In negotiations, Russia and the United States will have to look back at China
Another international heavyweight, China, will be invisibly present at the upcoming talks between Russia and the United States. It will be especially difficult for Biden to dismiss his influence. What are the Chinese interests in this case, to what extent do they coincide with the Russian ones – and why could Beijing still be dissatisfied with the results of the negotiations?
In a matter of days, Russian-American negotiations on strategic guarantees will start, which will take place both in the bilateral (Russia-US) and expanded (Russia, US and NATO) formats. And they promise to be very difficult. It is extremely difficult for Washington to accept the Russian proposals, because this would mean that the United States recognizes Russia as an equal player and abandons the sacred principle of American exclusivity.
Foreseeing that the United States could play a game of “negotiations for the sake of negotiations,” Vladimir Putin initially demanded that the discussions be constructive, so that the Americans do not “chat up” problematic issues. This demand was repeated during the New Year’s phone call, which the Russian leader made to his American counterpart. Moscow does not need chatter, but movement towards a result – a written agreement that will spell out clear rules for Russian-American interaction and security guarantees.
Will they play the game?
However, the United States may try to play a different game with Russia. It is not to simulate negotiations, but to promote the negotiation process. Regularly voice any mini-compromises reached in press releases, demonstrate the resolution of the most controversial issues. Outline the results of standard negotiations for the negotiation process (within the framework of which Moscow softens its position on some issues – for example, refuses to demand the withdrawal of all American nuclear weapons to the United States, limiting itself only to the need to withdraw from Europe, – in return, receiving concessions from Washington on others).
At first glance, this game is dangerous for the United States. Significant segments of the American foreign policy establishment, European allies from among the globalists and representatives of the Eastern European elites, the biased press – all of them oppose any significant concessions to Russia. All of them will regard these concessions as Biden’s steps towards surrender, as a result of which the incumbent will be subjected to harassment, which, in turn, will complicate the situation for the ruling Democrats on the eve of the midterm elections to Congress in 2022.
However, the tactical risks of such behavior fade in the face of the potential for strategic gain. Namely, introducing a split in Russian-Chinese relations.
I gave birth to you
The fact is that today one of the main fears in the Washington corridors of power is the prospects for a military-political alliance between Moscow and Beijing. Which, according to American experts, has almost taken place.
“China supports the aggression of Russia (in Ukraine – approx. VZGLYAD), and Russia supports the aggression of China (in the South China Sea – approx. VZGLYAD). Beijing and Moscow are coordinating their foreign policy and have been conducting joint military exercises since 2005. In August 2021, for the first time ever, Russian soldiers used Chinese weapons in an exercise, demonstrating their compatibility (with Russian – VZGLYAD). The United States must recognize that the Chinese and Russian armed forces will fight as one”, writes The Hill.
And, oddly enough, the Americans gave birth to this alliance. It was Washington that did everything to deny Russia its European and pan-European ambitions (expressed, for example, in the creation of a collective security system from Lisbon to Vladivostok).
It was Washington, in the fight against the Russian Federation, that began to abuse its control over world financial institutions (dollars, the system of payments, etc.), giving rise to the Kremlin’s desire to either create its own systems, or to support alternative Chinese ones to the American ones.
It was Washington that took a course towards tough confrontation with the PRC – moreover, opposition at the official level. In December, the United States adopts a military budget of $770 billion, of which $7 billion goes to the so-called. The Pacific Containment Program, which officially aims to contain China.
Thus, America suppressed the hopes of the Beijing leadership that the Washington elites would “get over it” with sinophobia – and, accordingly, strengthened the positions of those Chinese officials who advocated a more aggressive foreign policy, since “there is nowhere to retreat – Beijing is behind.” Including for joint actions with Russia to land the United States and forcing them to develop global rules of the game. We are talking about both the notorious exercises and the creation of alternative financial institutions to the American ones, as well as the convergence of positions on the class legal issues of world politics (the same Iranian).
And formally, this cooperation continues. The Chinese media really liked the demands from Vladimir Putin to the Americans to end pressure on the Russian Federation and the PRC, and the leader of the PRC, Xi Jinping, officially supported the draft Russian agreements on security guarantees to be signed with the US and NATO.
However, if you read these projects carefully, then they are not talking about global norms, but about the practical development of the rules of the game in the European theater of Russian-American interaction. The “global” clauses of the agreements (for example, the return of all American nuclear weapons to American territory) are, in the opinion of experts, not so important for Russia and can be exchanged for concessions from the States in the Ukrainian direction.
Will not be allowed
As a result, China may find itself in a situation where Russia and the United States will conclude a separate truce. Or, more importantly, China may consider that Russia and the United States are close to such a truce due to the very simulation of progress in the negotiation process that the Americans are organizing.
And how will Beijing behave then? Yes, the Chinese can demand that their interests be taken into account as well – as they are proposing on nuclear issues.
“We noticed that Russia and the United States are conducting a strategic dialogue. First, I would like to say that China welcomes the extension of START III, which was an extremely important step that the United States opposed during the Donald Trump administration. Secondly, we do not believe that this is enough, because even after the extension of START III, the United States and Russia together possess more than 90 percent of the nuclear weapons existing on Earth”, said Fu Cong, director of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s Arms Control Department.
An alternative to Chinese non-participation is the accelerated forging of new nuclear swords. The Americans believe that by 2030 it may already have about 1000 warheads (now, according to various estimates, it has from 200 to 350 warheads). A striking difference from the forecasts made by the Pentagon in 2020 (then it was believed that China would bring the number of its warheads to only 400 units within 10 years).
Chinese officials, in turn, assure that all these figures are exaggerated – according to them, it is not about building up, but about “modernization.” Even now, China can threaten other “modernizations” if it is not allowed to negotiate on security.
However, most likely they will not allow it. Russia does not need this – the negotiations on the European theater are so complicated and confusing that if we add the Far Eastern one, the format will simply collapse under the weight of unsolvable problems and the interweaving of conflicting interests. This is all the more unnecessary for the United States – America initiated the negotiation process with Moscow precisely in order to free up resources to contain China.
In addition, achieving a US-China compromise is much more difficult than a US-Russian one. Beijing, unlike Moscow (which only defends its sovereignty and its sphere of responsibility along the borders), is really challenging the United States for the throne of the world leader.
Of course, Russia will try to smooth over Chinese discontent through consultations and the maximum possible consideration of Chinese interests in the course of these negotiations. However, in Beijing, the sediment, as they say, will remain. A fly in the ointment in the honey of Russian-Chinese relations, which Biden will so carefully put there. If, of course, you follow the path of simulating progress.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of the Financial University, VZGLYAD