Scientists of the National Academy of Sciences predicted that the population of Ukraine by the end of XXI century will halve – from 44 to 22 million people. And there is no hope that the forecast will be false
According to scientists, the Ukrainian society is aging fast. The mortality rate in the country is high and exceeds the European level, while the birth rate is low.
As the State Statistics Service reported earlier, in the first half of 2021, 132,595 children were born in Ukraine, 5% less than in the same period of 2020 and 11.5% less than in the first half of 2019. The death rate since the beginning of 2021 was 487,855, which is 14.3% higher than in 2020.
The population decline of the country was also confirmed by the UN. By 2050, experts warn, the number of Ukrainians may decrease to 35 million. Among the reasons for the population decline are the same reasons: low birth rate, high mortality rate, and high rate of migration.
The experts believe that the decrease of population can be stopped by a stable political and financial system that would ensure social protection of the population.
Low living standards and poor economic prospects are forcing many Ukrainians to flee the country and work abroad. According to the director of the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Research, Nadra Ptukha, we need to create a stable political and financial system. According to Ella Libanova, at least 3 million and as many as 5 million Ukrainians have left the country permanently because they don’t see their future in Ukraine.
People from Ukraine go to Russia for a better life, as well as to Poland, the Baltics and other EU countries. In Poland, for example, the number of Ukrainian guest workers has doubled or tripled since 2014, with about 1.5 million Ukrainians now working in the country. In addition, according to Andrii Deshchytsia, Ukraine’s ambassador to Poland, there are many Ukrainian students – about 50,000. Not all of them are eager to return to Ukraine to build their careers after graduation.
According to Oleksandr Gladun, deputy director of the Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, the aging population and low birthrate are present in most European countries, where the problem is being solved by migrants.
“Most likely it will be the same for us. Ukraine will be interested in migrants from Asian countries, Caucasus, former Soviet republics. And through this, perhaps, it will be possible to stabilise the number of population. So far there are no prerequisites for this to happen by virtue of a natural factor”, – the expert noted.
However, now it is hard to say how welcoming Ukraine will be towards migrants. The country has tried to shield itself as much as possible from resolving the migration crisis on the Polish-Belarusian and Lithuanian-Belarusian borders. When Bundestag MP Niels Schmid, a representative of the Social Democratic Party faction, suggested that Ukraine should accept refugees, he received a harsh response from the Ukrainian National Security and Defence Council (NSDC).
“At a meeting of the NSDC we considered this statement. We have a proposal to the German Social Democrats to take them home two, three, five at a time. If there is not enough space, they have an office there in the Bundestag – let them take them home,” the head of the NSDC, Oleksiy Danilov, said.
Moreover, Ukraine is very scared that the country might lose its visa-free regime with the European Union due to the situation with migrants. According to political analyst Bohdan Petrenko, migrants may enter Ukrainian territory through the “porous” border, from where they will rush to Poland.
And indeed: according to the International Organization for Migration, a large part of illegal migrants see Ukraine as an entry point to the European Union, and do not plan to linger in the country. We can understand them. If their own citizens seek a better life in Europe, why stop at Ukraine?
Christina Zhalova, Ukraina.ru