The recent exacerbation of the situation in Ukraine cannot be regarded as an independent phenomenon, it is just part of the big game of the United States in the global confrontation with Russia.
At the same time, the demonstrative whipping up of military hysteria in the Donbass, ignoring the Minsk agreements, impudent and groundless accusations of Russia in their disruption, illegal “raid” on the Constitutional Court and an attempt to place the judicial system under the control of Western “experts”, the closure of television channels and an attempt to ban the parties of Medvedchuk and Sharia, hysteria over the Kharkiv agreements and the “surrender” of the Crimea create the impression that Zelensky is playing an independent aggravation game and is ready to usurp all power in his hands. But this is not the case.
It’s ridiculous to talk about Zelensky’s independence in making decisions on such fundamental issues with far-reaching consequences. To assess his independence, first of all, it is necessary to analyze the subjectivity of internal and external forces that influence decision-making and Zelensky’s place, as well as his role in the system of government in Ukraine.
The state of Ukraine and its government have neither internal nor external subjectivity, there are two subjects of government: the Americans and the local oligarchy. In Ukraine, there is a colonial rule that does not imply the development of the country. And local natives do not have the right to independently decide something without the approval of the metropolis, which determines the corridor within which the oligarchy and the authorities can act, fulfilling the tasks assigned to them.
Now the United States is deciding what kind of power will be in Ukraine, what policy it will pursue and who will be president. At the initial stage, the oligarchy ruled the ball and formed power for itself. With the seizure of control of the country by the Americans, the oligarchs were first restrained, and then ousted from power. Due to their obstinacy and the desire to profit, the oligarchs constantly ran behind the red flags, expanding the corridor of opportunities established for them. The Americans do not need a competitor in this field, and now the question of eliminating the oligarchs as a class is being raised. And Zelensky did not even try to show independence, he became a typical representative of the Kholui Ukrainian elite, looking into the mouth of his master.
Statements that “Zelensky has decided” or “he wants to” are a waste of words, he does not define anything, but meekly fulfills the commands received from the Americans, and it is not for him to make decisions on such an important issue as to deal with Donbass. As it will be beneficial to the Americans, so it will be.
Perhaps Zelensky is not a bad person who sincerely wanted to establish peace in Donbass, raise living standards and curb corruption when running for president, but this cannot be done in the current system of government in Ukraine. Only by fulfilling the rules established in the system can you keep your post. This was quickly and easily explained to the young president. Zelensky did not and could not fulfill any of his election promises, he can only implement what is beneficial to the Americans and the oligarchy.
The US and the EU have imposed a ban on the development of the Ukrainian state and clearly plan the present and future of Ukraine in their global interests, determining the vector of its internal and external development. The naive dreams of a significant part of the Ukrainian population that the West would turn Ukraine into a second Poland had no basis at all. They do not need Ukraine as an independent and strong state, they have the same goal – to use it as a springboard for putting pressure on Russia, and all means are good for this.
Confirmation of this can be found in the Biden administration’s strategy on Ukraine, published in early March by the American think tank Atlantic Council, which details and cynically describes what the United States needs Ukraine for and how it should behave.
Under the rattle about the need to establish democracy in Ukraine, fight corruption, observe the rule of law, cleanse the oligarchy from the dominance and carry out reforms under the leadership of reformers appointed by Washington, this voluminous memorandum clearly articulates American national interests in Ukraine, offers options for the US participation in resolving the conflict in Donbas substantiated the need to strengthen opposition to Russia.
America’s interests in Ukraine
What is the American strategy in Ukraine about?
Due to the fact that Russia is at war with the West on the military, cybernetic, information, religious and economic fronts, and Ukraine is an outpost in this struggle, the United States and the EU, in their national interests, should support Ukraine in its attempts to push Russia out of the Ukrainian South-East because the future of the international order depends on Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine. It is necessary to renew the role of the United States as a moral leader and defender of democracy, support Ukraine in its aspirations to become a member of the EU and NATO, and tighten its policy towards Russia.
