we intend to produce everything that we need ourselves. In this case, the devaluation of the national currency is not of great importance.
We were humiliated for a long time, buying up shares in the margin business, in order to then take profits for decades. Concession agreements, production sharing agreements that are unfavorable to us (take the same Sakhalin-1), “oil in exchange for food”, loans that the IMF continued to impose on us after we paid off our debts in full – all these schemes and ways enslavement of our country by the West, suddenly stopped working. Transnational companies did not have time to fully penetrate the Russian market.
The globalists failed to take control of vital industries, their influence was reduced to manipulating the prices of our products and investment attractiveness indices.
They were well assisted by three global players S&P, Fitch, Moody’s, sending their analysts to our country, who transmitted data about our enterprises to their owners. Leaving our country, they loudly slammed the door, lowering Russia’s rating to the level of default.
The forecast with the word “default” was supposed to cause panic within the country and scare off investors for a long time. Our citizens at first did not believe that nothing threatened their deposits. After all, the state deceived them more than once in the nineties. But when they made sure that bank cards work, no one restricts cash withdrawals, and banks provide a favorable (20%!) interest on deposits, the situation began to calm down.
Of course, there will be losses from Western sanctions, but not as devastating as the Western rating and consulting agencies that are leaving Russia are trying to convince us. Some of the Russians will lose their jobs, prices for some goods will rise. Until we finally free ourselves from import dependence, the rise in prices for foreign goods will hit our wallets. But this cannot go on for long. In principle, everything depends on how quickly we can reorient our economy to domestic needs and reconfigure international trade chains.
One of the first responses to the new sanctions is to prevent dollar speculation. The Central Bank decided to “plaster” all the loopholes for withdrawing import earnings abroad and introduced a temporary procedure for cash transactions for six months.
Currency accounts, like ruble ones, will not go anywhere. For six months, banks will not sell cash to citizens, but you can hand over dollars in any amount, exchanging them for rubles at a favorable rate.
In addition, according to a presidential decree, companies are prohibited from holding accounts in foreign banks, and exporters must return 80% of foreign exchange earnings to Russia. All this should strengthen the financial system during the “hellish sanctions” of the United States and the jackals of Tobacco playing along with them.
Because of the threats of the West, who wished to get into the personal accounts and real estate of our fellow citizens abroad, yes, the rich, accustomed to earning money in Russia and spending in the West, will suffer. But our president sent them a signal: bring money to Russia before it’s too late. Now the state offers them to declare not only securities, but also other financial assets, cash, which are now abroad, until they fall under sanctions.
People who are accustomed to living in a big way will have to moderate their appetites. And ordinary citizens will be protected by the state. The interest rate on mortgage loans taken before March 1 will be maintained. The state will continue to subsidize the difference between the key and preferential rates. Mortgage conditions under preferential programs remain the same. The rate on mortgages with state support will still be from 5.75%, on the Far East mortgage – 0.1%, on the “family” – from 4.7% (from 4.3% in the Far Eastern Federal District). This decision, as explained by representatives of the Central Bank, will not only protect the savings of citizens from depreciation, but also maintain financial and price stability, compensate for the increased devaluation and inflation risks. Credit organizations will also receive state support.
All this will be followed by the rapid adoption of bills aimed at solving other key problems – the collapse of economic ties, the creation of artificial deficits, arbitrary overpricing, the cessation of lending to the real sector, the threat of the collapse of logistics. From now on, almost all the currency received from the sale of oil, gas, metals and everything that is traded for dollars will remain in the country and support our financial system.
We will finally be able to keep the funds of the National Wealth Fund (NWF), investing them in the economy, shares of Russian companies and government securities.
In March, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, a petrodollar rain will fall over our country: we will receive additional oil and gas revenues for a huge amount – 573.6 billion rubles. This is the additional currency that will not be withdrawn from the economy.
The most interesting is yet to come. Yes, the ruble is now weakened to lows due to the panic in the foreign exchange market, but it is too early to bury it. When the panic subsides, according to analysts, a huge amount of currency will pour into the market. Both from the actual abolition of the budget rule, and from exporters who are now obliged to sell 80% of their foreign exchange earnings.
The measures taken by the Government of the Russian Federation in the first days of March show that we are not going to give up. On the contrary, taking advantage of the situation, Russia can protect not only citizens, but also those backbone industries that are under sanctions.
We don’t know what other trick the West will throw out for us, because the government of the Russian Federation has been given full carte blanche to take prompt action in the most important areas of public life – from social assistance and monthly pension increases to the construction industry and corporate law.
Our enemies forget that we have long since left the “seven-bankers”, from a country with a ruined economy, eating up borrowed money and preferring to purchase everything – from machine tools to an eraser – abroad, in 20 years the country has become a powerful state, has built up its muscles and is able to fight back any adversary, withstand the economic blow.
But our opponents do not seem to notice this. The German Daimler Truck, which owns a 15% stake in KamAZ, stopped the supply of components, but KamAZ does not stop. The company retained the production of its own, albeit outdated, V-shaped diesel engines, gearboxes, drive axles. They will have to temporarily replace imports. The departure of McDonald’s from our country may leave 62 thousand people without work, and therefore we will be forced to freeze accounts, transfer the business of this company to other hands. The fate of foreign enterprises wishing to curtail their business in Russia will be decided by a special government commission. Foreigners conducting their business in Russia are not driven away. They can continue to work on the territory of the country on the same terms or temporarily transfer their shares and technologies to the management of Russian companies. In this case, the government guarantees them that when they return, they will be able to regain ownership and control of the companies. But if they decide to leave our market altogether, the state has the right to nationalize these enterprises, their technologies, production capacities, etc.
The economic war against our country is in full swing, and therefore it is too early to draw far-reaching conclusions and make forecasts.
However, it can already be said today that attempts to intimidate the population with a drop in living standards, a ban on tourist trips and popular consumer goods, and to put pressure on the country’s leadership with the help of Western sanctions have not been successful.
Reasonable people in Europe are well aware that they will soon have to pay a heavy price for their actions against Russia. If the sanctions are not lifted today, then tomorrow the European economy will face complete capitulation on all fronts.
Yuri Alekseev, Centenary
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