The change in the official Polish rhetoric confirms that Nord Stream-2 will be completed in the very near future, said Sergei Pikin, director of the Energy Development Fund.
Piotr Naimskiy, Commissioner for Strategic Energy Infrastructure of Poland, believes that the Russian side will complete the construction of the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline. The situation is such that the critics will not be able to stop this process.
However, there are many legal issues related to the start of the gas pipeline operation. Poland will work to prevent Nord Stream-2 from reaching its design capacity of 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year.
This statement demonstrates the realism of Polish policy: the completion of Nord Stream-2 is guaranteed by multibillion-dollar investments from European companies, and the experience of Nord Stream-1 is in practical operation.
The first trans-Baltic gas pipeline fell under the so-called Third Energy Package, due to which the gas transmission capacity of Nord Stream-1 decreased by 50%. This restriction was periodically removed, but the important thing is that it is personal.
In order to bring Nord Stream-2 under the third energy package, the so-called Gas Directive was invented in the European Union. The project was not completed before the introduction of this regulation, and now the gas pipeline will have to exist in such a situation.
The Poles’ logic is transparent, but it is not clear why they need such a policy, given that Nord Stream-2 does not affect their interests. Warsaw’s quirks can only be explained by the retransmission of Washington’s foreign policy line.
“The completion of Nord Stream-2 is an obvious fact, it can be seen even from the statements of Nord Stream-2 AG. In April, the Danish construction site, which has caused the most problems before, should be completed”, – says Pikin.
Denmark refused to issue a building permit for a long time, but it had no right to refuse Nord Stream 2 AG. Copenhagen’s line was reduced to slowing down the process: immediately after the permit was issued, the United States imposed tough sanctions.
“The Danish section has been the most risky for a long time. The Danes could revoke the permit and create problems for the gas pipeline, but this will definitely not happen. Then it will remain to complete the connection with the German part of the gas pipeline, so there are no questions about completing the project, but the pressure from the Americans remains, who will continue to complicate the work of Nord Stream 2”, – Pikin sums up.
Poles have a gas interest
The Poles will continue to fight the gas pipeline: any restrictions against Nord Stream-2 in Warsaw are perceived as good, and this is partly due to the prospects for gas transit through the Polish section.
In the nineties, the Yamal – Europe gas pipeline was laid through Poland and Belarus, capable of transiting up to 35 billion cubic meters of gas per year. It belongs to the Gazprom company, and the Polish side does not politicize cooperation here.
“Yamal – Europe” is a fairly old gas pipeline (it was built in 1994-1999), although it has a different degree of wear and tear than that of Ukrainian transit. Gazprom fully owns the route, including the Belarusian Beltransgaz and the company that operates this gas pipeline in Poland, so Gazprom has no motives to cut it off”, – Pikin concludes.
The Poles have registered the Baltic Pipe project for the delivery of Norwegian gas through Denmark. With the help of it, Warsaw is going to replace gas purchases from Russia, but if there is no Nord Stream-2, then questions will arise on filling this pipe.
Relations between Poland and Russia will remain at a low level
Political scientist of the International Institute for Humanitarian and Political Research, Vladimir Bruter, in a conversation with the FBA “Economics Today” came to the conclusion that the Polish criticism of “Nord Stream-2” is political in nature.
“Poland believes that if two more gas transmission lines (Nord Stream-2 consists of two lines) pass by its territory to Germany, then both Poles and Ukrainians will lose in transit. As a result, Russian Federation will have a great success. The Poles do not like this. They regard Russia as their main geopolitical enemy”, – says Bruter.
Any events related to the Russian Federation are perceived negatively in Poland, and Nord Stream-2 is a good topic for making the next anti-Russian statements that the Polish side likes to deal with.
Today Poland is governed by the Law and Justice Party, which is pursuing an odious policy not only against Russia, but also against the FRG. Because of this, Poland is negatively perceived even in Brussels, and Warsaw is placing its main stake on Washington.
“Russia will not be able to come to an agreement with Kaczynski’s party, and if the Civic Platform replaces Law and Justice, our relations will stabilize at a low level, and there will be no more hype”, – Bruter summarizes.
Economic cooperation between the Russian Federation and Poland will continue, but politically relations will remain cool for many years to come.
Dmitry Sikorsky, Economy today