On May 19, Reykjavik hosted the first meeting since the arrival of the new administration in the United States between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken
At first glance, it went well. First, the ministers exchanged statements to the camera from the series “we are for all good versus all bad”. Then they held closed negotiations about what each of them considers good and bad. The negotiations did not go on for the conditional 15 minutes (enough to exchange insults and recognize the dialogue as meaningless), but for almost two hours, during which Lavrov and Blinken calmly discussed our sorrowful affairs, as well as issues of common interest.
Among them are Ukraine, Iran, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, Syria, the rise of China, European security, etc. The American media, of course, put Russian interference in the affairs of the United States and the Navalny case on this list, but these topics were unlikely to occupy the minds of the high sides – Blinken was well aware that there was no interference, and Lavrov would not speak about Navalny.
As a result of the negotiations, the ministers did not arrange evenings of revelations, or demonstrative tearing of shirts on themselves, or moaning from the series “what am I doing here at all?” negotiations at the level of deputy ministers or heads of departments. Negotiations that may lead to a new meeting of ministers or to a summit of the heads of Russia and the United States.
The leaders of the great powers are better off talking at the table than swearing from the TV screens through the lips of their press secretaries. Meet at least in order to make the Russian-American conflict manageable, to set some red lines. For example, nowhere, in any agreements between Russia and the States, it is not specified that Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova will not be in NATO – however, the Alliance understands this red line and does not cross it. I wish the red lines would continue to be respected.
However, unfortunately, this “at least” is the limit of the expectations of the realists from these negotiations. It doesn’t smell like a maximum in the current circumstances.
Of course, Russia and the United States have a huge list of important topics and room for compromise on them. Ukraine (which can be divided), Iran (which neither Moscow nor Washington is interested in sharply strengthening in the Middle East), China (whose path to global domination can go through both American and Russian heads), the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, the fight against Islamic terrorism (which does not recognize the right to life of either Russia or the United States), Turkey (whose leader Recep Erdogan is now one of the main troublemakers of stability in the Middle East) and so on.
Everywhere it is not just possible to reach an agreement – both the Russian Federation and the United States are interested in these agreements. However, unfortunately, there are two stoppers standing in the way of realizing national interests. Powerful and, according to some, irresistible.
American elites are not ready to view Moscow as an equal partner. No, they sit down at the table with their Russian colleagues, shake their hands, smile with all their teeth on camera – but at the same time, they consider Russia a secondary country that does not have the status of a Great Power and rights that correspond to this status. The rights to a sphere of influence, to sovereignty, to participate in the building of the world order, etc. Hence, any negotiations with Moscow were and will be accompanied by interference in Russian internal affairs and statements from the series “your neighbors are free countries, and you have no right to tell them how to live and which international organizations not to join.” Russia, on the other hand, is not a banana republic or a post-Soviet limitrophe; it does not accept such conversations and agendas. At the same time, Moscow does not, and in the foreseeable future, will not have confidence in its American partners.
The problem here is not even that it is impossible to conduct any serious negotiations without trust. It is that without trust it is impossible to transform these negotiations into an agreement, including one signed on paper. In the States, Congress has every right to either rewrite the agreement already signed by the president with the leader of another country, or (if this agreement does not require the approval of the Capitol), pass such laws that make the implementation of this agreement impossible.
Congressmen regularly used these opportunities – for example, in the second half of the 90s they thwarted a deal between the United States and the DPRK on the latter’s abandonment of the prospects for obtaining nuclear weapons. They were ripped off simply because they didn’t like North Korea. And Moscow now has no illusions about the degree of love and respect of congressmen for Russia – as well as about the willingness of the incumbent President Biden to defend potentially reached agreements with the Kremlin from the attacks of exalted congressmen, politicians (who decided to promote on the Russian topic), as well as journalists.
Nor does Russia have any guarantees that in the event of reaching any serious compromise decisions with the United States (requiring concessions from the Kremlin on sensitive issues), this compromise will not be destroyed upon Biden’s return to Washington. After which the American president will say that he cannot argue with the Congress and that he simply forgot about the informal guarantees given to Russia.
Such prospects do not suit Russia, and the Americans cannot offer anything else now. So there is no need to expect anything serious from the talks between Putin and Biden. It will be great if they take place at all.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Financial University under the Government of the
Russian Federation, VZGLYAD