Foreign policy will be in the background among the priorities of the administration of American President Joe Biden due to the coronavirus, and Russia will not play the first roles in it, climate change and Iran will be a priority for the United States, but a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin should be on the American agenda leader, said Professor of Political Science at Bloomington University of Indiana Dina Speckler.
“I expected, even by Biden’s temperament, that he would actively seek out options for cooperation. But when I took the newspapers this morning to see where he wants to go, all I saw was START III”, – she told the reporters.
The expert expressed confidence that in the event of START-3 extension, the parties will actively negotiate a new treaty or supplement the existing one. At the same time, the latest statements by representatives of the administration regarding Russia, in her opinion, indicate that Biden has already formed quite clear views on Russia.
She drew attention to the statement of the White House press secretary Jen Psaki, who accused Russia of “rash and hostile actions”, as well as “the use of chemical weapons against opposition leader Alexei Navalny”. In addition, Psaki announced Biden’s order to investigate the hacker attack through SolarWind software and “Russia’s interference in the 2020 elections”. In turn, the press secretary of the Russian President Dmitry Peskov, speaking of Biden’s instructions to the special services to collect data on these topics, said that such investigations had taken place before, but nothing was confirmed.
“I don’t know if (Secretary of State) Tony Blinken, who in my opinion will be quite influential over time, shares them. This is the question that I’m trying to answer: what are Blinken’s views. But there is not much about that. For some reason he said little about everything”, – Speckler said.
Proximity of Trump
She noted that under former US President Donald Trump, there was less interaction between Washington and Moscow than ever at all levels, even in the days of the USSR, with very high tensions. The exception was the negotiations on START III, but they also intensified only towards the end of his term. In her opinion, the reason could be that, amid accusations of sympathy for Russia, he feared that any large-scale cooperation initiatives could attract additional criticism.
“The question now is whether there will be someone in the government who will advocate negotiations (with the Russian Federation) at different levels. And I don’t know, this is another important unknown here”, – Speckler said.
Among those who may be in this role, she named Wendy Sherman – the chief negotiator of the US on the JCPOA, whose candidacy Biden nominated to the place of the deputy secretary of state. In this case, we will talk about interaction with Russia on Iranian issues.
“And I don’t think there will be any objections”, – Speckler is sure.
If they are in the discussion of the Iranian nuclear program, then the main target will be Iran, not Russia, she said.
The inner is more important
“Right now, foreign policy is not Biden’s priority. He has colossal problems that need to be dealt with domestically. You’ve probably seen that we have more deaths from COVID than in World War II. And Biden is very, very much about this. Seriously… So, I think, with the exception of the topic of climate change, foreign policy will take place in the back seat, and we will not see a lot of new initiatives”, – said the agency’s source.
In addition, Iran will be among the priorities of foreign policy, where interaction with Russia is also inevitable, Speckler said.
“So this could be another arena for interaction and even cooperation”, – she said.
How long internal affairs will be more priority in relation to foreign policy is difficult to say, since much depends on success in combating the pandemic, the agency’s interlocutor added. Even if this can be dealt with in the foreseeable future, and we are already talking about the fall, then further economic recovery will come to the fore, which is also a difficult task for the administration, she said.
Not a priority, but need to meet
According to her, Russia is hardly among the priorities of US foreign policy and a new “reset” should not be expected.
“Right now, China is becoming an increasingly important issue as a threat, and much more energy, effort and political capital will be spent on China”, – Speckler said.
At the same time, the expert expressed the hope that Biden’s attitude towards dialogue with other countries would still play a positive role.
“Biden really values dialogue, contact and negotiation and believes in it as a way of doing business. I think there is some opportunity here as part of the overall philosophy of how we America should behave on the world stage. It’s contact, interaction and communication. He also refers to those who are deeply convinced to listen to the other side when there is antagonism, confrontation or competition. This basic philosophy gives me reason to think that we will somehow find opportunities for contact”, – she said.
In her opinion, a personal meeting between Biden and Putin could play a positive role.
“Always have to meet. Always have to speak. This will not be his first meeting, but I think it should be on his agenda, I hope it is there”, – Speckler said.