Sergei Lavrov threatened the EU to break off relations in the event of the introduction of “sensitive” sanctions
At the same time, he did not clarify either the type of the gap or which sanctions would be sensitive.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is the most quoted (after President Putin, naturally) representative of the government. Some of his quotes are printed on T-shirts. Others are causing scandal (the minister’s equally legendary response in 2008 to his then British counterpart David Miliband to the claims of the Russian operation against Georgia). Still others allow individual comrades to sober up and reflect on their behavior.
Actually, it was the third version of the quote that Lavrov uttered the other day. In an interview, the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry announced his readiness to sever relations with the EU in the event “if we see again, as we have already felt more than once, that sanctions are being imposed in some areas that pose risks to our economy, including in the most sensitive areas”.
The reasons that prompted the Kremlin (and Lavrov, of course, spoke on behalf of the Russian authorities) are understandable. Russia has long endured the sanctions that the EU imposed on all sorts of far-fetched reasons – for Crimea, Ukraine, “interference in Western elections”, the Skripals case.
It endured, expressed concern, for the sake of form threatened with symmetrical answers – and hoped that Europe would go crazy, that the sanctions rage would either stop or continue to proceed in the form of measures introduced just for show (like personal sanctions against a number of insignificant politicians and officials). We waited – and from our own experience we were once again convinced of the truth of the expression that impunity for violence only leads to new violence. Well, or, more simply, if you don’t hit your hands in time, then you will have to hit in the face. Having not gotten a hand during the introduction of personal sanctions, Europe, which felt impunity, began (against the background of the Navalny case) to discuss more serious measures. Including sectoral sanctions.
Therefore, Lavrov makes it clear: there will be no more concerns, there will be tough actions. For they got it.
At the same time, Sergei Viktorovich does not indicate which sanctions will be perceived by Moscow as “sensitive”, after which the Kremlin will break off relations with the EU. Perhaps we are talking about sectoral sanctions – a ban on the export of high-tech goods to the Russian Federation, the closure of Nord Stream-2, a ban on the export of products of a number of Russian enterprises to the EU. They will indeed become sensitive – and not only because they will hit the already coronavirus-stricken Russian economy. If the sanctions imposed due to the provocation of the West (and Navalny’s “poisoning” is precisely a provocation) are left unpunished, they will break through the Overton window and pull a new string of even more serious restrictions.
However, it is possible that Moscow will consider a number of personal sanctions not related to the economy to be “sensitive”. For example, those that will be taken personally against Vladimir Putin. Yes, Western countries regularly impose ritual sanctions on the leaders of third world countries – but Russia is not a third world country. It has pride, dignity, sovereignty – and the ability to protect all of this. Including through the severance of relations with the EU.
Fear kills cooperation
And here is the second uncertainty in Lavrov’s words – he did not explain what the “break in relations” would be. It is unlikely that we are talking about a total break – the closure of the embassies of European countries, the interruption of economic, cultural and all other ties. For Russia, it will be like freezing ears to spite a European grandmother. After all, we didn’t build Nord Stream-2, we didn’t defend it, so that now it’s so easy to throw it into the trash under the joyful hooting of the Poles and Balts, as well as the grunting of Ukraine outside the EU.
Most likely, Sergei Viktorovich Lavrov had in mind the severance of relations with the EU as an institution and a return to bilateral relations with the countries that are interesting for us – members of the European Union. And indeed, what can we agree on with Brussels if the local bureaucrats must act on the basis of a common European consensus, and besides, when they talk, they look not into Lavrov’s eyes, but into the mouth of US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken? Better to conclude bilateral agreements with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban – as well as leaders of other European states that are not afraid to cooperate with Moscow.
In addition, Lavrov probably meant the termination of cooperation and consultations with the EU on major global and regional issues. For example, Ukrainian. Moscow participates in the unproductive Minsk and Normandy formats, supports the Minsk agreements in a situation where Kiev almost officially gave a damn about them. And if relations with Europe are severed, then there is no reason for Russia to observe European interests in Ukraine, as well as in Belarus.
Will the EU hear this ultimatum, read it correctly? With a high degree of probability – yes, he will hear and read. Eastern European countries will insist on new sanctions, but Western Europe may be wary of imposing them. Not for moral sake (if they had morality, they would not have imposed sanctions with one hand, stretching out the other for our “Sputnik V”), but solely from pragmatic motives.
However, at the same time, I would like Europe to hear the interlinear subtext in Lavrov’s statement. Not so much a threat of sanctions as a call for dialogue. Yes, today our ideologies are poorly combined. Russia stands for sovereignty, Europe, like the famous scorpion from the tale of the scorpion and the frog, cannot but sting Russia with topics of human rights observance. So Moscow is offering the EU to change its essence – to become a normal partner and neighbor.
This is not a threat – it is a proposal, indicating the likely consequences for the EU of continuing the current course. Therefore, the press secretary of Vladimir Putin Dmitry Peskov, who had to comment on Lavrov’s words, once again explained that the ball is on the side of the EU.
“We do not want this – we want to develop relations with the European Union, but if the European Union follows this path, then yes, we will be ready, because we must be prepared for the worst”.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, VZGLYAD