Washington’s targeted sanctions against Belarus are painful, but not critical for Minsk, says Kirill Koktysh, an associate professor at the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO (U) of the Russian Foreign Ministry, an expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs.
Earlier, the White House said that the United States, in cooperation with the EU and other partners, is developing targeted sanctions against key representatives of the Belarusian authorities and intends to return previously lifted sanctions against 9 Belarusian state-owned enterprises.
“This is not critical, but it is painful. Belarus has an export-oriented economy, and, accordingly, any restrictions on export opportunities are always sensitive”, – Koktysh told RIA Novosti.
At the same time, the expert noted the importance of the upcoming meeting of the presidents of Russia and the United States on June 16. In particular, in his opinion, a possible further tightening of Western sanctions will be “in limbo” up to this point.
“The meeting between Putin and Biden will determine the long-term nature of these measures”, – he said.
In response to Western sanctions, Belarus may move closer to Russia, Koktysh believes.
“What to answer – there are more than enough instruments within the framework of the Russian-Belarusian union”, – he said.
The Ryanair plane flying from Athens to Vilnius on May 23 urgently landed at the Minsk airport due to a message about mining, which was not subsequently confirmed. Roman Protasevich, the founder of the Nexta Telegram channel, recognized as extremist in Belarus, flew this side. He was detained while checking documents on previously initiated criminal cases against him under several articles, including the article “organizing mass riots.” He could face up to 15 years in prison.
Following the discussion of Belarus, EU leaders made a political decision to ban flights of Belarusian aircraft in European airspace, and also recommended European airlines to avoid flying over Belarus. The EU called for new sanctions on Belarus to be adopted as soon as possible in connection with the aircraft incident. Now the decision of the EU leaders needs technical approval at the ministerial level.
Belarus responded by saying that the message about the mining of the plane had been sent to the e-mail of the Minsk airport. The commander of the crew himself decided to land in Minsk, there can be no question of any coercion or turn of the aircraft, said the commander of the Belarusian Air Force and Air Defense Forces Igor Golub. On May 25, the aviation department of the Ministry of Transport of Belarus published a transcript of the conversation with the Belarusian dispatcher of the Ryanair pilot. The decryption does not contain any threats from the dispatcher to the crew.
This week, the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, said that the fourth package of personal sanctions on Belarus is almost ready, it can be approved before the meeting of the EU Foreign Ministry Council on June 21.
The United States has gradually introduced sanctions against the oil and gas sector in Belarus since 2007, but in 2015 issued a license to temporarily remove nine enterprises from sanctions. Subsequently, the decision was regularly extended against the background of improving relations between Belarus and the West, including in view of the role of Minsk in resolving the conflict in Donbass. However, after the presidential elections in August 2020, relations between Minsk and the West deteriorated sharply. Washington has warned that the so-called license will expire on April 26 and will not be extended further due to the worsening situation in Belarus. The US Treasury announced that the license, which allows the time it takes to wind up with sanctioned businesses, will remain in effect until June 3.