The situation at Kabul International Airport on Monday, August 16, was nothing like the “safe and orderly evacuation” from Afghanistan promised by US President Joe Biden
The day after the fall of the capital, the internet was filled with images of chaos on the runway: refugees storming airliners, clinging to US military transport planes and crashing to their deaths as they fell from them.
Even President Biden’s dispatch of 7,000 American troops to Kabul, which was the only territory not under the control of the Taliban (banned in Russia), was unable to stabilize the situation. The news of the sudden transfer of such a large contingent caused some observers to fear that the United States would actually try to delay in the country, and that it needed the airport as a base for troop buildup and a subsequent counterstrike against the capital.
The fears were reinforced by the fact that quite an impressive combat force had been sent to Kabul. The first flights with advance parties of two battalions of marines and one paratrooper battalion had already landed there. A total of 3,000 “bayonets” are planned to be delivered there by the end of Monday. The second train this week will be a brigade of the elite 82nd Airborne Division, which is being sent directly from the U.S. territory. Britain has sent six hundred soldiers from the 16th Airborne Assault Brigade to evacuate its citizens, and it has decided to send an additional 200 troops to Afghanistan.
The full power of the regional air force from numerous U.S. bases is ready to support them. In addition, additional B-52 strategic bombers flew to Qatar the day before. The MQ-9 Reaper strike drones and heavily armed AC-130s, and deck planes from aircraft carriers on duty in the region, are always ready to fly.
But the reality is more prosaic. The Americans are not thinking now about regaining control of Kabul, but about a complete and utter withdrawal from Afghanistan. Even with the forces they have redeployed, an orderly evacuation from an airfield encircled on all sides by the enemy they have been fighting for the last 20 years would be difficult.
Kabul International Airport is completely unsuitable for defence. It is located in the city limits, surrounded by residential and industrial areas. Along the runway there is a hilly ridge about two kilometres long. It overlooks the entire area and the taking-off and landing of planes and helicopters. During the Soviet campaign in Afghanistan an entire motorized rifle regiment was guarding and defending the airport. It was supported by neighbouring units and local security forces. Nevertheless, taking off and landing from there was often risky. For example, an IL-76 military transport aircraft was shot down in the skies above Kabul.
If they wanted to, the Taliban could already cause a lot of trouble for the American contingent and slow down or completely disrupt the evacuation. To do so, they could just take the airport under sporadic mortar and rocket fire. The insurgents also have long-range anti-tank guided missiles at their disposal. More than once they have successfully attacked Afghan army helicopters attempting to land on blockaded roadblocks and strongholds.
But a compromise between the old adversaries seems to have been reached. On 16 August, the head of US Central Command, Frank Mackenzie, met personally in Oman with representatives of the political wing of the Taliban in an attempt to negotiate that the Islamists would not attack the airport and would allow foreigners and refugees to be evacuated from it. So far, even without militant opposition, this has not worked out well.
Withdrawing several hundred foreign diplomats and citizens would not be difficult. The main problem delaying the evacuation is the tens of thousands of Afghans who claim immigration to the US and other countries. This opportunity was promised to a host of interpreters, US-loyal officials and professionals, and their families. But Afghanistan’s precipitous fall has prevented them from obtaining papers and visas in time. Consequently, fearing Taliban retaliation, they now besiege the airport in the hope of flying to whatever country they can find.
The US military is well aware of what to do when the Taliban attack the airport, but has no idea how to deal with the frenzied frenzy of local allies. Several Afghans have already been killed in the crush that erupted at the airport following the warning shots. Neither gunfire nor rolls of barbed wire helped. The crowd spilled out onto the runway and taxiways, temporarily blocking them.
Evacuation flights regularly have to be postponed. Only military aircraft land and take off, and the road in front of them has to be cleared by intimidating Apache helicopter flights at an extremely low altitude. The situation can only be brought under control with the arrival of American reinforcements.
The Taliban are now consciously trying not to provoke their formal adversaries. It is in the movement’s interest to achieve their withdrawal from the country as quickly as possible. And these aspirations fully coincide with those of the US. One can expect not only a temporary peaceful coexistence between Pentagon soldiers and the Taliban. One should not be surprised if the group is also engaged in guarding the outer perimeter of the airport and thus helping to ensure the “safe and orderly evacuation” promised by President Biden. It may eventually be completed even before the August 31 deadline.
Anton Lavrov, Izvestia newspaper