President Volodymyr Zelensky in a fresh interview with the German press spoke about the threat posed by the creation of a full-fledged Union State of Russia and Belarus
According to Zelensky, in this case, security problems are added at the northern borders of Ukraine, where there is an “army under the command of the Belarusian regime”. And further integration of Belarus and Russia will lead to the fact that the latter will gain control over this army. As if this is the only thing Moscow lacks in order to finally capture the long-suffering Ukraine, and it would have been like that for a long time.
The infantile statements of the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, nevertheless, have a real underlying reason. The coordinated actions of Minsk and Moscow – it does not matter whether in the format of the Union State or without it – can really create considerable problems for Kiev. But not in the field of security, but primarily in economic matters.
After meeting with Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Lukashenko has already hinted that he had discussed with the Russian President the possibility of a joint sanctions response. It is quite obvious that the most effective retaliatory actions hit not the distant United States or the largest economies of the European Union, but the satellite countries, which act as the very “matches” from which a real conflagration in international relations is growing. In this case, “matches”, of course, burn out in it first.
Zelensky’s statement came after the Ryanair forced landing scandal and the ensuing sanctions from the West and its satellites. Ahead of the whole planet, as usual, was Ukraine, which was one of the first to cancel regular flights with Minsk, despite the fact that there were Ukrainian citizens left there for treatment.
Alexander Lukashenko had to react to the activity of the Ukrainian authorities. Recently Minsk introduced an individual licensing regime for the import of some Ukrainian goods. For six months, Belarus may restrict the import of sweets, chocolate, toilet paper, bricks and other Ukrainian export products. But these sanctions seem like a trifle against the backdrop of possible joint actions by Russia and Belarus in the field of energy and fuel supplies.
Recently Kiev made a decision to stop purchases of electricity from Russia and Belarus, although as recently as this winter, finding itself on the verge of a blackout, the Ukrainian side requested help from Minsk from reserve capacities. The decision – exclusively populist, was made from a great desire to demonstrate to the West the commitment of the Ukrainian leadership to the main line: to be as anti-Russian (and now also anti-Belarusian) as possible.
At the same time, the import ban is temporary and will last until October this year. Which is understandable: the likelihood of serious problems in the Ukrainian energy system is higher in winter, when, in the absence of normal centralized heating and hot water supply, Ukrainians use electricity much more. The introduction of a reciprocal ban on the supply of electricity by Russia and Belarus on a reciprocal basis will significantly increase the risks for the passage of the heating season in Ukraine. In case of problems, there will be no one to turn to the Ukrainian authorities – the Ukrainian and European energy systems are not synchronized.
Another problematic point is fuel. Recently it became known that in June Belarus will ship to Ukraine a third of the standard volume of monthly deliveries. At the same time, the share of Belarusian gasoline on the Ukrainian market is about 50%. It is obvious that part of the scarce resource is compensated by competitors – the Mezheikiai oil refinery in Lithuania and the Ukrainian plant in Kremenchug. Part of the supplies will come by sea. However, the cost of such gasoline, taking into account the logistics, as well as the urgency of supplies, will be higher. Gas station prices will inevitably jump, burying the Ukrainian government’s populist initiative to regulate fuel prices.
In early May, the Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers decided to limit the trade markup of gas stations during the quarantine period, which caused a negative reaction from the business. It was assumed that the draconian measures would be offset by the government’s active fight against counterfeit oil products and “bodyag” produced at numerous mini-refineries throughout the country. But the expected struggle did not happen, and the share of legal manufacturers and traders in the market due to the shadow market did not grow. Some gas station chains have already announced that they are stopping selling the standard grade of AI-95 gasoline and are switching exclusively to trading in premium fuel, which is not subject to state regulation. Other manufacturers do not really hide at all that they will receive 95th gasoline from 92nd with the help of special additives. In other words, gasoline prices in Ukraine will rise and quality will fall.
In addition, Russia and Belarus, for two, control about 40% of diesel fuel supplies. The epic with the change of the exclusive supplier of petroleum products from Russia after the departure of the Swiss trader Proton Energy against the background of the actions of the Ukrainian security forces ended with the fact that the Azerbaijani company SOCAR entered the market as an intermediary and concluded the relevant contracts with Rosneft. However, the export of fuel to Ukraine since 2019 also goes through the filter of the permission of the Ministry of Economic Development. This means that it can also be suspended if necessary.
The simultaneous sanctions of Russia and Belarus, if such a political decision were made, could immobilize Ukraine, creating colossal problems in the energy sector and in the fuel market. Of course, this is fraught with losses for Minsk and Moscow themselves. For example, Belarus is in a big plus in trade with Ukraine. However, if anyone will be indicatively punished with counter-sanctions, it will be Ukraine. So the complaints of Zelensky (who is seriously considering a second presidential term) to the European media about the rapprochement between Minsk and Moscow is quite understandable.
But, of course, not forgive.
Gleb Prostakov, LOOK