Scotland’s Independents have won a historic victory – some of the headlines that hit Sunday newspapers in this northern region of Great Britain
The press, published in London, preferred a different tone, reporting in the first place that the Scottish National Party (SNP), which advocates secession from the United Kingdom, was unable to obtain a majority in the regional parliament.
How different is the assessment of the election results! At the same time, neither one, nor the other lied.
The vote itself took place on Thursday, but under the pretext of the pandemic, the counting of ballots began only on Friday, and preliminary results were announced only on Sunday night. At the same time, no exit polls were even envisaged (this is to the question of the groaning of Russian liberals about the fact that the process of summing up the election results is supposedly long and opaque in our country, in contrast to the situation “in the West”).
Initially, few doubted that SNP would take a confident first place. The question was whether this force would be able to obtain an absolute one-party majority. Once (in 2011) it already managed to do this, as a result of which, three years later, the first referendum on independence was held, in which supporters of maintaining a united Britain received 55 percent of the vote. Even then, the separatists announced that they would reserve the right to hold a second referendum in the event of “a significant change in political circumstances”. And such a change, according to the leaders of the SNP, took place last year, when Britain finally left the European Union (the majority of the inhabitants of Scotland voted against Brexit). Therefore, the separatists went to these elections with a promise after their victory to organize a new general poll until at least 2023.
Ultimately, the SNP received 64 seats in the holiruda (the unofficial name of the local parliament), falling short of only one deputy seat to the absolute majority. However, the regional press immediately began to popularly “expose the black magic” of their London colleagues, specifically explaining that the attempt to hide the significant victory of the separatists is manipulation. And here they are absolutely right.
The fact is that eight deputies from the Scottish Green Party also entered the regional parliament (for them this is a record), which also officially advocates a referendum and withdrawal from Britain. Thus, the separatists received a confident majority: 72 out of 129 seats. If we add up the votes that voters cast for supporters and opponents of an independent Scotland, then the former received more than 50 percent, and the latter – 48. Extrapolating this result to a possible vote to leave the UK, we can assume that in the event of a repeated referendum, the separatists will win this time. And this coincides with the latest opinion polls.
However, whether the leaders of the SNP will manage to organize such a referendum is a big question.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly stated that the 2014 poll was a “generational choice” and has solemnly promised to lay his bones in the way of new recognition. The very next day after the closure of polling stations in Scotland, he gave an extensive interview to The Daily Telegraph, in which he called the idea of holding a referendum “irresponsible and reckless”.
Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the SNP and the first minister of Scotland, responded tough and unambiguous: the referendum will take place “in any weather”. Commenting on the victory of her party, she warned Johnson that if the organization of a popular poll was blocked, he would not oppose her party, but “against the will of the Scottish people”.
SNP political expert Olaf Stando, who is in charge of the digital campaign at the SNP, reminded the Conservatives that former British Prime Minister David Cameron organized a Brexit referendum with 37 percent of the vote, and current Prime Minister Boris Johnson felt he had a mandate to leave the EU with a result of slightly more 43 percent. Accordingly, according to the expert, the Scottish separatists now have much more rights to organize their poll.
It is no coincidence that Britain has long been discussing the possibility of a second referendum on independence according to the scenario of Catalonia, where in 2017 they decided to conduct a poll despite an outright ban from Madrid. Sturgeon herself has repeatedly stated that she is not a supporter of such a scenario, but allowed any options to force London to recognize the legitimacy of the future Scottish vote. She also admitted that in the event of blocking by the British Tories, the dispute over this issue will end in court.
On Saturday, when the results of the vote in Scotland became clear, Johnson decided to appear as a peacemaker, extending an olive branch to his opponents. He invited the leaders of the three constituent entities of the state (Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland) to gather with him for the “Summit of Unity”, which he already called “Team UK”. In his characteristic pompous manner, the British Prime Minister addressed Sturgeon with an appeal to jointly deal with common “challenges unprecedented in our history”. And not a word about the fact that one of these challenges is the desire of the Scots for independence, confirmed by a fresh vote.
Judging by Johnson’s recent actions, he, despite his categorical rejection of the possibility of holding a Scottish referendum, has already begun to actively prepare for it. In the end, even the absolute majority of the inhabitants of England (not to mention other subjects of the kingdom) on the eve of regional elections recognized the right of the Scots to a second referendum in the event of a victory of the separatists.
According to a number of British newspapers, last week Johnson consulted with members of his government on the subject of injecting budget billions into the construction and repair of highways and railways in Scotland in order to demonstrate the benefits of a single state to the local population.
In addition, at the government level, the issue of supporting student exchanges, both foreign and between regions of Britain, is being discussed. This is important from a unionist point of view. The main misfortune of the supporters of the preservation of a single state is that mainly older people oppose the independence of Scotland. The electoral base of the separatists is made up of young people. This ensures a constant increase in SNP ratings. It is no coincidence that even after the first referendum on independence, media mogul Rupert Murdoch, very well versed in all the intricacies of the political structure of Britain, suggested that self-government in Scotland “seems inevitable for the next few years.”
A recent survey of Scottish youth aged 16 to 35 found 62 percent support for independence from Britain in this age group. But unionists are delighted to see the share drop to 31 percent immediately if young people are persuaded of declining living standards in independent Scotland. From this it becomes clear what tactics London will choose to change the troubling tendencies for itself: young Scots will begin to intimidate with the prospect of sharp impoverishment if they leave the United Kingdom.
In this regard, supporters of British unity followed very closely the results of voting in the two most remote districts of Scotland – Shetland and Orkney. The fact is that all the economic arguments and calculations of the SNP about the future prosperity of the independent region are based on “Scottish oil” allegedly taken by London (namely, on the shelf of these islands, Britain produces up to 90 percent of its oil and gas). But the islands least of all want to become part of an independent Scotland and prefer to remain in the UK.
And now, to the delight of the unionists, the islanders have voted for representatives of the Liberal Democratic Party, which fiercely supports the preservation of the common British state. But here, too, tendencies that are dangerous for London have emerged. If two years ago, LDP spokeswoman Beatrice Wishard won early elections in the Shetland Islands with a comfortable advantage over the SNP candidate (almost 20 percent), then this year the Scottish nationalists narrowed the gap to just seven. If we compare with the results of the next elections five years ago, the SNP has almost doubled its indicators.
If such tendencies persist, the supporters of the all-British state will begin to lose on the northern islands, depriving London of the possibility of using the “separatism within separatism” maneuver.
It is safe to say that the last elections are a new stage in the struggle of Scotland for gaining independence. Judging by the rhetoric of the main players, this fight will be tough. And regardless of its final outcome, a long-lasting constitutional crisis in a kingdom without a constitution is guaranteed.
Vladimir Kornilov, RIA