Analytical article from the Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita
Withdrawal of troops from Poland is not yet a final decision of the White House. But surprisingly quickly it may become one. Washington has spoken for the first time about the possibility of withdrawing US troops from Poland, in response to a “progressive violation of the principles of democracy and state law”.
The warning came from Heather Conley, head of the German Marshall Fund, one of the most influential think tanks on the Potomac. With no reaction to the actions taken so far by both America and the EU to stop the “erosion of democracy” on the Vistula River, she argued, the US should consider changing its approach.
– Perhaps we should consider changing the deployment of troops in the region”, – Conley said.
How seriously should this warning be taken? The statement was made during a meeting of the Senate Helsinki Committee, the institution that ultimately decides the form of military cooperation with Poland. But of course Conley herself did not decide on these words without consulting representatives of the Joe Biden administration: the German Marshall Fund has close relations with the American authorities. It can therefore be concluded that this is a kind of trial balloon released by the White House to see whether the authorities in Warsaw will come to their senses and try to restore the rule of law.
Conley’s statement was made in the presence of three Democratic senators. Although none of them has yet endorsed such a position, they have not spoken out against it. Nor did other representatives of leading US think tanks present at the meeting: the American Enterprise Institute or Freedom House.
The broader context also raises concerns for Poland. Biden is not only putting the issue of democracy on a knife edge because of the events in our country. Local elections in Virginia showed how realistic it is for Republicans to regain their majority in Congress next year and in the White House two years later. And we are talking about a party that, not least in Biden’s view, poses a growing threat to democracy in the States themselves. Donald Trump’s undermining of the 2020 election results is the best proof of this.
Promoting democracy and consolidating US allies around it is also America’s strongest weapon against China. It is about showing that authoritarian methods of governing are not more effective in the long term. Perhaps the alliance with Poland is worth sacrificing on the altar of such a titanic struggle – more and more people in Washington are wondering.
Finally, limiting the number of US troops in Poland could be part of a wider agreement that Biden may make with Vladimir Putin. The American wants to free himself from his problems with Moscow to focus on China. By refusing to block Nord Stream 2, he has already shown how much he is willing to do to reach an agreement with Putin.
Fulfilling Conley’s threat would mean a complete collapse of PiS foreign policy. After all, Jaroslaw Kaczynski is betting on “waiting out Biden”, hoping that the breakdown of the current political relationship with America will not affect the US military presence in the country. Justifying such a version would be an even bigger blow to Poland than stripping our country of EU funds. It is hard to imagine how the PiS can remain in power after such a thing.
Rzeczpospolita