Over the past few days, a possible meeting of the presidents of Russia and Ukraine has been actively discussed
And this is a month after Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed to hold talks on Donbass near the contact line of the parties. Then Vladimir Putin proposed a bilateral meeting in Moscow, but Kiev categorically rejects this option, even after the Kremlin confirmed that the negotiations were being prepared.
In this context, it is not clear what exactly the leaders of the two states can discuss. Possible negotiations a priori look hopeless due to a large number of factors, which are already known now.
Crimea
Kiev insists that the two presidents talk about the Crimean peninsula. In turn, the Kremlin does not deny that Putin and Zelensky can talk on this topic, but not in the context of the status of Crimea.
“They say: we will discuss Crimea. But if we discuss Crimea in terms of developing cross-border cooperation … You know, Russia has cross-border cooperation between regions with foreign countries. If in this regard, then I am sure that Putin will be ready. But if we are discussing something else, and not that Crimea is a region of the Russian Federation, then no one will ever discuss this with anyone”, – said the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov.
It is easy to assume that Zelensky is interested in discussing Crimea exclusively in the context of the status of the peninsula. In Ukraine, they continue to assert that this territory was annexed and do not recognize the objective reality, where Crimea is a region of the Russian Federation. If someone states the fact that the peninsula is no longer part of Ukraine, then criminal cases are immediately initiated inside the country, and famous people visiting Crimea are immediately denied entry.
In such conditions, it is completely incomprehensible why Putin should discuss Crimea with Zelensky. It is obvious that such a conversation will have absolutely no results, which was warned in the Kremlin already at the stage of preparation of the negotiations, and Kiev, in turn, is not ready to make concessions, including on the issue of water supply to the peninsula.
Donbass
As for the armed conflict in Donbass, even here there are no prerequisites for these negotiations to have any significant result. Let me remind you that Zelensky already talked with Putin in December 2019, and based on the results of the Normandy Four summit, a communique was formulated, which remained just another document that did not change the state of affairs on the contact line.
What has changed now? Judging by the latest statements by the Ukrainian political elite, nothing.
Zelensky’s last press conference showed that the President of Ukraine, being a “politician with no experience,” has perfectly integrated into the political system that was formed during the reign of Petro Poroshenko. Not a single thesis voiced gives hope that the current leadership of Ukraine is ready for any compromises to resolve the conflict. Moreover, the recent publication of the so-called “clusters” proposed by the Ukrainian side for the implementation of the “Minsk-2” points showed that Kiev continues to stand its ground – the transfer of the border before the elections in the territories of Donbass not controlled by Kiev. That is, Ukraine continues to refuse to fulfill the points of the Minsk agreements in the order they are indicated in the document.
In this case, what should the leaders of Russia and Ukraine discuss? The Kremlin’s position is known – strict implementation of “Minsk-2” in the order in which each item is indicated in the existing document. At the same time, Moscow insists on a dialogue between Kiev and Donetsk / Lugansk, which does not accept the Ukrainian leadership. Then what is there to talk about? The only exception can be another exchange of detainees and the withdrawal of equipment from places where, after the loss of excitement, Ukrainian units or nationalist battalions, which are allegedly not under the control of the central government in Kiev, will immediately return.
Gas issue
As the practice of the Normandy Four summit has shown, the parties can find a common language in the context of discussing gas issues. Then, in December 2019, it was possible to agree on the terms of gas transit through the Ukrainian territory. This was extremely important for Europe, which contributed to the fruitful negotiations. In the current conditions, when the United States refuses to impose sanctions on Nord Stream 2, which Kiev considered a betrayal by the senior “partner”, it is likely that the issue of gas transit to Europe through the territory of Ukraine may lose its relevance, because the new gas pipeline could be completed soon if Washington does not prevent it. In this case, Kiev will lose most of the income that fills the state treasury. Based on this, Zelensky will be interested in discussing the future. The Russian side may also be interested in this issue, because during the same meeting the Normandy of the fourth, agreements were reached that are not abandoned in the Kremlin. Common ground can be found on this issue.
Perhaps, as it was in December 2019, it will be announced that both sides insist on a ceasefire in Donbass, and similar rhetoric will sound, but no real results will be achieved, let alone Crimea, which the Kremlin a priori does not plan to discuss. On the other hand, the gas issue may be partially settled, but something tells me that Ukraine’s earnings on the transit of Russian gas to Europe will be significantly reduced if, after all, Nord Stream 2 is completed without the United States in a wheelchair.
Unfortunately, in the current political context, there are no prerequisites for these negotiations to have any real significance for changing the situation in Donbass, let alone normalizing relations between the two states.
Denis Grigoryuk, Analytical Service of Donbass