Parliamentary elections in Germany ended in victory for the Social Democratic Party and the worst result of the CDU / CSU bloc Angela Merkel since 1949
The parties now face a lengthy coalition-building process in government. How will the results of the elections to the Bundestag affect the relations between Berlin and Moscow and can the reshuffle in the Cabinet of Ministers of the Federal Republic of Germany affect the fate of Nord Stream 2?
Parliamentary elections were held in Germany on Sunday. According to preliminary data, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) leads with 25.7% of the vote, the CDU / CSU bloc comes second with 24.1% of the vote, and the Greens gain 14.8%. 11.5% voted for the Free Democratic Party, 10.3% for the Alternative for Germany. The party “Left” on party lists did not overcome the 5% barrier. At the same time, the “Left” with 4.9% of the votes will still be represented in parliament, since they received three direct mandates in the constituencies.
It is noteworthy that for the CDU / CSU this is the lowest result ever since 1949. The parties will now begin preliminary negotiations on the formation of a government. There are three most likely coalition options: the first is the now-in-power “Grand Coalition” (SPD – CDU / CSU), the second is a “traffic light” from the SPD, the Greens and the Liberals, the third is “Jamaica” (named after the colors that symbolize party and matching the colors of the flag of Jamaica), consisting of the CDU / CSU, the Greens and the Liberals.
German Chancellor candidate, leader of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) Olaf Scholz hastened to abandon the coalition with the Merkel bloc (CDU / CSU), saying that the next government should be formed by the Social Democrats with the Liberals and the Greens.
In addition, when answering a question about Nord Stream 2, he said that all parties should take on guarantees in connection with the launch of the gas pipeline, and Ukraine should remain a transit country for Russian gas to Europe. Scholz added that Germany “made significant efforts” to ensure that such guarantees were given and “could be relied on.”
The SPD leader also promised that Germany will first of all be engaged in the formation of a stronger and more sovereign European Union.
“I think that the first question for German policy will be the formation of a stronger and more sovereign European Union,” he said, answering questions about foreign policy. He noted that this task will affect the international strategy and foreign policy of Germany.
US President Joe Biden reacted with surprise to the result of the elections in Germany, and the American media predicted the weakening of Germany’s leadership in Europe due to too long negotiations to form a new government.
Meanwhile, German politician Steffen Kotrets (Alternative for Germany) said that if the Greens enter the German government, they will try to torpedo Nord Stream 2, but are unlikely to succeed. At the same time, the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Dmitry Kuleba said that any of the most likely coalitions in the Bundestag will be favorable for Ukraine.
The Kremlin assessed the results of the elections in Germany. Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Moscow is watching the results of the elections in Germany with great attention and counts on continuity in relations.
He recalled that Moscow and Berlin are united by the understanding that differences should be resolved only through dialogue.
“We are not free from disagreements, but we are united by the understanding that the problem can and should be solved only through dialogue. In addition, Germany is a very large our trade, economic and investment partner”, said Peskov.
“The election results are quite expected. The miracle did not happen. Despite the not very good result, the ruling party CDU / CSU still retains the levers of control and manipulation of the agenda”, says Waldemar Gerdt, MP from the Alternative for Germany.
He added that the formation of the government will be a very difficult process.
“Regardless of the configuration within the coalition, Germany will move further and further from the conservative-pragmatic principle to ideological insanity,” Gerdt is convinced.
“In the near future, Germany will face serious tests. All crises that began under Angela Merkel will intensify. And whatever the new government is, it will not be able to lead our country through these dark times”.
“Always, when politicians put ideology ahead of pragmatism, the country slipped into negative consequences. And now “green insanity” is among the priorities of the country”, the interlocutor is sure.
According to the deputy, at present, any version of the coalition remains realistic, despite the statements of some politicians – both the traditional union of the SPD with the CDU / CSU, and their cooperation with small parties (“Greens” and the FDP).
“The main question is who will sell more of their principles. They will have to sacrifice what they promised their voters. The result will be a strange jumble of people who have betrayed their ideals”, he predicts.
As for foreign policy and relations with Russia, the situation will definitely become more complicated.
“The few who defended Nord Stream 2 lost interest in these elections. And those who promoted a different agenda will not be able to change their attitude towards the gas pipeline overnight. Therefore, all foreign policy issues and positions on Nord Stream 2 will become more complicated”, suggests Gerdt.
