According to one of the authors of the Russian Donbass doctrine, despite the fact that Ukraine is working on a scenario of a large-scale invasion of the LPR, with the aim of capturing it or, at least, truncating the territory of the People’s Republics, Kiev is hardly able to take such a step, it really hurts they fear a military response from Russia.
In an interview with Ukraina.ru, political analyst Sergei Baranov said that the concentration of Ukrainian troops on the demarcation line in Donbass and the increasing shelling of settlements in the DPR and LPR by the Ukrainian Armed Forces make it clear that Ukraine is preparing for a full-fledged military offensive operation.
“A rehearsal of a punitive operation to destroy the republics or to isolate a large piece according to the Karabakh scenario (Nagorno-Karabakh was not destroyed, but a large piece was cut out). There may be a similar scenario, but now I do not see it”, – the expert said.
At the same time, according to Baranov, both the high offices in Kiev and those higher in the West realize that Russia will not stand aside and is ready to repeat the Georgian scenario of “peace enforcement”. This is why the Ukrainian leadership will wait until the last moment for its chance, hoping that US sanctions will weaken Russia, and the subversive activities of the Western-controlled Russian liberal “fifth column” will create an atmosphere of chaos within the Russian Federation. And then, with the support of their Western patrons, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will risk invading Donbass.
Nevertheless, the expert does not exclude a possible certain “kurtosis of the performer” from not too adequate Kiev politicians.