The imposition of sanctions meant to “de-escalate tensions on the part of Russia” or “encourage the compromises needed to achieve war” is supposed to be counterproductive.
Confirmation of the fact that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO could be an effective diplomatic measure – American experts admit that the entry of this country into the alliance is almost impossible, at least for a long time.
Trying to eliminate flexibility on Ukraine’s NATO membership thus cuts off the possibility of a compromise that would require no material sacrifice other than symbolic, but would avoid war.
Regarding the imposition of sanctions, the problem is that the draft law requires the application of a full set of sanctions on an all-or-nothing basis, which is extremely difficult to lift – this sharply narrows the ability to relate them to the nature of the Russian provocation and use the lifting of sanctions as an incentive to “improve behavior of Russia” (meaning the weakening of the escalation).
The bill requires a full set of sanctions if the administration finds that “Russia is engaged in… a significant escalation of hostilities or hostilities in or against Ukraine” and “such escalation has the purpose or effect of undermining, overthrowing, or dissolving the government of Ukraine… or interfering with sovereignty or territorial integrity of Ukraine”.
Thus, the full range of sanctions can be triggered by actions far from Russian invasion or occupation, if such actions appear to “undermine” the government of Ukraine or interfere in any way with its sovereignty. A cyberattack, or perhaps even a propaganda broadcast to Ukraine, could be interpreted as satisfying the requirements of this conclusion.
The draft law does not seek to work for an agreement based on a compromise with Russia. Instead, there is a widespread assumption that the US can simply impose its will on Russia, despite the fact that the legislation does not provide for a massive deployment of US troops. Instead of laying the groundwork for a diplomatic solution, the bill appears to be aimed at radically narrowing the space for diplomacy, which could cause an interstate collapse.