The expert community is analyzing the new “sanctions reality,” which is slowly but surely replacing international law
According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, this is happening because the West has lost the art of diplomacy and is imposing on others the rules that supposedly should form the basis of the world order. And sanctions are one type of such rules.
Experts note that in an applied sense, the “sanctions reality” has already arrived. Because there is a working infrastructure of this reality, a sufficient resource base, and most importantly, the willingness of the elites to remain in this very “sanctions reality”. This thesis is particularly applicable to the situation in Russia and the US. Experts note that the sanctions against our country have not yet reached the level of anti-Iranian sanctions. But the parties are playing to raise the stakes. On the other hand, if rates do rise, they are somehow hesitant to do so.
RBC Agency recalls that the new US sanctions include the blacklisting of several Russian officials and state organizations by the US Treasury Department, several symbolic measures by the State Department (such as halting the virtually non-existent export of US arms to Russia) and tightening restrictions by the US Department of Commerce on the export of dual-use goods and technologies to Russia.
From the statistics studied by RBC, it appears that in terms of export restrictions, the sanctions will affect less than 1 percent of annual U.S. shipments to Russia in monetary terms.
“Many leaders of the Russian electronics industry have long been on the U.S. Department of Commerce sanctions lists, so import substitution in terms of component base in critical technology areas is an ongoing process,” the Ministry of Industry and Trade commented to RBC. “Moreover, the radio electronics market today is not just technologies from the United States, it includes a range of available products from other countries,” the press service said.
The agency writes that actual exports to Russia of goods and technologies controlled from the US national security perspective did not exceed $91 million in 2019 and $139 million in 2018. Licensed exports to Russia may have declined further in 2020. Given that the US has taken certain software shipments out of the scope of the new restrictions, Russia could lose no more than $29 million in US goods and technology (based on 2019 data) due to stricter export controls. This is 0.5% of total US exports to Russia for 2019. The vast majority of U.S. exports to Russia do not require special permits – mainly civilian aircraft, pharmaceutical products, medical devices, ground transportation, and electrical machinery and equipment.
However, experts remind that the Biden administration is threatening a second wave of sanctions. But such a move, according to the analysts, will only make the process of excluding imports from the technological chains of Russian enterprises more intense. And, in general, it will even stimulate the national industry because the money used to pay for the imports will remain in the country and will be used to develop new technologies.
Biden should answer the question of how tough anti-Russia sanctions can be without jeopardizing the interests of the U.S. government and U.S. business. After all, Russia is far more integrated into the global economy than Iran, for example.
Most importantly, the experts say that history knows of no successful example of sanctions against a major state, if success is understood as a change in the behaviour of that state. There is a growing debate in the US foreign policy establishment that sanctions have become simply a convenient tool to justify their own ineffectiveness. Not only are they extrajudicial and unaccountable. What is dangerous is that one ceases to care about their ineffectiveness. Sanctions become an end, not a means, only exacerbating the crisis. Such is the strange game…
The problem is that radicalism has become the new norm in American politics. It appears that Biden intends to pursue a line of building a liberal world order adapted to the current realities. Biden is trying to reinforce America’s shaken leadership in the world and among Western countries by betting on fighting illiberal regimes (though formally rejecting the export of democracy by force).
There is no doubt that sanctions against Moscow will only intensify. Washington is unlikely to relinquish the pressure, as it expects a number of internal political processes in Russia to intensify. However, by promoting its own values agenda, the Biden administration is demonstrating pragmatism in areas where cooperation is still possible. These are arms control, peaceful space, climate change, cooperation in the Middle East and the Arctic and infectious diseases.
However, it is naive to count on much progress here. According to experts, Biden does not feel the need for a serious dialogue with Moscow. Perhaps this is the most important thing to know about the U.S.-Russian dialogue.
PolitAnalytics