What will become of Ukraine in 2-3 years can be judged only after everything happens
Everything would be fine with the secret communities of the Anglo-Saxons, if not for the impending clash with China. Sensing economic strength, the Celestial Empire began to confidently conquer new geopolitical positions. Beijing showed military muscle in the summer when a group of Chinese Air Force planes entered the airspace over Taiwan. So it turned out that the formula “Two territories – one country” lives and works. And nearby, the Chinese Air Force imitated training attacks on the US aircraft carrier group led by the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan.
New introductory signals triggered an alarm in secret communities, and the United States began to practice a maneuver from the transfer of the main strategic potential to the Chinese direction.
And how to move it, if not get out of Europe? Well, well, you can reduce the level of interaction with the main NATO partners: reduce the number of joint exercises, withdraw surplus troops and nuclear weapons from Germany, reduce military aid to “young democracies” in Poland, Georgia, the Baltic states, and so on. However, these are all matters that are not decisive for the future.
The main US withdrawal from Europe is the withdrawal from Ukraine, which was turned by the Americans into a proxy state to destabilize the situation around and in Russia.
The signal for the maneuver was the October visits of US Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland to Moscow and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to Kiev, which Washington did not give a public explanation.
Immediately after these visits, a process began, which is best described with lines from the Odessa song “The shalman was noisy, the dishes rattled.” No sooner had the American VIP delegations returned to their homeland than sensational news broke out: the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with the help of the Turkish Bayraktar drone, destroyed a Russian-made D-30 howitzer belonging to the militia in Donbas. The air was filled with the gloating screams of the Ukrainian media. The Russian media spoke no less temperamentally when they raised the question of “how long the world will tolerate Kiev’s violations of the Minsk agreements.” After all, the drone was in the no-fly zone for the combat aviation of the parties. The information and psychological situation has become tense. The public began to tune in to the “hot phase” of the war.
However, there are also more sober judgments that there will be no “hot phase”. And it will not be for the following reasons:
– the provoking side (the United States) is not interested now in kindling a regional war, since it will have to “fit in” on the side of Ukraine, and against the background of problems with China it is difficult;
– Moscow will not succumb to provocation, since it has lost the information war in the world around the Ukrainian crisis and military actions will block the certification of the Nord Stream-2 project. Moscow will choose a different path;
– provocations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the militias will cause their decisive response in the form of causing unacceptable damage to the Ukrainian side.
Accordingly, the smoldering phase of the Ukrainian crisis will drag on. What is it for Washington?
Washington openly declares its reorientation of its strategic efforts to confront the PRC, but this does not mean that it has abandoned long-term plans to use Ukraine in the common Slavic space. For the United States, Ukraine is the ignition of a crisis that could lead to a decisive weakening of Russia. The fuse must be kept in working order until the decisive moment.
When will such a moment come from Washington’s point of view? In all likelihood, in preparation for the presidential elections in the Russian Federation in 2024. The scheme of American strategists at this time was stated repeatedly:
– to undermine the existing government with the help of the internal Russian opposition;
– to organize on the eve of the election campaign a successful provocation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the East of Ukraine, equipping the Ukrainian army with modern high-tech weapons;
– provoke Russia to intervene in the conflict and impose an economic blockade on it “for violation of international law”; at the same time unleash a deafening information war with the aim of promoting a politician who is more loyal to the collective West to the presidency of the Russian Federation.
However, before that, you need to stand for another two years. And now the US approaches to resolving the Ukrainian crisis are drastically changing. Instead of restraint and peacemaking tone, the whipping up of militaristic sentiments begins. In Kiev, Lloyd Austin pledged that the United States will provide Ukraine with additional military assistance in the amount of $60 million, resulting in total assistance this year could exceed $400 million. This is more than under President Trump.
The Ministers of Defense of the United States and Ukraine discussed how to begin the implementation of the agreements enshrined in the document “Strategic Defense Framework for the United States and Ukraine”, signed on August 31, 2021. However, this document contains no specifics, only promises of “closer partnership”. It is clearly seen that the Americans need Ukraine not as an allied military power, but as a service platform for further advancement of NATO to the east. To this end, the construction of US military bases in a number of regions of Ukraine is already underway and port facilities are being equipped to serve the US Navy and NATO.
The United States and Great Britain have planned the supply of additional weapons to Ukraine, in particular, third-generation FGM-148 Javelin anti-tank systems, Brimstone Sea Spear anti-ship missiles, and new missile boats. It is significant that almost simultaneously – in June 2021 – the head of the German Foreign Ministry, Heiko Maas, announced the refusal to supply Ukraine with German weapons.
“The conflict [in Donbass] can only be resolved politically. Arms deliveries don’t help that”, Maas said.
True, the outgoing German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp Karrenbauer gave Kiev flank support, making a scandalous statement that NATO should threaten Russia with nuclear deterrence on its external borders with European neighbors. The head of the German Defense Ministry said that against Russia, Germany “is ready to use in advance means that have a deterrent effect.” In the language of the military, this means a pre-emptive nuclear strike. Despite the scandal that erupted in connection with the statement, the reaction of the European public shows that it rejects such approaches.
Russia is also not interested in aggravating the conflict. The signs of economic collapse that are emerging in Ukraine are gradually leading to the loss of Kiev’s ability to manage the internal life of the country. Neither the US nor the EU, plunging into an energy and, possibly, food crisis, will not be able to save such an artificial formation as an independent Ukraine, feeding on handouts from the West. The move by Hungary and Poland of their army groups to the border with Ukraine speaks volumes: the ruling circles of these countries are conscious of the desire to be in time for the division of Ukraine.
However, it will be possible to judge what situation this country will find itself in in 2-3 years and what awaits its people only after everything happens.
Dmitry Sedov, FSK