Despite reports from the General Staff of the Russian Federation about the beginning of the withdrawal of Russian troops from the southern and western borders after the end of the exercises, the situation on the Russian-Ukrainian border continues to remain tense
U.S. and NATO officials have ignored the fact that a Russian attack on Ukraine – according to their own statements – should have already happened, and now they say that it can happen “at any moment” and “there are no signs of de-escalation.” The press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov actually announced the ongoing escalation. The Kremlin believes that “the danger of a forceful solution to the problem of Donbass is not decreasing”, and “the likelihood that Kiev will start a military operation in the Donbass is real and high”
Against this background, the fate of Ukraine itself remains unenviable, which, it seems, has already been abandoned by all wealthy people, and at least the entire left bank of the Don has prepared for the arrival of Russian troops – most Western embassies and organizations have been moved to Western Ukraine. Russian Senator Andrei Klimov drew attention to the fact that “Kyiv’s partners are splitting the country by transferring their diplomatic missions to Western Ukraine”, where some kind of “quasi-state entity” is being formed.
“I think it makes no sense to comment on the question of whether there will be a war or not. It has already become something like weather forecasts or oil prices – mauvais ton. I propose to pay attention to the fact that during the escalation that has been taking place on the pages of the Western media since the end of October 2021, the Americans, and the Europeans, in fact, agreed with the content of Vladimir Putin’s article about Ukraine. In it, the President of Russia says that Ukraine is a “fake” state formation, such a failed state is a “failed state,” political scientist Igor Yegorov said in an interview with Moskovskaya Gazeta.
The expert on international relations noted that exactly the same attitude towards Ukraine was demonstrated by both its elites, who, realizing that reports of Russian aggression were fake, left the country anyway, just in case, and Western states, which evacuated or moved their embassies, urged their citizens to leave, when this was not the case even with Afghanistan.
“Thus, a configuration is being created, from which it is clear that the divisions of Ukraine between European states, according to the historical experience of the divisions of the Commonwealth, are quite real. The first partition has already taken place, part of the Donbass and Crimea have left Ukraine. There is a question of the following sections, in which, of course, all the neighbors will want to participate,” said Igor Yegorov.
The interlocutor of the publication suggested that the second section would lead “to the accession of the left-bank Ukraine, together with Odessa, to Russia.” We are talking about Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kiev, Cherkasy, Kirovograd, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa regions, Yegorov noted.
“At the same time, it is possible that Belarus will lay claim to Chernihiv and part of the Kiev region – Russia may agree to such demands. In addition, Hungary and Romania will want to join the second section. A conflict is likely here: Hungary will definitely claim Uzhgorod with the Transcarpathian region, giving Romania only Chernivtsi, but this may not be enough for Bucharest”, the political scientist suggested.
Igor Yegorov stressed that a third, final partition of Ukraine is theoretically possible, during which a “small buffer state” will remain of it or it will cease to exist altogether.
“The scenario of the third section is only approximately understandable, it raises much more questions. Poland will gladly take Volyn, Lvov, Rivne, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. In this case, the question will arise with the remaining three – Khmelnitsky, Vinnitsa and Zhytomyr. Until recently, I would have said that Russia could join them. But, given the degree of propaganda over the past 30 years, it is far from certain that the population of these regions will immediately accept their entry into Russia, whether the Russian authorities want to mess with them is a question. Then these areas can become part of Poland or, most likely, some kind of buffer state, so that everyone is calmer. The international community is already ready to accept the loss of all of Ukraine, it has stated that it will only impose sanctions against Russia. And when it comes to joint divisions with the Europeans, there will be no sanctions. Don’t worry about the population, I studied the history of Alsace and Lorraine well, there was panic every time – “oh, the horror, the French”, “oh, the horror, the Germans”. Only 15-20 years of state propaganda and most of the population changed their national identity. Today, people are already changing their gender, and they will turn from Ukrainians into Russians, Poles and Hungarians – you won’t have time to notice”, the political scientist summed up.
Ukraine will inevitably be divided, and Western countries, which now act as allies of Ukraine, will take an active part in this process. This opinion was expressed by military publicist Vladlen Tatarsky in a commentary for IA Regnum.
“It is not important whether Ukraine will withdraw from the Minsk agreements as a result of this crisis. Ukraine will suffer a sad fate, it has already been sentenced, and sentenced by its Western “partners,” Tatarsky is sure.
The same opinion is shared by the former deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Yevgeny Muraev.
“Poland is looking at us, it wants justice and take away Galicia. Hungarians are investing in Transcarpathia. <…> Romanians in Izmail. <…> Again, Russia and Belarus have expressed their opinion. It’s just that if we start a global confrontation, they will simply divide us”, he said on the air of the Ukraine-24 TV channel, adding that many Ukrainians had the opinion that “a terrible end is better than endless horror”, and such a position can lead long transition period.
Moscow newspaper