German coalition experiences a split on the eve of crucial talks with Moscow
German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock is making her first foreign visits to Kiev and Moscow. The visits will take place against the backdrop of Russia’s talks with the US and NATO and accusations of preparations for a “Russian invasion” of Ukraine. How will the active opponent of Nord Stream 2 talk to Russia, and will Berlin dare to take on an independent role in creating a new security architecture in Europe?
The day before, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock said Berlin wanted a meaningful relationship with Russia. “During my talks in Moscow it will be important for me to make my position clear. The new federal government wants substantive and stable relations with Russia. The list of conflict topics that we have to talk about is long,” the diplomat said.
However, before visiting Moscow on January 18, where Berbock is scheduled to hold talks with Sergey Lavrov, the German foreign minister will arrive in Kiev. On Monday, she will meet President Volodymyr Zelenski and her counterpart Dmytro Kuleba. The meetings will discuss the situation in Donbas, tensions on the Russian-Ukrainian border and bilateral relations, TASS reported.
A few days earlier, Berbock said that “strengthening Europe’s role in the world requires more than management of current crises, it also requires long-term strategies and planning”, and therefore “we are working within the European Union on a so-called strategic compass, which we will discuss in detail with the defence ministers”.
“This strategic compass is intended to show the EU and its member states a clear direction for future security policy. In relation to autocratic actors such as Russia and China in particular, it is important: if Europe follows a common course and acts as one, it is a heavyweight, and if it acts disjointed, it struggles in its weight class”, – she added.
For his part, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, after meeting with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in Berlin, stressed the importance of continuing to use all negotiating channels with Moscow, Deutsche Welle reported. Scholz also called for “opening up prospects for Europe to build a common security architecture with Russia”. “We want joint security, this necessarily includes the territorial integrity of states,” he said.
Notably, in June last year, then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, before meeting French President Emmanuel Macron, also stressed that dialogue with Moscow was necessary to build a security architecture in Europe.
“Russia is a big challenge for us, but also a big continental neighbour of the European Union, we have to make sure that we have eliminated all hybrid threats, but on the other hand we have a big interest from the EU. If we want security and stability in the EU, we must stay in dialogue with Russia, no matter how difficult”, – the German leader pointed out.
Furthermore, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder also called for “taking Russia’s security interests seriously, at least more seriously than they have been taken into account so far”. Thus, the idea of a “common security architecture” has long-standing roots for today’s German political elites.
“Above all, the current visits of the German foreign minister to Kiev and Moscow signify Germany’s intention to relaunch the Normandy quartet. Ms. Berbock’s main aim is to persuade Russia and Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table again. But there are a number of difficulties here”, – said German political analyst Alexander Rahr.
“Russia would like to see in Germany a real arbiter who not only criticises Moscow, but is also able to put pressure on Kiev that violates the Minsk agreements. However, it is unlikely that Berbock will go for this, because the new government has fixed support for Ukraine in its programme. So one should not expect that the upcoming negotiations will lead to any shift in this regard,” the expert lamented.
“In addition, the German press has been literally hysterical in recent days about Russia allegedly creating tension on the border with Ukraine. So there are calls for it to be punished in every possible way by closing Nord Stream 2 and so on. This background is putting strong pressure on German politicians”, – the political analyst said. He also reminded that the issue of Nord Stream-2 is still dividing the German government. The information is also confirmed by foreign media. In particular, according to the Financial Times, “the Russian pipe fuels a rift in the German coalition amid tensions in Ukraine,” with these disagreements weakening Germany’s position in the European Union.
“If Berbock shows toughness by deliberately defending Ukraine’s position, Lavrov simply won’t talk to her: they’ll have tea and part ways. In addition, it should be borne in mind that today is the anniversary of Navalny’s return to Russia. Probably, Berbok will bring it up at the talks in Moscow, which also narrows the window for normalizing relations,” Rahr suggested.
“Therefore, I expect some pragmatic steps and understanding from the Scholz-Putin meeting rather than from Berbock’s visit to Russia. She will probably use the meeting to improve her image, because she doesn’t have a very high rating in Germany. She needs to show that she can flick and criticize Moscow. The German press will be delighted with her anti-Russian statements”, – the interlocutor added.
That said, according to Rahr, it would be ideal for Russia if Germany actually took on the role of arbitrator or mediator in relations between Russia and the US, playing its own special role in the matter. “Then Berlin would be able to normalise relations with Moscow and move away from pro-American positions. But so far there has been no movement for this. Germany still maintains a transatlantic course in foreign policy,” he notes.
“The new German government is really trying to preserve Germany’s leading role within the Normandy format. As it happens, Merkel was at its origins and it remains an important area of German foreign policy. Therefore, Germany’s relations with Ukraine and Russia are important, as well as European security issues”, – agrees Andrei Kortunov, director general of the Russian Council on Foreign Affairs (RIAC).
What kind of “baggage” Berbok comes to Moscow with largely depends on her visit to Kiev. “Will there be any progress on the Minsk agreements given the current situation and to what extent is Kiev ready to implement the decisions taken at the last Normandy quartet summit in December 2019? So far there is no clarity on this,” the political analyst believes. –
Besides, as a human rights advocate, Berbok may have her own questions about language policy and the observance of human rights in Ukraine.”
“Therefore, I think that Berbok will urge the Russian side to resume the work of the Normandy format and possibly propose a ministerial meeting or a summit. But the question for Russia is whether it will agree to this proposal, given that the decisions of the previous summit have not been fully implemented, to put it mildly”, – Kortunov noted.
And since Germany plays a special role in Europe, Russia will have to focus on it one way or another, including in the framework of negotiations on security guarantees.
“There is essentially no one else to talk to in Europe right now: Emmanuel Macron is facing a tough re-election, so all his attention is focused on France’s internal problems, and Britain has left the EU”, – the interlocutor explained.
“The main question is whether Germany is ready to make any proposals that differ from the American position. At one time, Frank-Walter Steinmeier proposed to restart the dialogue on conventional arms control in Europe, which aroused some interest in Moscow. But to what extent is Berbock prepared to fix the German position beyond what we have heard from the USA and NATO in Geneva and Brussels? We should not forget that she is an unpredictable person, and with her own views on European security”, – Kortunov concluded.
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