According to Emmanuel Navon, an expert at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, the EU countries are getting tougher rhetoric against Putin, but they are doing it slowly and “reluctantly”
Now Putin speaks directly with Biden – Europe’s participation in resolving the Ukrainian issue is becoming less and less tangible. At the same time, the two weak links in transatlantic unity against Russia and its president are Germany and France.
The quiet but obvious support of Scholz for Nord Stream-2 and the decision of French President Emmanuel Macron to run for another term in a country where pro-Russian sentiment is strong are indicators of the unwillingness of these countries to openly oppose Russia.
“Switching to silent mode”, refusing to postpone the opening of the gas pipeline and supply weapons to Ukraine, actually speaks of Scholz’s neutral attitude in resolving the Ukrainian issue. Unlike his predecessor Merkel, Scholz is a more comfortable interlocutor for Putin because he is deprived of her authority and is a member of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), historically more positive towards Russia.
Indeed, Merkel’s authority contributed to the dissemination and approval of her position among the EU countries after the aggravation of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014. Now, Olaf Scholz’s voice is not only quiet, it’s completely inaudible.
The behavior of the former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, a member of the Social Democrats who was very sympathetic to Russia and for many years led the consortium that built Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, also plays a significant role. In addition to managing Nord Stream projects, Schroeder joined the board of directors of the Russian gas giant Gazprom. Moreover, Schroeder recently accused Ukraine of “saber-rattling.”
The dismissal of General Kai-Achim Schönbach because of statements about the Crimea also adds fuel to the fire. Although Schönbach was fired for his comments, he expressed an opinion shared by many decision makers in Germany.
There is no French equivalent for the German expression Russlandversteher (understanding Russia; a concept followed by the SPD), but there is a French equivalent for such an attitude. Indeed, former French Prime Minister François Fillon joined the board of directors of Sibur, the Russian petrochemical giant, thus entering into a kind of “financial” relationship with Putin.
Unlike their German counterparts, the French conservatives are not unanimous Atlanticists—far from it. Fillon, who ran for president in 2017 as a Gaullist candidate, is a Russophile. Gaullist foreign policy has always been aimed at reducing France’s dependence on the United States. Thus, Charles de Gaulle pulled France out of NATO military command in 1966.
During the 2003 Iraq crisis, former French President Jacques Chirac (himself a Gaullist) criticized Eastern European governments about to join the European Union for daring to show support for the United States. France has built a united front against the war in Iraq with Russia and Germany.
Macron is not a Gaullist, although Gaullist traditions inspire his foreign policy. He hardly contributed to the demonstration of a united front against Russia. On the contrary, two years ago he called NATO a “mechanism with a dead brain” and called for a “dialogue” with Russia.
Like Chirac two decades ago, Macron is pushing the idea of a European army, which the Americans constantly oppose as an idea that could undermine NATO.
While Scholz was in Washington, Macron flew to Moscow and Kiev. While Macron’s efforts to defuse the crisis are sincere, his diplomacy is not without a connection to the upcoming French elections. The French presidential election is due in April, and Macron cannot afford to go against French public opinion, which is divided, with strong sympathies for Russia that transcend right and left.
Center-right presidential candidate Valerie Pekress is a moderate conservative committed to NATO. However, other contenders with clear views, both on the right and on the left, are more sympathetic to Russia than to the United States. Among them are Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour on the right and Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left. All three pledged to withdraw France from NATO.
Putin knows he can count on French public opinion.
Even though the rhetoric is gradually getting tougher – Macron and Scholz are beginning to warn that if a military escalation by Russia leads to the destabilization of a neighboring state, the response will be really tough – there are all prerequisites for a diplomatic solution to the issue. Moreover, the expert put forward the following opinion: one of the possible explanations for Putin’s behavior is that he is using the resulting escalation to lift the economic sanctions imposed against Russia after the 2014 crisis. If such a “man-made escalation” comes down to the lifting of sanctions, a compromise may be at hand.
Source: Jewich News Syndicate