The American public will not be in a forgiving mood if al-Qaeda rises again after the US withdrawal and the Taliban offensive
What does it take for Joe Biden to admit he is catastrophically wrong about Afghanistan? Last week the American leader adopted a defiant posture. In the voice of a slightly desperate Olympic coach, he told the Afghans that this is their country. If they want it, they should fight for it. In American politics, they say, it’s called tough love. No love.
Biden has more practical experience in foreign policy than any president since George W. Bush. That doesn’t mean he knows what he’s doing. Opinion polls show that his sudden withdrawal from Afghanistan has the support of the majority of the population. This does not mean that Americans will remain indifferent when the carnage and suffering begins.
The Taliban’s daily fighting successes and the growing threat to Kabul fuel a sense of deep defeat, panic and humiliation. Grim comparisons to the fall of Saigon in 1975 abound. An emergency evacuation has begun. Hundreds of thousands of people are on the move in a developing refugee crisis. All indications are that it will get worse.
Biden says the US is still providing limited military support, logistics, cash. But the very pace of the Taliban offensive and the surrender of demoralised government troops has shocked the White House. There is no point in repeating that NATO has trained and armed 300,000 security forces. Not if it is useless.
It is grossly unfair to the many brave Afghan soldiers who have been deprived of critical US air cover. Yet no army fights well if it lacks credible, respected political leaders. Firing the country’s military chief, as President Ashraf Ghani did last week, is not the answer. The problem lies in Kabul. Afghanistan’s dependent political class, sheltered by the US since 2001, has never really stepped up. Now it may be too late.
Biden has torn down the protective shield, exposing incompetence, lack of planning, lack of sustainability. He has also unwittingly exposed the weakness inherent in two decades of persistent Western efforts to save Afghanistan from its past. The past is now upon us with redoubled force. It turns out that little has changed fundamentally.
Biden’s reasoning goes like this: the U.S. has spent more than $1 trillion there. More than 2,400 Americans have died. Washington has other priorities. This cannot go on indefinitely. Reason, however, has little to do with it.
The President thought he could get credit for getting out. So far it has been a solid brick fight. Opponents will ask: who “lost” Afghanistan, Joe? It’s unreasonable, but it will be Biden’s defeat. It will belong to him. It may haunt him.
And it could prove disastrous. Sweeping across the country, Taliban forces are closing in on Kabul. American analysts warn that the capital could fall within weeks. Millions of people could be forced across the border into Pakistan, Iran and Turkey, where they are not welcome.
Those who remain face orgies of retaliation, revenge killings and harassment. Kabul last fell at the hands of the Taliban in 1996, when its president, Mohammad Najibullah, was captured and tortured to death. His corpse was hung from a traffic light at an intersection, signalling a new era of Islamist rule.
A powerful international chorus is already condemning the consequences of Biden’s too hasty retreat. The UN and aid agencies foresee a humanitarian catastrophe. European countries fear a massive refugee crisis in Syria. Women’s organisations are appalled by the brutal enslavement of Afghan women and girls.
High-ranking military officers from NATO countries bemoan a “historic” strategic mistake. The US withdrawal is a gift to China and Russia, say pundits. This reinforces claims made in Iraq in 2011 that the US is not withstanding and is abandoning its friends to its fate.
All this will fall on Biden’s shoulders, although he insists he has not left Afghanistan and is doing the right thing.
Republican Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader who long ago lost his personal moral compass, gave a foretaste last week. Biden, he said, was guilty of “wishful thinking” and had no “concrete plan”. Such hypocrisy is mind-boggling. The original decision to leave and run was made by Donald Trump and supported by Republicans. But that doesn’t stop them from using the crisis to discredit him.
Maybe Americans won’t blame Biden personally for the Afghan bombing, however horrific and heartbreaking it was. They may conclude that the US tried its best. But if his decision to leave directly threatens their own security, that’s another matter entirely.
Therein lies a key error in Biden’s policy that may force him to change tactics, even eventually reversing the US military rollback. For, contrary to assurances given at the Doha talks, the Taliban are reportedly fighting alongside al-Qaeda and possibly ISIS terrorists.
Far from denying aid and support to their fellow extremists, the Taliban offer both. The Afghan government, meanwhile, claims that some 10,000 jihadists from Pakistan and elsewhere have joined the fight. As in 2001, Afghanistan looks set to once again become a safe haven and operational centre for international Islamist terror.
This is what the US (and the UK) have always insisted on. The collapse of Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda after the 9/11 attacks was the reason the US invaded in the first place. Allowing al-Qaeda to go back is anathema. Americans will never forgive it.
Regardless, the situation is beginning to resemble Iraq after the withdrawal of US troops in 2011. Within two years, ISIS had seized vast swathes of Iraq and Syria and proclaimed an Islamic caliphate. A series of horrific terrorist atrocities followed, both there and across Europe.
To stop the attacks and destroy the jihadists, the US held back and sent combat units back to Iraq. Will history repeat itself in Afghanistan?
Biden may resist increased political and moral pressure to come to his senses. He will never admit he was wrong to leave. But the resurgent international terrorist threat could still force him back.
There may simply be no getting out of Afghanistan.
Simon Tisdall, The Guardian