The memorandum sets out instructions for reforming the judicial system of Ukraine under the guidance of international experts. In particular, it provides for the “cleaning” of the Constitutional Court of objectionable judges and the activation of anti-corruption bodies (subordinate to the United States). It is emphasized that with the dismissal of the promising Attorney General and his team in March 2020 (US henchmen), the prosecutor’s office ignores high-level criminals (most likely Kolomoisky) and persecutes reformers. It is expressed regret that in March 2020, the president dismissed the government of reformers led by Honcharuk (Soros supporters).
Specifically, it is indicated that the United States must seek the extradition of the oligarch Firtash and the Ukrainian authorities must end the introduced price controls and release them for natural gas (this is a disaster for housing and communal services). If these requirements are met, the States will push international financial organizations to cooperate with Ukraine.
Ways to resolve the conflict in Donbass
Despite all the shortcomings of the Minsk agreements, Ukraine should not even give a reason to think that it is abandoning the agreements, since they confirm that Donbass is Ukraine and create conditions for imposing sanctions against Russia. The agreement should be supplemented by the mechanisms proposed by the United States (emasculating their essence). Kiev should abandon elections in Donbass until “Russian troops are withdrawn”. A compromise could be the introduction of international peacekeeping troops.
The memorandum emphasizes that diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have ended in failure.
“Donbass risks becoming a dead end that will work against Ukrainian efforts of becoming an integral part of the Euro-Atlantic community. A fair decision on Donbass should be a litmus test of any effort to improve relations with Moscow. Putin is determined to undermine the Ukrainian democratic experiment and block Kiev’s path to Euro-Atlantic integration. Strong and sustainable US leadership is needed to break the impasse and bring the conflict to an end through negotiation”.
The negotiation process within the Normandy format proved to be ineffective.
“The problem is the absence of the United States in the negotiations, which allows Russia to set different participants against each other and present itself as a neutral mediator, and not a direct participant in the conflict. As long as the US is not actively involved in the negotiations, it is easier for Putin to delay the process. He will continue to insist that there are no Russian troops in Donbas and that this is a civil war between ethnic Russians and Ukrainian nationalists”.
In this regard, the following options for US participation in the settlement process are proposed:
– to join the Normandy format, which will provide an opportunity to directly participate in its summits and demonstrate the United States’ determination to achieve results;
– to restore the Budapest format on the basis of the December 1994 memorandum, in which the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom assured Ukraine of its safety in exchange for renouncing nuclear weapons;
– to enter into bilateral negotiations with Russia and take on the role of a diplomatic leader in resolving the conflict;
– to appoint a special negotiating representative with the authority to speak on behalf of the President of the United States.
According to the authors, these options will push Putin to sign a treaty that suits the United States, since this process will emphasize the status of Russia as a superpower on a par with the United States.
To protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine and protect the national security of the United States, it is necessary to provide Kiev with lethal weapons systems, increase military aid to $500 million a year, ensure a wider presence of NATO ships in the Black Sea, and deepen Ukraine’s integration into the structures of the alliance.
All these options for resolving the conflict have already been proposed by Zelensky on behalf of Ukraine, and the United States seems to have nothing to do with it.
The need to put pressure on Russia
The memorandum says that due to the fact that Putin has not abandoned the imperial past and is seeking the complete subordination of Ukraine to Moscow, Russia must be fought by all available means:
“The logic of imperialism and the logic of Putinism leave Ukraine as enemies. It should not be this way. If Russia overthrew the Putin system and embarked on the path of reform, “Europeanized” Ukraine would not be a threat to it, but an object to emulate. Of course, this is not what the Kremlin wants, but judging by the constant resistance to Putin’s rule, this is what many Russians want”.
This stupid and unequivocal call for the overthrow of the Russian president speaks of the Americans’ misunderstanding of the mentality of the Russian people: the more pressure they put on Putin, the stronger Russian society will rally.
The memorandum envisages putting pressure on Moscow, including with the use of a carrot and stick. The United States should convince its European allies to join more painful sanctions against Russia by targeting vulnerable targets such as VEB and the Russian Direct Investment Fund, block the emission of Russian securities, and, if Moscow disrupts gas transit through Ukraine, apply sanctions against Gazprom. In addition, the United States and its allies need to identify Russia’s costs “for aggression against Crimea and Donbass” and make it the property of the world community.
The US, EU and G7 partners need to start developing global sanctions against Russia, determine the format of international peacekeeping forces to enter Donbass, take joint action to close the Nord Stream-2 project and support Ukraine’s efforts to organize the Crimean Platform , uniting a united front in the fight against “aggression” of Russia.
