Of course, when there is a protest somewhere, and one uses social media to fuel it, analysts turn their sights towards Washington – is that where the wind is blowing from?
Surprisingly, the White House got away with very general words about people’s right to be free and the unacceptability of “all violence”. The events in Cuba seem to have come as a complete surprise to the current US administration. And it was a surprise, which came at an inopportune time.
On the other hand, the Republican opposition has come out very harshly, denouncing not only the Cuban communist regime, but also the US government. When State Department spokeswoman Julie Chang tweeted that Cubans were mostly suffering from an unstoppable wave of the coronavirus, Republican Senator Marco Rubio immediately gave her an angry rebuke, saying that her words were appalling and that he demanded the strongest action from the White House to support the protesters.
In the Florida state capital, Miami, almost more people took to the streets than in Havana. Demonstrators expressed solidarity with Cubans who had clashed with the Communist Party. The mayor of Miami, Francis Suarez, even demanded that Washington immediately intervene militarily to “liberate the Cuban people”.
And here we come to the question of the different plans for the Liberty Island of the two main American political parties. One way or another, both forces see a future for Cuba under a United States protectorate. In a strategic perspective, this is inevitable. But the approaches to establishing a protectorate are different for Republicans and Democrats.
American liberals have sought and are seeking a normalisation of relations with the Communist Party and a gradual convergence of the Democratic Party’s left wing with Cuba’s renewed leadership. So the current White House administration can hardly be suspected not only of organising mass protests on the Liberty Island, but even of stoking them. On the contrary, observing the activity of Marco Rubio (he is a Republican Senator from Florida), one can assume that the powerful politicians and sponsors of the Republican Party have not been involved.
One way or another, communist Cuba is doomed. Its leadership has fewer and fewer tools to keep the situation under control and an intervention on its side by a strong power (such as China) would provoke an immediate military response from the United States. What remains unclear is the short-term outlook – how the current protests will end. And the medium term – who will manage the transit of power in Havana from the United States.
And for the time being, a great deal depends on the Cuban authorities themselves. Washington is too busy with the financial situation in Puerto Rico and instability in Haiti to seriously intervene in Cuban internal affairs as well. However, the situation could change rather quickly.
Dmitry Drobnitsky, VZGLYAD