Even Taiwanese warlords understand that US authorities will not make sacrifices for the semi-recognised island nation
Escalating tensions between the U.S. and China have reached an all-time high, and Taiwan could become a collision point for the two powers. But can the US really win that confrontation? The facts make it doubtful, Bloomberg writes, citing a report by Robert Blackwill and Philip Zelikow.
As respected U.S. policymakers, Blackwill and Zelikow say a crisis is looming in Taiwan. They call the island “the most dangerous flashpoint in the world for a possible war” that could involve not only the US and China but also other major nations.
The Biden administration appears to share this position, preparing for full-scale war. Thus, the US president has already held talks with the leaders of Australia, India and Japan; State Department and Pentagon heads Tony Blinken and Lloyd Austin are preparing visits to Japan and South Korea; and the first meeting between Blinken and China’s leaders is due next week. Moreover, last Wednesday the US Navy conducted a mock exercise to “confirm its right of passage through the Taiwan Strait”.
There is certainly a chance of avoiding the crisis turning into an armed clash and even a nuclear conflict, Bloomberg writes. But even in the best of all possible scenarios, America would suffer colossal damage through cyberattacks.
Cambridge University predicts that a digital blackout in just 15 states could cost $1 trillion, not counting the death toll from disrupted health, traffic and industrial systems.
Max Hastings, British historian and journalist: “A few years ago, when I was often in China, I was struck by how often ordinary Chinese people raised the Taiwan issue. Their concerns reflected years of state propaganda. Westerners should realise that when President Xi Jinping rattles his guns, which he does with increasing frequency, he has the genuine support of the people. Taiwan arouses the same feelings among its people as Cuba did among Americans 60 years ago – and look how that story almost ended.”
The Blackwill and Zelikow report argues that China is now in a pre-war state. China, meanwhile, is ready to exploit any weakness in the West to close the Taiwan issue once and for all. And there are enough weaknesses even in American foreign policy, the Bloomberg piece emphasizes. By inflaming the situation, the US has never dared to take direct responsibility for Taiwan’s fate. Instead, Washington prefers to sell arms to Taipei and talk about the need to fortify the island.
Too many Taiwanese politicians rely on a U.S. military strike if China attacks. But there is a more realistic view.
Li Ximin, admiral and Chief of General Staff of Taiwan: “All I hear is that the United States will intervene. What reason is there to believe that the United States will sacrifice the lives of its own children to protect Taiwan?”
Blackwill and Zelikow believe that in the current situation, Washington needs to create military conditions where China would be disadvantaged by an attack on Taiwan. They compare the situation to the Munich deal, when Great Britain and France yielded Czechoslovakia to the mercy of Adolf Hitler, but were unable to avoid war.
To be fair, China’s claims about Taiwan are more valid because, as Bloomberg says, it would be difficult for the United States to convince its allies to stand up to Beijing. Moreover, the pandemic and deep internal political divisions make America a weak foreign policy player.