At the same time, for Ukraine, the election results can indeed be called successful: the “Greens”, who spoke out with harsh anti-Russian rhetoric, gained the required number of votes. On this wave, Ukrainians will have the hope that the Germans will continue to sponsor them and defend the interests of the Ukrainian oligarchy to the detriment of their people”.
The situation in NATO is unlikely to be strongly influenced by the results of the parliamentary elections, “because this is a separate construct of European politics.”
“The new German government will continue the course of Merkel within the framework of the alliance. Most likely, the United States will force them to re-enter their usual rut and move on in accordance with Washington’s plans”, says Gerdt.
In turn, the German political scientist Alexander Rahr believes that it is still difficult to predict who exactly will be the heir to Angela Merkel.
“For ethical reasons, if Scholz is the winner, he should be the first to try to create a government,” the source said. “But only the Greens are among the junior partners for him, and the Free Democratic Party wants to create an alliance with Lashet.”
Rahr recalled that “first, small parties will negotiate a ruling coalition in the new government” and pointed to “the opposite of their views on the country’s financial and industrial policy, as well as on the climate policy of Germany.”
“How they will come to an agreement, as well as with whom they want to create a coalition – with Scholz or Lashet, it is difficult to say now.”
The expert noted the pragmatic attitude towards Russia on the part of the leaders of the CDU / CSU and the SPD.
“It’s another matter that the Greens, led by Berbock, and the liberals are uniting in a common approach to foreign policy, and there is a prevailing tendency to defend human rights around the world,” Rahr explained and added that in this regard, “small parties in the future the coalitions will be critical of Russia and complicate relations with Moscow”.
“The liberals see in Russia only a rival who interferes in German affairs and creates an illiberal social system in Europe. They urge to fight this. Therefore, after the elections, the situation will not become easier, the political scientist argues, but it will not get much worse either.
What depends on the general situation in Europe and in the world as a whole”.
The interlocutor was also surprised at the hopes of official Kiev for a “favorable for Ukraine” coalition in the Bundestag. “Now there is a tendency for Europe to abstract from the topic of Ukraine. The Germans and French will tackle this problem only after they have stabilized their own political systems. In Germany, lawlessness will last for about six weeks, and in France, the presidential elections will begin soon, so now President Macron has no time for Ukraine”, the expert explained.
Rahr also drew attention to publications in the American media, which talk about the weakening of Germany after the elections.
“Yes, Merkel was a heavyweight in politics and a leader in Europe. The future chancellor will be weak because, unlike Merkel, she has only about 25% of the population’s support. Moreover, he will have a difficult coalition”, the political scientist said. According to him,
“Germany overslept the moment when new centers began to appear in Europe.”
“In Eastern Europe, there is a lurch to the right, while Germany is moving towards a green-liberal policy. France will not become the leader of Europe either”, the source said “As the Americans dealt with Macron recently, they will look at Germany with condescension. This is weakening the collective West. If Germany and France wanted, they could be stronger on the world stage, but they are busy with internal problems. Europe must now consolidate, so no new impulses in global politics can be expected from it”, Rahr is sure.
At the same time, Russian political scientist Andrei Kortunov believes that Moscow will be satisfied with both main options of the coalition. “The option in which the Christian Democrats remain the main ones and Laschet becomes the new chancellor means the continuity of Merkel’s course. It is synonymous with predictability without any breakthroughs, ”the source said.
“If the coalition is led by the Social Democrats, then it will be even easier for Moscow.
But there will be no revolutionary shift in either case”, the political scientist assured. He predicted “the continuation of joint work on Nord Stream 2, Germany’s continued activity in the Minsk process and attempts to resume dialogue through the European Union.”
Risks in relations with Moscow, according to the interlocutor, are associated with the junior coalition partners of the CDU and SPD. “If in the new coalition the Greens get the portfolio of the Minister of Foreign Affairs, then the critical attitude towards our country will manifest itself in German foreign policy. This is especially true of Ms. Berbock. On the other hand, during the years of Merkel’s rule, many de facto rights and activities have moved from the Foreign Ministry to the Chancellor’s office. Therefore, if a representative of another party becomes the Foreign Minister, but the tendencies laid down by Merkel remain in the Chancellor’s office, then Berlin’s line of conduct in the Russian direction will be determined by the Chancellor and his team. This will mitigate possible problems, ”Kortunov is convinced.
Elena Leksina, Natalia Makarova, VZGLYAD