On December 17, 2021, the Russian Foreign Ministry published on its website the Agreement on Security Measures between the Russian Federation and NATO member states and the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States on Security Assurances
These are, of course, the draft documents that are proposed for discussion during the negotiations of the respective formats.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s instruction to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to concentrate diplomatic efforts in this area was announced during an enlarged session of the Foreign Ministry board on November 18, 2021:
“It is necessary already to raise the question, Sergey Viktorovich, it is necessary to raise the question of seeking to provide Russia with serious long-term guarantees to ensure our security in this direction, because Russia cannot exist like this and constantly think about what may happen there tomorrow.”
However, the preparation of the texts of the above-mentioned documents became possible only after the negotiations via video link between the presidents of Russia and the US on December 7, 2021. In response to concerns expressed by Joe Biden about the allegedly “threatening” nature of Russian troop movements near Ukrainian borders, Vladimir Putin noted that responsibility should not be shifted to Russia, as it is NATO that is making dangerous attempts to develop Ukrainian territory and building military capabilities near Russian borders.
Our president also expressed a strong interest in obtaining reliable, legally binding guarantees that preclude NATO’s eastward expansion and the deployment of offensive offensive weapons systems in Russia’s neighbouring countries. The US and Russian leaders further agreed to instruct their representatives to engage in substantive consultations on these sensitive issues.
In order to make the consultations effective and result in the signing of relevant documents, the Russian Foreign Ministry prepared drafts of the Agreement on Security Measures with NATO and of the Security Guarantees Treaty with the U.S.
Let us look at the main points of these documents. Here are some of the most important quotes from the Agreement on Security Measures between the Russian Federation and the member states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization:
Article 4: “The Russian Federation and all the Parties which were Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation on 27 May 1997 shall not station their armed forces and armaments on the territory of all other European States respectively, in addition to the forces deployed on that territory on 27 May 1997.
Article 5: “Members shall exclude the deployment of intermediate-range and shorter-range land-based missiles in areas from which they are capable of engaging targets on the territory of other Members”.
Article 6: “The Parties, which are Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, undertake to exclude the further enlargement of NATO, including the accession of Ukraine, as well as other states.
Article 7: “The Parties, which are North Atlantic Treaty Organisation Member States, undertake not to conduct any military activities in the territory of Ukraine, as well as other States of Eastern Europe, Transcaucasia and Central Asia.
The text of the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on security guarantees contains the following essential paragraphs:
Article 4: “The United States undertakes to preclude further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, to refuse to admit to the alliance states formerly members of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
The United States shall not establish military bases on the territory of states formerly part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics which are not members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, use their infrastructure for any military activity or develop bilateral military cooperation with them.”
Article 5: “The Parties shall refrain from the deployment of their armed forces and armaments, including as part of international organisations, military alliances or coalitions, in areas where such deployment would be perceived by the other Party as a threat to their national security, except such deployment within the national territories of the Parties.
The Parties shall refrain from the flight of heavy bombers equipped for nuclear or non-nuclear weapons, and from the presence of surface combatant ships of all classes, including those in alliances, coalitions, and organisations, in areas, respectively, outside national airspace and outside national territorial waters from which they can engage targets in the territory of the other Party.
Article 6: “The Parties undertake not to deploy land-based intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles outside their national territory, or in areas of their national territory from which such weapons are capable of engaging targets in the national territory of the other Party.
Article 7: “The Parties shall exclude the deployment of nuclear weapons outside their national territory, and shall return such weapons already deployed outside the national territory at the time of entry into force of this Treaty to the national territory. The Parties shall eliminate all existing infrastructure for the deployment of nuclear weapons outside the national territory.
Obviously, the main one is the Safeguards Treaty with the United States. And the signing of this treaty is primary. This approach is dictated by life itself and the balance of power in the world. Strategic nuclear parity is being maintained between the United States and Russia. It is the US that is the real leader of NATO because of its military, political and economic capabilities. Recently, the term has even emerged that NATO is ‘US +’.
If Russia succeeds in reaching an agreement with the United States, it means that the Security Arrangement with NATO will be signed automatically. If there are problems with signing the agreement, it will only indicate Washington’s unwillingness to sign this security deal.
It should be noted that Russia has set very strict and clear conditions in the documents. However, one should not look at them only from our country’s point of view, because Russia also undertakes the same obligations. That is, both sides benefit from this deal in terms of security and avoiding a large-scale armed conflict: both Russia and the US and its allies.
This is true if both sides recognise each other’s right to equal security. If we treat the other side (Russia) as an unequal partner and try to solve the issues of its (the US and NATO) security at its expense, then we should call the above documents an ultimatum to Russia. That is what some Western officials rushed to do.
Thus, the main task of Russia at the first stage of working with these documents is to ensure the status of an equal partner in the eyes of the US and its NATO allies. This is likely to be difficult to achieve in the first iteration, but in the second iteration, following preparatory or real actions by Russia to create military and other threats primarily to the United States, the treaty-making capacity of Western partners should increase.
The question of course arises. What will Russia do if insurmountable difficulties arise with the signing of these documents? To see a list of potential Russian measures to compensate for the threats to our national security, just look at the text of the Security Treaty with the US, only to remove the verbs “abstain”, “undertake” and “exclude”.
As Konstantin Gavrilov, the head of the Russian delegation at the Vienna talks on military security and arms control issues, recently said: “Everybody understands everything very well, a moment of truth is coming in the relations between Russia and NATO. We cannot keep stepping on Russia’s sore points, we have to decide… The conversation must be serious, and everyone in NATO understands very well, despite all the strength and power, that concrete political steps have to be taken, otherwise the alternative is Russia’s military and technical and military responses.”
Thus, as Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Grushko put it on 20 December 2021: “Our proposals are very clear. The time of half-tones, of taking their word for it – they are gone”.
The catchphrase which was coined in 1941-1942 during the defence of Moscow during the Great Patriotic War, “Great is Russia, and there is no retreat – Moscow is behind us!” As NATO’s military infrastructure draws nearer to Russia’s borders and the flight time of enemy missiles decreases accordingly, it is now becoming relevant.
Alexander Vladimirov, RusStrat