What was the AFU on the eve of the Russian operation and why it is called a special one?
The results of the first days of the special military operation in Ukraine allow us to draw the first conclusions about how the Russian army is fighting and what kind of enemy it is up against. For many years now, many Russian media outlets have had the misconception that the Ukrainian armed forces are some kind of backward army, with outdated Soviet weapons, poorly equipped and unable to conduct modern active combat operations. It developed after Kiev’s military failures in 2014-2015, when weakly controlled AFU groups were surrounded and defeated at Ilovaysk and Debaltseve.
Eight years have passed since then. During that time, the Russian army has made a powerful leap forward and has become one of the most modern and combat-ready armies in the world, both in terms of equipment and combat experience. And how has the AFU changed over the years?
At the start of the special operation Ukrainian Armed Forces had 250 thousand personnel, and 1 million more were in the mobilization reserve. There were 2,808 tanks, 8,215 armored vehicles, 3,500 artillery systems and 230 aircrafts (planes, helicopters, UAVs) in service and storage depots.
As of February 2022, there were 145,000 soldiers directly in the ground forces. Another 60,000 or so were drafted from the reserve and assigned to the troops.
As for vehicles, the figures are as follows: tanks – 832; armoured combat vehicles – 1,425; artillery systems (122 and 152 mm) – 1,041; MLRS (300, 220 and 122 mm) – 348.
By all parameters, the AFU has become the third largest army in Europe after Russia and Turkey.
Over the past eight years Ukraine, with enormous financial assistance from the US and NATO, has been able to repair and modernize most of its armoured vehicles and carry out a major reorganization. And while it has not changed much in terms of overall equipment and armaments, it has changed considerably in terms of combat effectiveness.
First of all, with the help of the United States and NATO countries, Ukraine received modern closed digital communications. The combat control bodies have been modernized.
The striking units and formations received the modern outfit, night vision equipment, reconnaissance and target designation facilities. All this was immediately sent to Donbas, where it was tested and studied by the troops.
Of course, not all units were able to receive modern weapons, equipment and armoured vehicles. Part of the troops, especially in the west and centre, remained at the level of 2015. In essence, they are motorised infantry in trucks with reduced artillery fleets consisting of obsolete artillery systems. But the combat core of the ground forces – some 80,000 soldiers and officers – meets the requirements of modern combat. During the last two months the US and NATO countries have tried to saturate them as much as possible with modern American and British-made anti-tank weapons and portable anti-aircraft missile systems.
Even more powerful changes took place in the quality of the AFU. After 2014, a programme was launched to “strengthen” the AFU, under which soldiers who had fought in 2014-2015, especially members of Nazi battalions and members of the Right Sector (banned in Russia), were sent to military schools and academies, from where they returned to the troops as officers. Even today, most of the junior and mid-level officers are highly motivated nationalist commanders, which ensures the tenacity and resilience of the AFU.
The combat training of the AFU was conducted under the guidance of American and NATO instructors and was specifically “sharpened” to counter the Russian Armed Forces. Russian tactics were taken into account, Russian combat manuals were studied, and combat tactics with Russian units were practiced.
In fact, for all eight years the AFU has been created solely as a tool to counter one enemy – Russia. And every year this tool has been strengthened and improved. Ukraine received modern UAVs, preparations were made to purchase modern armoured vehicles, the production of self-designed cruise missiles and operational-tactical missiles, which would have a reserve for upgrading to medium-range missiles, was set up.
In 2023-2025, the modernisation of the Ukrainian air force was to begin, with the purchase and partial transfer to Ukraine of F-16, F-15 attack aircraft A-10, and the retraining of pilots for these types of aircraft. The Ukrainian Air Force was to start its own production of Turkish-designed UAVs. There had been talk of handing over several divisions of American Patriot SAMs to Ukraine.
But at the start of the operation, the air force remained the Achilles’ heel of the AFU. There were only a few dozen combat aircraft of various types, two dozen Bayraktar UAVs and several divisions of Buk and S-300 SAM systems, as well as a network of obsolete Soviet-made radars.
Another problem was the uninterrupted supply of fuel and lubricants, which Ukraine was not producing enough on its own and had to procure mainly from abroad. They were sufficient for peacetime combat training, but in warfare, with the destruction of fuel and lubricants bases, the shortage was critical. According to various estimates, reserves of petroleum, oil and lubricants were sufficient for 7-10 days of active combat operations.
This had to be solved by laying a network of army fuel lines from Romania and Poland and creating a network of protected storage facilities in the supply belt.
According to Western experts, by 2023-2024 the AFU had to reach a level that would guarantee Ukraine’s resilience in any conflict with Russia, and with Western support, it would inflict unacceptable damage. This was to ensure the displacement of pro-Russian forces from the Donbass region, which would mean its major geopolitical defeat.
To call things by their proper names, Ukraine was preparing; this was its “historic mission”.
After the first days of fighting have passed, one can preliminarily analyse – how does Russia’s modern army fight? Why, having virtually surrounded major cities such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol and Kherson, has it not launched an assault on them? What are the Russian troops waiting for?
The answer lies in the name of the current military operation – “special operation”.
How does it differ from the war? First of all, by the scale and nomenclature of combat use. In 2003, the Americans advanced through Iraq, as they claimed, with an “accelerated march” – 35 km per day – which they still consider their major success and proof of their military genius. But what was behind it? Let me recall: if any resistance appeared, they immediately suppressed it with all available weapons: from shock aircraft and cruise missiles to large-caliber artillery, tank fire and mortars, which resulted in enormous casualties among civilians in the quarters which were subject to attack. The US army literally cleared the way with fire, sometimes demolishing entire neighborhoods, as residents of Nassiriya, Najaf and Basra well remember. Baghdad has also suffered, despite the fact that it was actually taken as a result of collusion between Hussein and his generals behind his back.
The Russian Federation is now in its sixth day trying to convince the Ukrainian military command to stop covering up civilians and to give up the resistance in cities and towns. So far, our army has not used bomber aviation, large-calibre artillery or MLRS in urban areas, acting only with precision and high-precision weapons. At the same time, the Ukrainian armed forces are using all available weapons on us. They are firing guns, multiple-launch rocket launchers (MLRS) and anti-self-propelled grenades, which are deployed in dense urban settlements. They are firing from the courtyards of schools and hospitals.
All this says only one thing: no one was planning an easy walk to Kyiv. These are the tales of the Western media, deliberately launched to discredit the military operation we have launched. And the scale of the forces involved in the operation shows that the command is aware of how difficult a task the Russian army has to carry out. It is acting against a trained, well-armed, motivated enemy.
And this special operation could not be avoided, no matter how hard we tried. We were forced into it, pushing Ukraine forward into Donbas. We did not want this, but we must win. Because it is not about the AFU, not about Ukraine, but about the collective West, which has decided to expel Russia from 21st century history.
Vladislav Shurygin, Izvestia newspaper