The U.S. is throwing “green sticks” in Gazprom’s wheels, but the Russian machine keeps moving forward
As it was to be expected, failing to secure Germany’s surrender on the issue of rejection of “the second Russian pipe,” the US tried to use, as they thought, an irresistible environmental trump card by throwing European environmentalists into a “last and decisive battle. In America such a ploy has worked reasonably well. But in Germany it suddenly misfired.
In general, implementation of the last stage of the NSP2 project is frankly reminiscent, if I may say so, of a sprint with obstacles. The pipelayers are pulling two lines at an almost record pace.
“Fortuna is pulling 800 metres a day, compared to its previous average pace of 500 metres. She has just 7 kilometres to go in Danish waters and a further 21 kilometres to go in the German exclusive economic zone.
With the Akademik Chersky, the situation is more complicated. There is still 79 kilometres of pipes to be laid on the second line, over 40 of which will be laid in Danish waters. Moreover, the pace of works on Akademik is lower, only 500 meters a day, but it is also a lot.
The rival, on the other hand, is trying to engage “any man who can hold a gun in his hand”. This expression only appears figurative at first glance, whereas in reality it has a clear practical meaning.
At the moment, the operator of the pipes is operating within the framework of the permits obtained earlier, which expire in the first quarter of 2022. After that, if the work cannot be completed, it will have to be reissued. And from scratch, including hearings in the Bundestag and public opinion polls. Washington is seriously expecting to bury the “procedural protocol” decision, if not completely annulling it, then dragging out the formalities for many years.
The sabotage has some chances of success because, according to forecasts, the new Chancellor of Germany, following the Bundestag elections scheduled for September 26, 2021, will be the candidate of the Green Party, Annalena Berbock, who is categorically against the “Russian gas project”.
But as long as the current permits are valid, pipe-laying cannot be cancelled. They can only be halted in individual sections under any bureaucratic pretext. A serious success of the “enemy” can be considered as a last-minute change of the decision of the Danish government, which demanded to change the laying map, leading to its crossing the route of the already laid Nord Stream 1, which forced to stop the work for more than two weeks to form an earth protective pillow on the bottom at the crossing point of the pipelines. However, the Russians coped and the race was on.
The next major obstacle was a request in January by the German nature conservation association and German environment aid to review the environmental grounds for a pipe-laying permit in an area 16.5 kilometres long in the German exclusive economic zone of particular importance to seabird nesting populations.
What the remote stretch of sea more than 20 meters deep has to do with nesting is still a mystery, but they succeeded in getting the German permit to be temporarily suspended.
But the happy tune was short-lived. On 17 May 2021 the German Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Office ruled that work on the section could continue under the licence issued to the Nord Stream 2 operator in 2018.
Judging by the pace of laying, the Fortuna will have reached that point in German waters by then, and then, at the end of its branch, it will start laying the other, on which the Akademik Chersky is currently working.
In short, unless the environmentalists and Washington can come up with something new, it will take about 77 days to complete the construction work on SP2, which is calculated to give a final date of late July or early August. That is, knowingly, before the September elections to the German parliament, after which the rules of the “game” could change dramatically.
But the race is not over yet, so we will not draw any final conclusions yet.
RUSSTRAT