This week, the Ministry of Economic Development, Trade and Agriculture of Ukraine prepared scenarios for the development of the country’s economy until 2024.
As Daniil Bogatyryov, an expert at the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, writes on his Facebook page, 701.8 billion UAH will be borrowed in foreign markets in 2021. In 2022-2024, government borrowings will amount to more than UAH 550 billion. annually.
“The costs of repaying and servicing public debt over the next three years will remain significant. By the end of 2022, the government plans to pay off UAH 468.4 billion. the body of debt and UAH 158.7 billion. interest on it. In total – 627.1 billion UAH. In 2022, the state will spend UAH 555.2 billion on debt. In subsequent years, the cost of repaying and servicing the state debt will exceed UAH 600 billion annually”, – the expert says.
At the same time, the growth of tariffs for utilities will continue. According to the optimistic scenario, gas prices for the population in 2021 will grow by 20%, in 2022 – by 10%, and in 2023-2024. 5% annually. District heating and hot water in 2021 will have to pay 16-18% more than in 2020. In 2022, growth will be 6-9%, in 2023-2024 – 3-5%. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, electricity prices in 2021 will increase by 38% under the optimistic scenario and by 52% under the pessimistic scenario. In 2022, electricity will rise in price by another 15-20%.
At the same time, the volume of transfers from Ukrainian labor migrants will grow. In 2024, they will range from $13.3 billion under the pessimistic scenario to $14.4 billion under the optimistic scenario.
“Ask what this means?!” – Bogatyryov asks rhetorically.
“And the fact that the entire “development plan” from the Cabinet of Ministers is to borrow money from Western creditors and return them at the expense of extortions (hidden taxes embedded in tariffs) from the population. It is assumed that able-bodied citizens will go to work abroad and from there send money to families. And officials will collect them from families in the form of tariffs and other extortions and return them to the West. That is, in fact, the whole “economy”.