In the Western press, there are more and more statements about the “militarization of the Kaliningrad region” and about the threat allegedly emanating from this Russian region
However, a new and very important detail has recently been added to this familiar information background: there are direct calls to “complete the task of neutralizing Kaliningrad”. That is, its direct capture.
Recently, the Polish edition of Gazeta Polska made an assertion that Russia could allegedly start an armed conflict with NATO from the territory of the Kaliningrad region, due to its convenient strategic position. According to the authors of the article, Russia during such a conflict “does not exclude the possibility of using the most deadly weapons” to destroy the forces stationed on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Creating a sense of fear
The authors of Gazeta Polska are scared with the following:
“It can be assumed that the attack would have been conducted from the Kaliningrad region. The strategic position and the variety of types of weapons that are stationed there would guarantee Russia success in the first hours of a hypothetical war”.
This is not the only such example. In particular, the columnist Mark Episkopos, in his article in the American magazine National Interest, writes that the series of military exercises “West-2021”, which Russia will conduct jointly with Belarus in September, is designed to simulate an escalation of a military conflict with a conditional state. Among the main tasks of these maneuvers, Episkopos worries, is the destruction of cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
“The full scale of the West-2021 exercises, which will be concentrated in the Moscow, Bryansk, Smolensk and Kursk districts on the western flank of Russia and in the Central European enclave of the Russian Federation – Kaliningrad, has yet to be determined”, – the American expert points out.
He adds that there will be a significant air and missile defense component there. Episkopos draws this conclusion based on a recent statement by the Western Military District (WMD) of Russia, which says that the West-2021 exercise will focus on combating cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles. It also noted that “the exercises will focus on more unconventional combat weapons, including electronic countermeasures and training in military reconnaissance”.
The American edition notes:
“According to Moscow and Minsk, the exercises are designed to simulate an escalation of a military conflict with a conditional state”.
Interestingly, even the Western media emphasize that the Russian exercises will be primarily defensive (a significant component of air and missile defense).
Polish dreams of “Krulevets”
At the same time, Western media, referring to military sources in NATO, reveals the possibility of a military attack on Kaliningrad. For ostensibly defensive purposes, of course.
In particular, it is worth paying attention to the article posted on the American military analytical portal Overtdefense.com.
The author of this article, referring to the American NGO “Naval Analytical Center”, described a plan “to eliminate Russian troops in the Kaliningrad region”. This plan includes missile strikes at the location of the Iskander tactical missile systems (with a postscript: “to prevent Moscow from waging a limited nuclear war”), as well as S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft missile systems. In the ground operation to occupy the Kaliningrad region, a significant role is assigned to the Polish army.
According to the Kaliningrad journalist Andrei Vypolzov, the scenario described belongs to Poland, which wants to “rule the governor-general” in the Kaliningrad region even more than the Germans.
“The military couch pansy reminded of itself again, having composed a “scenario of a preventive NATO strike on the Kaliningrad region”.
Since the creation was published on the American portal, a lot of people decided that it was the work of the Pentagon. No matter how it is. It is the Poles who dream of “liquidating the Russian troops in the Kaliningrad region” (the author of the article on Overtdefense.com is the president of the Association of Humanitarian Law Students of the Jagiellonian University). This can be seen first of all at the beginning of the article, where the word in Russian is suddenly given in brackets – “Korolevs”! After all, it is the Poles, who call Kaliningrad Królewiec, hinting that these are “historically Polish lands”.
And the report, which the US portal refers to, was made by Konrad Muzyka, a well-known military analyst in Poland, who studied at the London University of Slavic and East European Studies, and now positions himself as a consultant on the Armed Forces of Russia and Belarus says the Telegram channel Partizan Vypolzov.
In 2019, the United States already announced a plan to seize the Kaliningrad region, with Poland also playing a key role. The document, titled How to defend the Baltic States, was prepared by the influential American NGO The Jamestown Foundation, which since its founding in 1984 has specialized first in Soviet and then “Russian threat”.
This text indicates that Moscow, they say, has not only sufficient military potential, but also intentions to seize the territory of the former Soviet republics – “including for the protection of the Russian minority, especially in Latvia and Estonia”. The US experts write that this will be a “quick invasion”, since the Baltic states are not able to defend themselves.
In order to spoil the life of Russians as much as possible, the Jamestown Foundation invites Poland, simultaneously with the “seizure of the Baltic states by Russia”, to fulfill the task of “neutralizing” the Kaliningrad region.
“This element is fundamental. First of all, it is necessary to deal with Kaliningrad, since the capture of this area will neutralize Russian countermeasures, deployed in large numbers, including Iskander missiles, S-400 and Bastion systems. This is necessary so that the NATO air and naval forces can effectively operate in the region and support the defense of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia”, – the report of the American Foundation said. It also emphasizes that it is the Polish strike forces located nearby, together with the US troops, that are the obvious tool for such a mission.
The most interesting thing there is plans for the future fate of the Kaliningrad region, taken from Russia.
