NATO will not help Ukraine “neither on the ground, nor in Ukrainian airspace”
On March 4, 2022, an extraordinary meeting of NATO foreign ministers took place in Brussels, dedicated to Russia’s “brutal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.” The meeting was attended by the Foreign Ministers of the member countries of the bloc, the head of EU diplomacy Josep Borrell, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Sweden, Finland and Ukraine were also invited.
As a result of this event, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg held a press conference. It is of interest from the point of view of clarifying the future plans of the alliance in connection with the situation in Ukraine. When asked about the creation of a no-fly zone over Ukrainian territory, Jens Stoltenberg, in particular, answered the following:
“At the same time, we, as NATO allies, have a responsibility to prevent this war from escalating beyond Ukraine. Because it will be even more dangerous, more destructive and cause even more human suffering. So, we have made it clear that we are not going to invade Ukraine either on the ground or in Ukrainian airspace. And, of course, the only way to introduce a no-fly zone is to send NATO aircraft, fighter jets into Ukrainian airspace, and then introduce this no-fly zone by shooting down Russian aircraft.
And our assessment is that we understand this desperation [of Ukraine]. But we also believe that if we did, we would end up with something that could end up in a full-scale war in Europe, involving many more countries and causing much more human suffering. So that’s why we’re making this painful decision to impose tough sanctions, to provide significant support, to increase support. But at the same time, without involving NATO forces directly in the conflict in Ukraine, either on the ground or in its airspace.”
The decision not to participate in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine was supported by all NATO member countries, without exception.
On March 4, 2022, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the same thing, only more accurately:
“Our task is to make sure that the conflict does not go beyond Ukraine.”
Thus, it can be stated that the issue of the US and NATO no-fly zone over Ukraine has been removed from the agenda. The only country that can establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine is Russia, which it did.
This NATO approach clearly upset Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He just couldn’t take the nerve. Zelensky on the same day made a video message and said the following:
“Today was a NATO summit, a weak summit, a confused summit. A summit that shows that not everyone considers the struggle for freedom for Europe the number one goal. NATO made a conscious decision not to close the skies over Ukraine.”
Further, Zelensky, as they say, got personal:
“All that the alliance has bothered to do today is to pass 50 tons of diesel fuel for Ukraine through its procurement system. I don’t know who you can protect, and whether you are able to protect your countries, the countries of the alliance: you won’t be able to pay off us with liters of fuel…”.
An interesting point. On March 4, 2022, the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, following an extraordinary meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the EU member states, said:
“We will not ask Zelensky to surrender, leave Kyiv, we will not ask him not to fight.” It seems, according to the EU, Zelensky should die a hero in the defense of Kyiv.
Let’s go back to Zelensky’s thesis:
“I don’t know who you can protect, and whether you are able to protect your countries, the countries of the alliance.” As you know, the North Atlantic Treaty of April 4, 1949 contains Article 5 on NATO’s collective self-defense. It is now often referred to by US officials, emphasizing their determination to ensure the security of their bloc allies on the European continent.”
Here is a quote from this article:
“The Contracting Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered as an attack against them as a whole and, therefore, agree that in the event that such an armed attack takes place, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Contracting Party or Contracting Parties subjected to such attack by immediately taking such individual or collective action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force in order to restore and subsequently maintain the security of the North Atlantic region.”
Thus, the use of armed force for collective self-defense is an option, and not an obligation of each NATO member country. This means that a member of the alliance may limit itself to economic sanctions in response to an armed attack on one or several countries, the use of armed force is not necessary.
Consequently, when such a situation arises, each member of the North Atlantic Alliance will determine the extent of its participation in collective self-defense. Someone will be ready to join the armed struggle, and someone will not be ready to do this, because they will not want to be hit on its territory by tactical or strategic nuclear weapons. A rather loose alliance is obtained.
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky spoke about this. If NATO has abandoned Ukraine, then it can abandon one of the members of the alliance. By the way, in August 2021, the United States and NATO abandoned Afghanistan, effectively handing it over to a terrorist organization. At the same time, Afghanistan had the official status of the main ally of the United States outside of NATO.
The decision of the North Atlantic Alliance not to involve NATO forces “directly in the conflict in Ukraine either on the ground or in its airspace” is reasonable. It does reduce the risk of a full-scale war in Europe, which could escalate into an all-out nuclear war.
In this regard, it should be noted that the sober approach of NATO is based on the real alignment of forces. Russia, like the Soviet Union in the past, maintains strategic nuclear parity with the United States. At the same time, over the past 20 years, our country has managed to create the most modern strategic and non-strategic nuclear forces in the world. As of December 2021, the share of modern weapons in the Russian nuclear triad reached a historical record of 89.1%.
In the European Theater of Operations, NATO has a significant conventional force superiority. At a press conference on March 4, 2022, the Secretary General of the alliance stated the following:
“We are deploying the NATO Response Force for the first time. And we have over 130 aircraft on high alert. And more than 200 ships from the Far North to the Mediterranean.”
However, Russia neutralizes this fact by having a sufficient number of non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons. According to open sources, our country has about two thousand tactical nuclear warheads. In a special military operation in Ukraine, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are actively using, in particular, Iskander operational-tactical missile systems, which have a range of up to 500 km. This missile system can also carry nuclear warheads with a yield of up to 50 kilotons of TNT.
It should be noted that on February 19, 2022, under the leadership of Russian President Vladimir Putin, a planned exercise of the strategic deterrence forces was held, during which ballistic and cruise missiles were launched.
A number of Russian experts reported that at the very beginning of Russia’s special military operation against Ukraine, due to the failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front, the United States and Britain began to use their electronic warfare units on the equipment of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. In addition, it is possible that one of the Russian military columns was destroyed not by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but by an air strike, presumably by American F-35 fighters.
It is possible that this is precisely why on February 27, 2022, by order of the President of the Russian Federation, the containment forces were transferred to a special mode of combat duty. The United States and its NATO allies received a clear signal that in the event of a further aggravation of the situation in the Ukrainian direction and direct military intervention on their part, the military-political leadership of Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons.
Thus, at the moment, direct military intervention by the United States and NATO in order to prevent the Russian special military operation in Ukraine is out of the question. External conditions allow Russia to complete this operation successfully.
Alexander Vladimirov, RUSSTRAT
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