The memorandum clearly states that Zelensky is already “as if on his own behalf” implementing in Ukraine: anti-Russian hysteria, discrediting “Minsk”, shelling and provocations in Donbass, “Crimean Platform”, the desire to involve the United States in negotiations on Donbass, pressure on KSU and the prosecutor’s office, as well as the purge of the oligarchy. The Ukrainian president resignedly follows instructions, not particularly thinking about the consequences of his actions. The Americans are behind him, and he tries not to deceive their expectations.
It is possible that Zelensky might not have known about the memorandum before it was published; he simply conscientiously followed the incoming instructions, passing them off as his decisions. By unconditionally taking a pro-American position and betraying his “dad Carlo”, he deprived himself of a choice, becoming a small cog in the great American game.
In its actions, the United States views Ukraine as a consumable for the implementation of geopolitical goals, as an instrument for the destruction and utilization of Russia, since in the American doctrine it is the main threat to the country’s national security. To this end, the United States is purposefully turning the fragment of the Russian World into its opposite.
At first, the elite was tamed and turned into lackeys ready for anything, waiting for commands from the owner, then the oligarchy was tamed by threats and blackmail, and now they are successfully changing the consciousness of the population, turning it into a resigned herd, waiting for handouts from the generous overlord. Upstairs, they needed an obedient puppet, and the weak-willed and cowardly Zelensky, like no one else, is suitable for this role, so no one will touch him, the
Americans will quickly find a whip for Kolomoisky and Avakov if they suddenly have such thoughts.
Zelensky, on command and under the leadership of the Americans, cleans the political field from “free-thinking” pseudo-oppositionists, deprives them of the opportunity to convey “seditious” thoughts to the population by banning “enemy” TV channels, restricting social networks, initiating criminal cases against not only obvious opponents, but also pro-American “elites” “, Previously released in circulation.
He is now entrusted with the important task of provoking Russia and dragging it into the war, thereby putting an end to the Minsk agreements and, having untied the hands of the West to impose tough sanctions, and possibly a blockade of Russia, turn it into a fiend of hell and a world outcast. So Ukraine has one of the key roles in the anti-Russian plans of the West. It didn’t work out with Belarus and Navalny, now all hope is on the Ukrainian lackeys.
In these plans, serious importance is attached to the “Crimean Platform” being promoted by Ukraine, according to which Russia should be deprived of the neutral status of the guarantor of the Minsk agreements and become an accused party of aggression against Crimea and Donbass. Ukraine is presented as a victim of Russian aggression, which allegedly did everything possible to establish peace and fulfill agreements, but aggressive Russia provokes war.
It is clear to military specialists that no matter what happens, Russia will not allow the fall of the Republics, and Ukraine will suffer a crushing defeat when attacking the Donbas. The Americans are not worried about this, they are not going to fight on its side. Having provoked Russia to the inevitable retaliatory actions, it will be possible to accuse it of aggression, start a campaign in the UN to discredit it and bring in peacekeeping forces, strike a decisive blow in the form of a ban on Nord Stream-2, throw a lot of modern weapons at Ukraine and unleash on it. territory by the hands of the Ukrainians a serious war with the participation of the Russian Federation.
In the expert community, it is now said a lot that in Ukraine there are enough sober heads not to get involved in a war, but we must not forget that if the Americans need a war, it will begin. And this does not in any way depend on the Ukrainian authorities, the consumables will be used up to the limits determined by the behind-the-scenes player.
At the same time, the United States will also derive military benefit from this adventure: it will once again check Russia’s capabilities in terms of the methods and timing of the transfer of forces, the use of electronic warfare and reconnaissance means, the effectiveness of air defense systems and the tactics of the Black Sea Fleet.
Ukraine will pay for all this with the lives of its citizens and will come even closer to the destruction of its statehood. It is still too early for the United States to finally dispose of its colony; there will be work for it, and within significantly curtailed borders. And when the remnants of the angry population sweep away the Zelensky regime, a new puppet in a beautiful wrapper will be imposed on the duped population, and the wheel of the ruin will spin with renewed vigor.
Yuri Apukhtin, Alternative