The document says that since Poland will be asked to sacrifice the lives of its soldiers for the sake of neutralizing the Russian exclave, it “seems reasonable” to transfer the Kaliningrad region to the Poles as part of the “post-war settlement”.
The document mentions in passing that Russia, in the event of an attack on Kaliningrad, could threaten the use of tactical nuclear weapons, but this was considered unlikely. Moreover, as military analysts from the United States report, in two weeks the situation in the eastern regions of Europe will be under control, and in a month “the Russians should be expelled from Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia”.
And on January 30, 2021, a scenario was also posted on the website of the American organization Center for Naval Analyzes, describing the elimination of four main targets by NATO troops in the Kaliningrad region. It was about the destruction of launchers of short-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons (including the Iskander missile systems). In addition, the purpose of such a strike, American experts called damage to the Baltic Fleet of Russia, the elimination of the S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems in the region and the Russian troops in Kaliningrad.
When military analytics becomes “jeans”
Of course, Russia is forced to respond to NATO’s information and propaganda fuss over Kaliningrad. And above all – on the real military reinforcement of NATO troops near the Russian borders. The 18th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, newly formed in the Kaliningrad region in December 2020, received a historical banner on March 2 (it was first created in 1939 and participated in the defeat of the Nazis in East Prussia). The appearance of this unit (at least 12 thousand troops and about 200 tanks) followed the deployment of the 5th Army Corps of the US Army in neighboring Poland.
In addition, the air threat should not be disregarded. On March 3, a US strategic bomber B-1B flew over Vilnius, accompanied by two Italian Eurofighter Typhoon fighters on a mission to patrol NATO airspace in the Baltics. A similar demonstration of NATO’s strategic power on the same day took place in the skies of Latvia and Estonia, with the participation of Danish and Swedish fighters. Over the past three years, more than 200 American strategic bombers have been trained in the skies of Lithuania. It was directly stated that in this way NATO is training troops for the purpose of nuclear bombing of the Kaliningrad region.
According to military observer Alexander Khrolenko, the appearance of a new motorized rifle division in the westernmost region of the Russian Federation is Moscow’s expected response to the growing military activity of the United States and NATO in the Baltic region.
“The military group in the Kaliningrad region is acquiring a new structure as planned, increasing its capabilities. Earlier, the 132nd mixed air division was formed here, which included the 689th fighter, the 4th naval assault aviation regiment and the army aviation regiment. The 152nd Missile Brigade in Chernyakhovsk was re-armed at the Iskander-M OTRK. The coastal troops of the Baltic Fleet received modern long-range air defense systems S-400 Triumph, anti-ship missile systems Bal and Bastion”, – said Khrolenko.
It would seem that this is the very “militarization of Kaliningrad” that is constantly being declared in the West. But if you look at the situation impartially, it becomes clear that the above forces should be sufficient exclusively for the defense of the Kaliningrad region itself. Their number and composition only indicate a desire to protect the territory of the region – from attacks both from land and from the sea, and from the air.
However, according to the Kaliningrad political scientist Alexander Nosovich, a strike on the Russian exclave is turning into an obsession with US military policy. So, recently the analyst of the American Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Shane Preiswater said that 225 bombers are needed to break through the Russian air defense in this direction. Currently, there are only 140 such aircraft on the balance sheet of the American army, and the Pentagon plans to increase the aircraft fleet to 175 bombers by 2040, which is clearly not enough to defeat the Kaliningrad region. Therefore, the Pentagon, according to Praisewater, needs a more ambitious military order – it is necessary, they say, to increase the rate of armament with bombers, and give priority to the Rockwell B-1 Lancer and Boeing B-52 Stratofortress models, since “they can carry more weapons”.
It is worth noting a significant fact. In the Russian press, in the comments of experts and in the statements of specialists, nowhere has there ever been a hint of the existence of some kind of plan for the conquest of Poland and the Baltic states by Russia.
And this is understandable. Why should Russia seize these states, take this territory on the balance sheet and contain its hostile inhabitants? For what purpose? Neither Russian public policy, nor military doctrine and other state documents contain any plans for an attack on neighboring states.
However, the West is trying to come up with such artificial and ridiculous explanations as the irrational “aggressiveness of the Kremlin regime”, which, they say, is preparing for external conquests out of pure “love of art.” The thesis is ridiculous, but through daily persistent hammering it was possible to introduce it into the brains of many Poles, Estonians, Latvians, Lithuanians, and other representatives of the population of NATO member countries.
And this rhetoric in reality is fraught with considerable danger. After all, the bridge from the thesis about “irrationally aggressive Russia, constantly preparing for conquests” to the postulate about the need for “a preemptive strike in order to neutralize the aggressor in advance” is not so difficult to throw. And if at some point NATO decides to carry out an operation to seize the Kaliningrad region, it will be presented to the general public as an act of “forced preventive protection”.
Valentin Zhukov, VZGLYAD