Opinion polls show an unpleasant trend: more and more Europeans regard the United States and not Russia as their main rival
People are even saying that in case of a hypothetical military conflict between the US and China or Russia, European countries, despite their NATO membership, would not want to die for America. And Russia’s actions have led to this, among other things.
Human nature is invincible. Even now, amid a host of common problems and threats, the leading countries continue to engage in pointless and petty conflicts with one another. And the main initiator is the United States, which is pursuing a hostile policy towards Russia, China, Iran and a number of other, lesser countries.
To some, this policy seems to be led not by the United States, but by the collective West. The conventional wisdom in Russia is that it is a “Washington Obkom” that runs European vassals unchallenged and unquestioning, standing squarely in front of their superiors.
To some extent this view is correct. European elites do indeed submit to Washington, not because he makes them do so, but because they are used to it and do not see how they can live any other way. The proof of this thesis is the confusion of European leaders under Trump, when the American president has in fact refused to lead the collective West and has moved from collectivity to demonstrative unilateralism in decision-making. And instead of responding with their own decisions (on Russia, Iran, Ukraine), European elites went into a stupor. They only exhaled when Biden arrived – and with him the previous formula for relations.
Nevertheless, the Americans themselves believe that it will not be like before. And that in case of any serious mess they cannot rely on the help of European allies. Yes, there is formally the fifth paragraph of NATO Charter, which speaks of collective self-defence. However, none of America’s enemies (systemic actors, of course – we do not take terrorist groups into account) are going to attack America. Rather, they will defend themselves in their area of interest.
Thus, a possible military clash with Russia could be in Ukraine, with Iran in Iraq, and with China in Southeast Asia (possibly Taiwan). None of this would fall under the fifth paragraph of the NATO Charter. More accurately, it might if the European authorities were prepared to interpret the clause broadly – but most of those authorities are not prepared to make such sacrifices.
“Vladimir Putin’s seizure of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine have polarised NATO member states. On one side are Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, who see a real and serious threat in Russia, which intends to expand its sphere of influence after the Cold War. On the other side is a very cautious Western Europe, for which the threat to economic growth is more important than the well-being of its former post-Soviet neighbours”, – writes the well-known American political scientist Andrew Mihta.
Threats existential and not so existential
The reason for what is happening is generally simple.
“Europeans do not see China and present-day Russia as an existential threat – unlike what the Soviet Union represented for Europe and what Russia and China now represent for the US.”
For the U.S., China is almost an equal and, in the future, simply an equal competitor that could strip the United States of its superpower status and thus end America’s ambitions for global leadership and hegemony. Russia is a dangerous rival, which is not capable of becoming an equal and cannot challenge the US existentially, but which challenges the US global leadership and creates serious obstacles for the US foreign policy,” says Dmitry Suslov, director of the Center for Complex European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, to the VZGLYAD newspaper. – Europeans, on the other hand, do not have the same ambitions as the Americans. Moreover, Western Europeans cooperate with Russia and all Europeans with China very profitably – and would like to maintain this cooperation. And they do not want to become pawns in the American game.
The peak of alarmist publications on this topic was, of course, in late 2020 and early 2021, at the end of the Trump administration, which has done much to turn the transatlantic rift into an abyss.
“Recent polls by Pew and Gallup, two of the world’s most respected polling services, send a clear warning that support for the US among its partners and elsewhere in the world is in serious decline. And shrinking to the level of external support for China and Russia”, – wrote US political scientist Anthony Cordesman.
Simply put, for a significant portion (if not the majority) of Europeans, America was no less of a threat than Russia.
It seemed that the situation was about to change now – Biden, unlike his predecessor, was extending a palm, not a fist, to Europe.
“These are, after all, the figures from Donald Trump’s period, when there was the deepest crisis in transatlantic relations. Today, after six months of the Biden administration, the attitude of European elites towards the US has improved. However, at the societal level, a serious transatlantic rift remains – as does an underlying mistrust of the US. The wounds that were inflicted on Europeans during the administrations of George W. Bush and Donald Trump have not yet healed and will not heal any more”, – continues Dmitri Suslov.
And sociology confirms this. Thus, according to a poll by the European Center on Foreign Relations, despite the massive information artillery, the United States has failed to convince Europeans that they need to mobilize against Russia and China. Only 17% of Europeans consider Russia an enemy, and another 18% consider it an adversary. A total of 35% – exactly the same proportion as the number who consider Russia a “necessary partner”. And 7% are generally convinced that Moscow is an ally.
The figures on China are also sad. As for China, 12% consider it an enemy, 25% – an enemy, and 36% consider it a necessary partner.
However the saddest circumstance here are the figures of the United States. Only 4% of the Europeans consider it an enemy, 12% see it as an enemy. Only 22 per cent of residents of EU countries consider their ally in NATO and the collective West an ally.
On their own
Why this attitude, since Trump is gone? First of all, Trump is gone, but his course partly lives on. For many years, US relations with allies (not only in Europe) were based on the formula “loyalty in exchange for free access to the US market”, among other things. Access, even to the detriment of US and US business interests. Under Trump, however, the approach has changed – Washington has turned on a regime of stiff protectionism. And Biden, for all his liberal nature, will continue the Trump line.
“Washington feels more vulnerable now than it did during the Cold War. The Soviet Union’s economy has never exceeded 40% of America’s. China has already reached 70 per cent and the remaining gap could disappear in less than two decades. The emergence of an equally capable rival would make the US less generous and more mercantilist”, – said former Portuguese Minister for European Affairs Bruno Massaes. Which means trade conflicts with Europe will continue.
In addition, there is the possibility that a notional Trump is bound to return.
“Europeans understand that the current strengthening of Atlanticism and multilateralism in American foreign policy is temporary. Republicans do not support the Biden line in foreign policy – for example, the easing of pressure on Europeans on the issue of relations with Moscow. And with successive administrations in the US, shifts in foreign policy are inevitable. As well as behaviour – every time a republican administration comes to power, the US will again humiliate the Europeans and take decisions without looking back at them”, – says Dmitry Suslov.
Finally, “the Europeans understand that Europe’s role and importance in American foreign policy is diminishing. And here Europe is of interest to the US primarily because of its willingness to help America in non-European areas, such as containing China,” continues Dmitry Suslov. Europeans (with the exception of Great Britain, which is not quite Europe anymore) are not interested in getting involved in conflicts in these areas. France is only concerned about China because of its African ambitions. Germany has invested a lot of money in China and does not want to lose it. The Poles are always ready, but their readiness is of little use or benefit.
This is why the US is now demanding some act of loyalty from Europe – at least a symbolic action proving that the Old World is still with the New World. For example, an action on defence policy.
“A massive rearmament would signal that Europe is willing to take military action shoulder to shoulder with the US – and would call into question Europe’s access to Russian oil or the Chinese market. If European NATO allies begin to demonstrate real military capabilities, it will show Moscow and Beijing that NATO is ready to provide deterrence in Europe and at the same time free up a significant portion of U.S. military forces for tasks in the Indo-Pacific region”, – writes Andrew Mihta.
Judging by the behaviour of European countries, Washington will be waiting a long time. Europe sees no reason to engage in a conflict it does not want for a country it is no longer particularly allied with. Europe is beginning to think of itself first and foremost, which is also part of human nature that even the US can’t exterminate.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor at the Finance University, VZGLYAD