Many experts believe that Joe Biden’s international line will be based mainly on sanctions policy, financial pressure and economic alliances (which, however, does not cancel the arms race that has already started and the expansion of the military presence in the “hot” regions)
As confirmation of this thesis, experts point to the desire of the new president’s team to analyze the activities of the Ministry of Finance in the field of imposing sanctions against other countries.
We are talking about revising the sanctions programs. Many of the restrictions the Donald Trump administration has imposed on businesses and people associated with Iran, North Korea, China, Venezuela and Russia are considered one-sided by Biden’s team. According to the agency’s sources, the new administration finds this approach ambiguous and considers collective sanctions the most effective.
According to Biden, America cannot solve all problems on its own at the moment. Therefore, it must bring down a certain team in order to confront its geopolitical opponents. For example, in the process of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program, America needs to work to restore close ties with countries in Europe and the Pacific region. This is partly due to the need to be able to turn Europe towards Washington.
Biden disagrees with Trump’s foreign policy for ideological reasons. Say, the Republican “welcomes every dictator” and “pokes his fingers in the eyes” of Washington’s allies. As an example, Biden cites the situation in the DPRK, where there are “more lethal missiles and more capabilities than before”, and in Iran, which “is closer to the creation of nuclear weapons”.
Biden believes that America has, so to speak, “sagged” as one of the main players in the international arena and is unable to respond to a number of modern challenges. In particular, China, according to Biden, is the most formidable competitor of the United States. According to him, it depends on which approach the United States will adhere to whether the two countries will remain competitors or the situation will develop into more serious rivalry.
However, Biden calls Russia the biggest threat to his country. Accordingly, it can be predicted that one of the most powerful sanctions strikes will be directed at Russia.
Recently, a member of the House of Representatives Energy and Commerce Committee, Adam Kinzinger, said that the US sanctions against the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline are not an attempt to control Europe (as many in Brussels talked about), but an attempt to tie Moscow’s energy ambitions.
Kinzinger noted that the United States has made serious progress in sanctions against this project.
“We know that most of Europe, especially in Eastern Europe, is very concerned about the future of Europe, which depends on Russian energy”, – he said at an online meeting at the Marshall Institute.
Recall that earlier, both chambers of the US Congress agreed in the country’s draft defense budget for 2021 to expand sanctions against the Nord Stream-2 project. Trump, in turn, promised to block the bill, but there will be enough votes in Congress to overcome his veto.
The new sanctions will create new problems for the project, said Maximilian Hess, an expert at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). In his opinion, the main danger is the sanctions against the project insurers.
“Russia has demonstrated attempts to somehow get out of this situation and neutralize the threat of US sanctions, but so far such plans have not led to a result”, – he said.
Also on the list of measures to restrain Russia is the continuation of the ban on the allocation of funds for bilateral cooperation on the military track; the allocation of military assistance to Ukraine in the amount of $250 million, including $75 million for the purchase of weapons; training of military personnel in Eastern Europe.
In general, experts believe that with regard to Moscow, most likely, we should expect a wider use of sanctions instruments and the promotion of a value agenda to put pressure on internal political processes.
At the same time, Biden will try to emphasize sound pragmatism in Russian-American relations. His victory, according to experts, will help to somewhat reduce the intensity of passions around the Russian factor in US domestic policy, which will open a window of opportunity for constructive dialogue in areas where interests intersect. In addition to strategic stability and nuclear arms control, experts include cybersecurity, interaction in the Arctic and climate issues on this list.
However, skeptics state that Russian-American relations will remain at a low level in the foreseeable future. And an attempt by the Democrats to return America to world leadership could provoke acute crises along the Russian borders. In this regard, experts call for the development of new rules that will reduce the risk of unintentional incidents that could negatively affect global stability.
One way or another, the buildup of sanctions pressure and the revival of the practice of “crusades” under the banner of liberal democracy raise geopolitical risks to unacceptable levels. The new US administration is hardly interested in this. However, it has long been known that doctrinaire and common sense almost always contradict each other.
Political Analytics