The United States lost the war over Taiwan to China for the fifth time in a row
Washington urgently needs to radically change the top leadership of the PRC to a deliberately more pro-Western one. Or, at least, one that will be much more accommodating in recognizing the secondary role of China in an unconditionally American-centric global world.
The process of changing power can only be triggered by inflicting a large-scale defeat on China, which clearly indicates the unattainability of its current plans to raise the country by 2049.
To prevent the Chinese authorities from resorting to the use of strategic nuclear weapons, the Chinese army must be defeated “somewhere off to the side”, on the territory that does not touch mainland China. This makes Taiwan the only place where the PLA will be forced to act not in full force, and the United States has the opportunity to defeat the Chinese expeditionary force in an exemplary manner.
This is in theory badly needed by politicians and financiers. Because in practice, things are a little different. Since 2016, the Pentagon annually, as part of the command and staff exercises, has been conducting mathematical modeling of a possible war between the United States and China “for Taiwan”, which consistently ends with the defeat of the US fleet.
The purpose of what is happening is to identify the weaknesses of the American military machine in the Indo-Pacific region, develop and implement measures to eliminate them, as well as search for effective measures to stop the growing naval military power of China.
As the regular headquarters exercises in October-November 2020 showed, things are going very badly so far. The US Navy is capable of knocking out many Chinese ships at the stage of the transfer of an amphibious order by sea through the Taiwan Strait, but even if successful, it remains unable to seize dominance at sea in a strip 500-600 nautical miles wide from the Chinese coast, which casts doubt on the ability of the The United States to transfer to Taiwan the number of ground forces sufficient to defeat the Chinese landing.
Moreover, since 2018, American military analysts have been forced to state that, when China needs it, its air force is guaranteed to capture and maintain absolute air supremacy not only over Taiwan itself, but also over Manila (the capital of the Philippines located on the island of Luzon), and also over the entire southern ridge of the Japanese islands, from Okinawa (where the American naval and air force base is located) and to the island of Kyushu. Even the western part of the Philippine Sea is becoming risky for finding American attack aircraft carrier groups and, in general, surface ship formations.
As Air Force Lieutenant General Clinton Hinote, who was once the deputy chief of staff of the US Armed Forces, once said, after analyzing the results of the exercises in 2018, one of the admirals of the American fleet resigned, saying to the chief of staff of the Air Force that it makes no sense to repeat such exercises further, nothing will not change, it will only get worse: if the United States cannot resort to strategic nuclear weapons to deliver a preemptive strike, a war with China in any form of strategic meaning has no strategic meaning.
Judging by the results of the 2020 exercise, he was absolutely right. The US Navy lost the war for Taiwan to China for the fifth time in a row.
In theory, the stability of a negative result should require the country’s political leadership to change its approach and stimulate the search for peaceful solutions to the frictions that have arisen between the United States and China. However, the current situation leaves the Americans no choice. If the United States does not manage to “turn China” before 2030, then after 2040 the risk of the disintegration of the United States becomes absolute. This means that the Pentagon will continue to “search for a formula for military victory”.
RUSSTRAT