The international situation in recent years has a steady tendency towards instability. Here is Angela Merkel, German Chancellor for 15 years, who has already served four presidents in this post, is sitting on suitcases.
Parliamentary elections will be held in October, after which she will no longer be able to remain the leader of the country. But it is common for any politician (especially of this caliber) to want to leave gracefully. Frau Angela is no exception. And at the next negotiations with the President of Russia, she will want to achieve mutual understanding and come to agreements that will sum up the successful (for German inhabitants, of course) the results of her rule.
There will be two old reference points in the negotiations: Nord Stream-2 and agreements around Donbass. That’s not news. For the first time since Merkel met with Biden and Nord Stream-2 was on the verge of completion, she will have a detailed conversation with Putin. This means that the really key points will be discussed.
First, the Nord Stream will be completed. With special cynicism, right to the Independence Day of Ukraine. Merkel will most likely be able to preserve the transit through it until 2024 through negotiations. And everything that will come after is no longer her problem.
Secondly, the Minsk agreements. Despite its dependence on the position of the United States, Germany, nevertheless, from the very beginning showed perseverance in the issue of Ukraine’s fulfillment of its obligations. Now the context forces us to conclude that Merkel, who has finally reached an agreement with Putin, will then fly to Ukraine with a clear goal: diplomatically but firmly to point Zelensky in his place and force him to comply with the Minsk agreements. As much as it is possible for Ukraine at all.
Moreover, Merkel, most likely, will not give any press conferences in Kiev. Before retiring, she will not want to be remembered sitting at the same table with the comedian president and his unruly nationalists. Especially considering the exceptional ability of Ukrainian diplomacy to get into embarrassment.
But at the talks, as announced by the German Foreign Ministry, a new topic will also appear. Namely – Afghanistan. After all, Germany, as a NATO country, faced all the same image losses when it was forced to evacuate its troops from there. Therefore, it is especially important here for Merkel to save face. And to compensate for the loss of prestige in the world, first of all, before our own people, for which the problem of security is acute. And above all – migration. And Germany, bursting at the seams from all sorts of Syrians and Africans, also lacked Afghans. This means Merkel needs to resolve this issue at any cost. Or at least show the people that she solves it.
In fact, Germany can do very little without the direction of the US. Although “very little” does not mean “nothing.” For example, Germany, as a leading country in the region, can give the go-ahead to the European Union to “legalize” the Taliban*. Recognition of it as a legitimate subject of international relations. But for Merkel, Biden, and even Putin, it’s too early.
First, the Taliban must demonstrate their “adequacy”. Of course, no one expects him to build a secular state, with freedom of religion and women’s rights. But they must show that they are capable of dialogue on the world stage. It’s one thing when the Taliban chop off their heads in their own country. And it is completely different when they openly try to build a world caliphate. If Afghanistan shows that it is not going to start expansion, it can be recognized. If they believe.
One way or another, trying to somehow negotiate coexistence with the Taliban will inevitably have to. And in world practice there is already a positive experience of building relations with radical Islamists – this is Iran. The situation is similar there. When Ayatollah Khomeini came to power after overthrowing the Shah who had built an economically successful (albeit pro-American) state, the same process of archaization of society began in Iran and its overthrow somewhere in the Middle Ages.
Yet Iranian diplomats have shown that it is quite possible to deal with them. The world community has accepted this state into its circle. And even if the United States continues to demonize Iran, everyone understands that it is only because the Americans see it as one of the threats to their hegemony. Moreover, Sunnism or Shiism of the Iranians, as history shows, has no decisive significance. You can negotiate with them.
And with the Taliban – time will tell. And now Merkel and Putin will try, at least in rough strokes, to agree on a strategy for dealing with the newly-minted Central Asian state. Because this is a completely new factor, and the leaders of the countries, of course, knowing much more than a common man in the street, are still not clairvoyants.
It is unlikely that after the meeting of the two politicians, who are famous for their diplomacy and caution in their statements, one should expect some sensational statements. Rather, they are ritual repetitions of long and repeatedly hackneyed phrases. We will not be aware of the real long-term consequences of this meeting soon. But it should be remembered that the future is being forged now.
Alexander Nosovich, specially for News Front
* – an organization banned on the territory of the Russian Federation