Biden will present this as a necessary payment for Putin’s refusal from the “attack on Ukraine”, about which all Western media have been writing for the last month.
However, no evidence was presented that such an attack was being prepared.
But, nevertheless, the White House “sold the air” – in response to the alleged “Putin’s promise not to attack Ukraine” (which, apparently, he was not going to do), they convinced Congress not to impose sanctions on Nord Stream-2 (which was very difficult).
And now the main thing.
Many observers perceive all the movements of Russia from the point of view of the fact that it wants to “seize Ukraine.”
Although the whole logic of the Kremlin’s actions indicates quite the opposite.
Moscow’s strategy is not to “capture Ukraine”, but to “forget about Ukraine.”
Not in informational terms (the air of federal TV channels will continue to be filled with Ukraine as a “bad example” for Russians), but in real political and, especially, economic terms.
As Russia once forgot about Latvia. A huge range of Russian goods was exported through Riga and Ventspils in the 90s and early 2000s. But then a port was built near St. Petersburg and that was the end of it.
And Russia became completely indifferent to what they say in Riga about the “Soviet occupation”.
The Russian Federation wants to come to this in relation to Ukraine.
There are four main problems along this path:
1. Donbass. Here the problem falls into two parts. The first is the threat of an offensive by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. It is solved by articulating the threat of a “response” from Russia (including articulating it to the Americans). The second is what to do with the part of Donbass not controlled by Ukraine, given the understanding that the Minsk agreements will not be implemented in the near future. The solution here is that the local economy is fully integrated into the Russian one. Through the implementation of their management at industrial enterprises with the right to legally sell products on the Russian market (more on this by the link in the first comment).
2. Ukraine’s accession to NATO and / or the deployment of foreign troops on the country’s territory. There are no concrete decisions here yet, but the dialogue with the Americans, as the last meeting showed, is underway. And at the moment, the consolidated position of the West is that there is no need to take Ukraine into the alliance yet. And if there is no global military exacerbation, this position is unlikely to change in the coming years.
3. Water to Crimea. It is not solved without problems. But there are plans.
4. Gas transit. In fact, it is the main problem for Russia on the way to “forget about Ukraine”. But it is being solved at the expense of Nord Stream-2. And the negotiations between Biden and Putin actually gave the green light to the gas pipeline. And this is the key point – Russia will receive tens of billions of dollars from gas exports regardless of what happens in Ukraine.
And Moscow, as Dmitry Medvedev wrote in Kommersant, will be able to wait a long time after that, until the power and political situation in Ukraine changes, which will make it possible to return to the normalization of relations between the countries.