There was a scandal in relations between the European Union and another union called the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
The prime minister of the royal government, Boris Johnson, offended the EU. In an unexpected and insidious way. In the place of the EU, everyone would be offended. Although it is not the first time that the EU is offended by its neighbor on the opposite bank of the canal.
The first time this happened five years ago, when the referendum on leaving the European Union, started by then Prime Minister David Cameron with the aim of only scaring the “Brussels Regional Committee”, in fact turned into what has forever been called – Brexit. As a result, Cameron took offense at the British voter and resigned, giving way to Theresa May. And the European Union was offended by the United Kingdom and took long time with the release of this kingdom until December 31, 2019.
And at the same time it furnished this exit, that is, Brexit, with such harsh conditions that the Agreement on relations between partners signed by Boris Johnson after the official “divorce” caused a feeling of almost “betrayal” among a part of the British establishment. As you know, the stumbling block on the way to concluding a “deal” between Britain and the EU regarding the conditions of trade, economic, logistics, cultural, educational and other ties was the so-called support mechanism.
This term denotes the impossibility of abolishing the open border between Northern Ireland as one of the parts of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland located on the same island.
This openness is the fundamental principle on which peace on the island is based. The terrorist war waged by the Irish Republican Army (IRA) against government forces and the Ulster Protestant community for many years was ended only after a comprehensive agreement between the parties called the Good Friday Agreement. It was signed on Good Friday April 10, 1988 and has been in progress for nearly 33 years.
Yes, not everything is going smoothly. Every July 12, the Orange Protestant March to commemorate the victory over Irish Catholics at the Battle of the Boyne in 1690 poses a potential threat of a new outbreak of civil war. And really not without fights and brawls when the marching heads are sent to the Catholic quarters of Belfast. Not without separate cases of car explosions. But on the whole, peace is being maintained, and Ulster, in one way or another, remains an integral part of the United Kingdom.
But then Brexit burst out, and the question of an open border on the island stood squarely.
Theresa May tried to solve it, but her plan failed three times in the House of Commons (including the efforts of Boris Johnson) and as a result, in tears, she publicly announced her resignation. The fact is that her plans did not explain in any way how it was possible to leave the border between the two Ireland open and, at the same time, exclude smuggling from both sides? The question is topical, first of all, for the European Union, which is especially concerned about the “cleanliness” of its Single Market.
How did Boris Johnson manage to resolve this issue, and why did his plan receive the approval of the House of Commons and was adopted by the European Union? The fact is that Johnson agreed with the requirement of the European Union to introduce, as it were, customs control in the ports of Northern Ireland on all agricultural products coming from parts of the kingdom located on another island.
That de facto created a maritime border within Great Britain itself, turning Ulster into a “cut off hunk”. But it agreed on the condition that this regime will not be introduced immediately, but after a certain “grace period”, which will be used to find such a regime of control of the Irish border that satisfies the interests and removes the doubts of all parties. This period under the so-called Irish Protocol, as part of the general agreement between Britain and the EU, expires on March 31, 2021.
And so Boris Johnson on March 4 announces that he is independently extending this period by another six months until October 2021. The reaction of the offended European Union followed immediately. From initial outrage, the Brussels bosses moved on to direct threats. A claim to the European Court of Justice, whose jurisdiction extends to the Brexit transaction, may be filed in the near future. And, if Britain refuses to comply with the court’s decision (and it is obvious), then in response the British goods entering the continent will be subject to duties.
Another very sensitive measure of influence for the British is to limit the possibilities for the City of London (where almost the entire financial industry of the country is located) to operate in the territory of the European Union. And in general, a decrease in the number of equivalent tolerances in the field of trade and economic relations between partners. Britain has requested 28 items on which partners could establish an equivalent relationship without resorting to customs duties, tariffs and other instruments that restrict freedom of trade.
Now the European Union is in the stage of ratifying a trade agreement between the parties, the European Parliament has not yet voted on this deal. And the likelihood that after Johnson’s decision to unilaterally extend the grace period for British, Scottish and Welsh suppliers of products for Northern Irish supermarkets, the European Parliament will vote for the deal in its previous form, is extremely small.
In other words, everything could ultimately turn into the very version of “hard Brexit” (No Deal), which Johnson’s opponents scared themselves and the British public back in 2019, and which Johnson himself safely avoided by signing the Agreement with the Irish Protocol. And now he himself has broken it. Roughly speaking, he threw partners. Why did he risk so much, not being afraid to earn a reputation as a “scammer” and, in general, a “outcast” in the European establishment? Does he really care? Or is he the British Trump for whom Britannia is the first!?
The latter is close to the truth, if only in the sense that for him the interests of Britain are indeed absolutely priority in relation to everyone else. But at the same time – he does not “care.” It is very likely that he did this, not going all-in, but only showing that he was only postponing the full implementation of the Irish Protocol in a difficult situation. You yourself understand: coronavirus, economic depression, the interests of Ulster residents, who should not experience a shortage of food and other products in their supermarkets due to delays in deliveries in the British domestic market at port customs. Suppliers of these products, already affected by the lockdown regime, should not suffer either.
None of this is publicly said, but obviously it is implied. That is, Boris Johnson expects that the European Union will perceive his decision as a purely “humanitarian” act, and not an impudent and shameless “scammer”. And he also counts on the fact that in the delayed time (almost seven months) he will still be able to find such a solution to this damned backstop, which will help avoid the actual division of the country along the border in the Irish Sea. And you need to avoid. Because peace in Ulster has been going on for 33 years, but it is still a fragile thing. The Catholic minority has not forgotten anything there, although it may have forgiven a lot. The British and their fellow Irishmen, but only Protestants.
And the wake-up call for Johnson from Ulster has already sounded. The Telegraph reports that “in Northern Ireland, loyalist paramilitaries have informed Boris Johnson that they are withdrawing their support for the Good Friday Agreement to protest the post-Brexit conditions of trade in Northern Ireland. The illegal groups have said they are temporarily withdrawing from their support for the peace treaty due to growing concerns about the Northern Ireland Protocol”.
And this is more than serious. Ulster’s Protestant unionists only feel masters because they are part of the United Kingdom. But next to it is Catholic Ireland and in Ulster itself – the Catholic minority, which are called “Republicans” because they do not hide their desire to seek unification with the Republic of Ireland. And 33 years ago, it backed up this desire with specific arguments – the terrorist acts of the IRA. By the way, the peaceful wing of the IRA, the Sinn Fein party, regularly participates in the parliamentary elections in Great Britain, receiving 6-7 seats. And he regularly demonstratively boycotts the work in the House of Commons, not participating in any meetings or voting. This is to be remembered.
So Boris Johnson, before whom the prospect of a Scottish referendum on independence looms, only lacked a civil war in Ulster.
But, as you know, it is better to implement what you undertake.
Leonid Polyakov, Political Analytics