As the Putin-Biden summit approaches, Washington is trying to strengthen its negotiating position by abandoning clearly unplayed bets
Even on the eve of the new US administration’s first contact with Russia – talks between Sergei Lavrov and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken in Reykjavik yesterday – there was a leak about the American rejection of new sanctions against German participants in Nord Stream 2.
It was an accidental coincidence: the State Department was supposed to report to Congress on the progress of its December 2012 decision to crack down on everyone involved in the pipeline’s construction and use, including the German company Nord Stream 2 AG, the operator of Nord Stream 2. And suddenly it turns out that there will be no sanctions against it. Even unofficial leaks about it caused a storm of indignation among Biden’s opponents in the US: how come, they promised to fight the Russians and their accomplices always and everywhere, and instead…
“So a bunch of Russians can shut down our pipelines and we can’t stop their pipelines from being built,” writes National Review, referring to the recent hacking attack on the US Colonial Pipeline, in which a “Russian trail” was immediately made up. And Senator Ted Cruz generally stated that “objectively speaking, the Biden administration is becoming the most pro-Russian in the modern era.”
“Amazing. Contrary to US law, Biden is actively helping Putin build a pipeline.”
Of course, the “Russians” are only needed here as a tool for domestic American political struggle – Republican Cruz is just getting back at the Democratic administration for four years of harassing Trump as a “Kremlin appointee”. But domestic political considerations are not too important to Democrats right now – the next major election is a year and a half away, and we can avoid being distracted by accusations of working for the Kremlin. The more so since everyone, including Republicans, realizes that Biden does not want to impose new sanctions not to placate Putin, but because he does not want to complicate relations with Berlin.
What would new sanctions do in terms of US relations with Russia? Nothing. The Americans have long been pushing every possible lever to derail Nord Stream 2. But all they have managed to do is delay its construction – but not to force the Germans to abandon their plans to use it. Had Biden imposed new sanctions on the eve of his meeting with Putin, the Russian president would not have been at all surprised. But Germany would be just another proof of the American unwillingness to consider its interests and stance. And this is exactly what Vladimir Putin is always talking about.
New sanctions would not change Berlin’s position, they would only strengthen those who insist that it must respond strongly to US diktat and not comply with Washington’s demands. And given that there is in fact an election campaign already underway in Germany, the US sanctions would essentially play against the US favourites – the same Greens, who are already reproached for neglecting national (or should I say European, as is more appropriate in Germany) interests.
“The Greens could not support American sanctions against German companies – for all their negative attitude to Nord Stream 2, that would look quite anti-national and anti-European. So with new sanctions Washington would actually push its ‘green’ supporters to condemn American interference – and why should the US do that? Especially in an electoral situation in a country where already two thirds of the population are in favour of normal relations with Russia and where those who see the US as a threat have long outnumbered those who fear ‘treacherous Russia’.
That is why Biden does not want to strain relations with Germany at such a sensitive time – on the contrary, during his trip to Europe in June he wants to show everyone (Americans, Europeans and Russia) that Atlantic solidarity has been restored, that America and Europe are back together. This includes confronting Moscow – both on global issues and on critical topics such as Ukraine.
Not imposing new sanctions against Nord Stream 2 at a time when America cannot stop it is a sensible move in its interests. The United States has already expended a lot of effort fighting against NSP2 – although it was initially clear that there was virtually no chance of bending the Germans and the other Europeans (Italians, French, Austrians) involved in it.
But American foreign policy in the era of superpower crisis is generally illogical, and “fighting the flow” is only one manifestation of this. Biden is trying to right the wrongs, to straighten out relations with the EU – certainly not to acknowledge Europe’s right to have its own way. No, the States simply need to regroup their forces, to reassure the Europeans, to show them respect and understanding (here, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas called the Americans’ rejection of new sanctions “a step towards us”, “an expression that Germany is an important partner for the United States, on which they count in the future”) – to try to sign them up to new forms of deterrence policy not only against Russia, but also against China. It is necessary to knock down European discontent with America, to reduce anti-American sentiment – and to lead the way in an “alliance of democracies” to confront the “autocratic regimes” of Moscow and Beijing.
The plan is, to put it bluntly, so-so – but who is to say that the globalist part of the Atlanticist elite has good and winning options? No, the West is in crisis – but the Atlanticists still have huge opportunities to influence the German elite. Therefore the games with Nord Stream 2 will continue after a new coalition is formed in Germany in autumn. They will try to hinder the pipeline which has already been built by that time with the help of German politicians, “green” and not so much. However, this will be a new chapter in German history, in which the Germans will have to defend not NP-2 and even not their relations with Russia in general, but their own – and joint European – sovereignty.
Peter Akopov, RIA