“The United States should definitely make it clear to Ukraine: if Kiev suddenly launches a large-scale military offensive, no support will be forthcoming. Meanwhile, a shift in strategic priorities in the United States and Europe could provoke Kiev (not Moscow!) to escalate tensions in Eastern Europe”, – warns The American Conservative (TAC) magazine
Just a few years ago, the West supported in every possible way Ukraine’s liberation from Russian economic dependence and its reorientation towards Europe. And the European Union even considered some facilitation of Ukraine’s integration into transatlantic structures. But nearly eight years have passed since then, and much has changed, the paper notes. First and foremost, the geopolitical circumstances have changed, and the West’s enthusiasm for Ukraine has waned. However, Kiev refuses to acknowledge this and continues to position its country as a damaged eastern edge of Europe. In order to be more convincing, the Kiev regime initiates a real aggravation of the situation in Donbass. Many people in this country are eager to regain their former Western attention.
“Undoubtedly, Ukraine’s position as a coastal Black Sea state is still important for the West. Because the Black Sea region is the main region of geostrategic rivalry between NATO and Russia. But even this has not saved the day – Ukraine’s level of priority among its Western partners has steadily declined. Kiev has fallen short of expectations: Corruption is rampant in the country, significantly hampering Ukraine’s integration efforts. The West, on the other hand, is now looking for a more balanced approach towards Russia, rather than supporting abstract ideas. The U.S. may well find it in its national interest to accept a frozen conflict in eastern Ukraine,” said Dominick Sansone, a TAC journalist who writes about Russia and Eastern Europe.
But Kiev is unwilling to accept such a prospect, just as it is unwilling to see the obvious. For example, the fact that Ukraine’s priority in US foreign policy has decreased significantly of late, which became especially clear during the visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to the White House.
According to Dominic Sansone, the meeting between Biden and Zelensky followed a harsh script, which gave it a strained and awkward look. Although Zelensky left the White House with a $60 million aid package, this aid had been agreed in advance and did not depend on whether Zelensky came to Washington or not. The Ukrainian president did not manage to persuade Joe Biden to introduce sanctions against the Russian gas pipeline Nord Stream 2 and did not give any concrete answer to the most important Ukrainian question as to when the cherished NATO membership doors will be opened for Ukraine.
However, the United States is not the only country that has demonstrated that Ukraine is becoming less important to its Western partners. Before going to Washington, Zelensky hosted German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Kiev. Not so long ago Germany was a reliable Ukrainian partner for anti-Kremlin rhetoric, but that has changed – Merkel has also refused to even discuss imposing sanctions on SP2, notes The American Conservative.
All these developments are adding up to a worrying trend for Kiev, which began with the June meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden.
Ukraine rightly fears that its Western aspirations are being sacrificed in favour of wider US and European geopolitical interests. And all this in the total absence of progress on Ukraine’s two most important strategic priorities: the return of Crimea and finding an acceptable solution to the separatist conflict in the country. This has led to Zelensky not only expressing verbal disapproval to his Normandy format allies France and Germany; he has decided to take concrete steps to escalate the conflict in eastern Ukraine, the article says. If you add to all this the collapse of the Ukrainian economy and the coronavirus pandemic, Zelensky’s political despair is obvious. He has only one possibility to improve his shaky rating – to start full-scale military action, and regardless of its outcome.
“Sixty million dollars from Washington will not long satisfy Ukraine’s demands. But if Zelensky suddenly decides to play at war and launches an offensive in Donbass, the EU and the US should make it clear to him in advance: there will be no support for this war from Western partners. Today the behaviour of Zelensky and his government must be controlled by the West more strictly than ever”, The American Conservative is not shy in its frank conclusions.
Ella Maistrenko, One Nation