Europe is on the brink of a migration crisis again. And this is before summer, which traditionally sees the peak of the wave of illegal migration from Asia and Africa
The focus of attention is now Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in North Africa, where thousands of illegal refugees have rushed from Morocco. The footage of an infant being rescued from the sea by a Spanish National Guard soldier has made the rounds of the world media.
The migration crisis in Ceuta and Melilla (another Spanish port in Africa) is largely the result of artificial tension between Spain and Morocco. According to many observers, Rabat has decided to take revenge on Madrid for the help recently given to the Polisario front (which has been fighting for years for the independence of Western Sahara from Morocco). The revenge was the virtual inaction of that country’s border guards, who turned a blind eye to the crowds of migrants making their way into Ceuta. According to The Economist magazine, this is how King Mohammed VI of Morocco “made migration a weapon”.
But the reality is that the sharp influx of refugees from Africa has not just started in Spanish enclaves. Once again, a succession of small boats from Tunisia illegally transporting Africans (mostly Libyans) to the Italian island of Lampedusa has begun. Last week 1200 people were transferred there during 12 hours of good weather alone. And even in spite of the weather, there were accidents: 73 refugees from Bangladesh almost drowned trying to reach the cherished island. No one can say how many didn’t make it. According to the Italian Interior Ministry, 4,290 migrants reached the shores of the country during the first three weeks of May. While for the whole of May last year their number was 1,654.
The flow of illegal refugees between the EU and Britain is also increasing. More than three thousand people have crossed the Channel since January. And in the same period last year, the figure was 1,400 refugees – more than double. Just the other day, the Belgian coast guard rescued a sinking vessel in which 49 migrants, mostly Vietnamese, were trying to cross the Channel. And this we know only about the rescues.
Based on the above facts and statistics, we can safely assume that the migration crisis will return to the European agenda in the foreseeable future. However, the numbers so far are not as disastrous as they were in 2015, when Europe was literally overwhelmed by the flow of refugees. And the increase compared to last year is easily explained by the fact that in 2020, many people from Asia and Africa gave up their intentions to travel to pandemic-ridden Europe. Consequently, the flow of illegal immigrants dropped sharply at that time, which temporarily dampened the heat around the issue.
Moreover, the shift of public attention from the migration problem to the fight against Covid has resulted in a noticeable decrease in ratings of some parties that advocate tough measures to limit the influx of immigrants (in the Western media these political organizations are usually indiscriminately called the far-right, even despite a fairly liberal economic programme of many of them). It is only logical that now, with the rapid return of migration issues to the agenda, many publications have sounded the alarm about the imminent rise in popularity of these political forces. This is especially true of those countries that are once again at the forefront of a new crisis – Italy and Spain.
Virtually all analysts agree that the crisis around Ceuta, which has been on the front pages of the Spanish press for several days now, will greatly strengthen the anti-Islamic Vox party. Even before the current crisis, it was actively fanning the fears of the enclave’s residents over the influx of beggarly Africans. And it ended up coming out on top in the 2019 parliamentary elections there, winning more than 35 per cent of the vote – and this in a city where 40 per cent of the population is Muslim. It would be strange if the Vox party was not still taking advantage of the crisis to build up its popularity in Ceuta. For example, the party’s local cell is capitalising on protests that African migrants entering the Spanish enclave are being vaccinated against the coronavirus, while Spanish citizens living there have been waiting months for their turn.
With its activism, Vox is also forcing the mainstream Popular Party to shift to an increasingly hard line on migration. After receiving a humiliating 17 per cent of the vote in the 2019 parliamentary elections, it is experiencing a political renaissance and is in first place in almost all polls with a result in the region of 30 per cent. This was evidenced by the People’s Party’s recent confident victory in Madrid’s assembly elections. Even there, however, the People’s Party will need the support of local Vox deputies to win an absolute majority. And given the crisis around Ceuta, this coalition is in doubt.
This is confirmed by events in the regional parliament in Andalusia, where, after the 2018 elections, the Popular Party won first place for the first time in history and was able to form a minority government. Up until last week, it was held solely on the informal support of Vox deputies. On Thursday, however, they announced that they had stopped cooperating with their senior partner due to the fact that the regional authorities had agreed to accept 13 underage refugees who had infiltrated Ceuta. This could lead to the fall of the regional government and early elections. This is why the Popular Party has been forced to be increasingly tough on the migration issue, causing the European liberal media to panic.
Even more worrying for the mainstream is the electoral situation in Italy. Since the 2015 crisis, the Liga party, led by Matteo Salvini, has been the unchallenged frontrunner in the polls. Having proved himself a tough fighter against illegal migration as interior minister, he has built up his party’s lead to record numbers. At the height of its popularity in the summer of 2019, the League’s figures were already approaching 40 per cent, giving it hopes of even forming its own government. Based on these calculations, Salvini instigated a government crisis in order to hold early elections, but was outplayed by his opponents. They preferred the most improbable coalition combinations in order to prevent the League from becoming the main force in parliament.
Since last year, the ratings of this political force, whose supporters cannot forgive the support it has expressed for Mario Draghi’s technocratic government, have been falling. It would seem that the Liberals can breathe a sigh of relief. But the fact is that the ratings of the League, still in first place in the polls, are moving on a counter course to the rapidly rising numbers of the even more right-wing and even more anti-migrant Italian Brothers party.
Those voters who are now breaking away from Salvini are amicably siding with this political force. According to some polls it is already in second place behind the League, trailing it by a couple of per cent. Three years ago their approval ratings hovered around three or four per cent, but now they are comfortably closer to 20 per cent. If elections were held now, the two forces, backed by Silvio Berlusconi’s Go Italy party, could well form a majority government.
And if the rather moderate Eurosceptics of the League were creating headaches for Europe’s liberal mainstream, the far more right-wing Brothers could be a disaster. Those make no secret of their ideological continuity with the far-right Italian Social Movement, which was founded in 1946 by former supporters of Benito Mussolini. This legacy is clearly indicated by the party’s logo, which includes the former ISD symbol.
The Brothers’ growing popularity will be aided by the charisma of party head Georgia Meloni (“Sisters of Italy,” as the press has nicknamed her) – last year she surpassed the League leader in approval ratings to become the second most popular politician in the country after the current prime minister. There is no doubt that if the migration crisis worsens, the League and the Brothers could gain additional votes to their already serious ratings.
On the one hand, the Liberals are still too early to worry: the next parliamentary elections in Italy are not due until the spring of 2023. However, worries are growing as rumours intensify that Draghi intends to run for president after Sergio Mattarella’s retirement. This could lead to early parliamentary elections as early as early next year. And if such a scenario materialises, the European liberals’ nightmare may become a reality.
Thus, we can seriously expect this summer to be a difficult test for the European Union’s migration policy. Trends in the first few months of the year show that the threat of Covid is no longer a deterrent to refugees seeking entry to Europe. This means that the nightmare of 2015 could repeat itself – and the popularity of far-right, anti-migrant, anti-Islamic and Eurosceptic parties could skyrocket again.
Brussels’ readiness for these challenges looks highly questionable.
Vladimir Kornilov, RIA