Dissolution of parliament or scenario of color revolution: what did Maia Sandu and Renato Usatii discuss?
Moldova is inexorably heading towards a war between branches of government and political chaos, and the leader of Our Party can prevent or accelerate this process.
Yesterday, two Moldovan politicians, who took first and third places in the first round of the presidential elections, met and discussed issues of interest to them. After the meeting, both said that the main subject of negotiations was the dissolution of parliament. According to Renato Usatii, “the meeting lasted an hour and a half”, and he “asked Maya Sandu if she wished to use his support, to present a strategy for initiating early elections”. In addition, Usatii declined to answer the question of whom he would support in the second round.
“You put me in a quandary by asking me to say whom I support. Are we on the Guess the melody show?”- said the leader of “Our Party”.
In turn, Maia Sandu during the negotiations “reaffirmed the earlier promulgated commitment that she will clear the presidency, and then the parliament”.
What can the Partidul «Acțiune și Solidaritate» Party leader offer as an option to dissolve parliament? As you know, the Constitution of Moldova clearly describes this option – the incapacity of the parliament. Namely: the inability to appoint a government and blockage within three months of the adoption of laws.
As long as there are 51 members of parliament who are able to support the government, the president has no legal basis to dissolve parliament.
And realizing this, after talking with Usatii, Maya Sandu tried to probe the mood in the Democratic Party by meeting with several deputies.
But which other factions in parliament might be interested in dissolving it if the «Acțiune și Solidaritate» leader becomes president?
The Democratic Party of Moldova understands that in early elections they may not get into parliament, the level of support for the formation is constantly falling. Pro Moldova Candu and the new group For Moldova, formed by two fugitives, found themselves in a similar situation. Will these MPs get into the new parliament? We can say with almost one hundred percent certainty that they will not get into the legislature.
The DA platform also has a difficult situation. The result of Andrei Nastase in the elections says that they have no chance of getting into the new parliament on their own. Only if Maya Sandu takes them on board. But does she need them to get confused all the time under her feet? Someone, such as Igor Munteanu, can simply be lured away by the «Acțiune și Solidaritate». But, in general, the “DA” platform for Maia Sandu is nothing more than ballast in the early parliamentary elections.
Of course, if Maia Sandu wins in the second round, the socialists will strive to keep the government of Ion Chicu and will not support the idea of dissolution.
Thus, there is reason to believe that President Sandu will not have legitimate reasons for the dissolution of parliament.
Will it go for the option that Our Party proposed in 2016? The president simply signs “decree number one” and dissolves parliament without conditions stipulated by the Constitution.
Four years ago, this idea was criticized by experts and was regarded as naked populism. But representatives of “Our Party” insisted on their own, claiming that there are legal prerequisites for such actions.
Let’s not go into controversy. Now it is important to understand what may follow after such actions of the new president. Of course, such a decision will be challenged in the Constitutional Court. Here, a similar situation has already been considered and commented on. But anything can be expected from the Moldovan COP. And in any case, a diarchy or a war between the parliament, the government and the president may arise in Moldova. If the Constitutional Court is faithful to the Basic Law, the parliament will have legitimate grounds to initiate the procedure for the president’s resignation for usurpation of power. This requires the support of a third of the deputies. And, as you know, PSRM can provide this amount.
Thus, the option with the signing of “decree number one” on the dissolution of parliament leads to a war of state structures and a mess in the country. During the peak of the pandemic and the economic crisis, organizing a war between the branches of state power is an extremely irresponsible and destructive idea not only for the country, but also for those who implement it. And Maya Sandu, if she follows this path, can pay to many, first of all, to lose the support of people.
The only one with whom Renato Usatii can seriously discuss the dissolution of parliament is Igor Dodon. But the leader of Our Party has already said that this will not happen. He wants to see the incumbent president in prison, not a political partner.
But didn’t even before the meeting Maya Sandu and Renato Usatii know all this, didn’t analyze the situation, didn’t understand that they could not legally dissolve parliament now? The statements and actions of both politicians suggest otherwise. Maia Sandu continues the election campaign and promises that it is still impossible, which is natural. It is simply impossible to take her words at face value now. But the meeting with the Democratic Party of Moldova deputies says that the «Acțiune și Solidaritate» leader understands the legal aspects.
Renato Usatii makes statements that contribute to the growth of his political capital, and so far does not allow specifics. It’s no secret for him that Maia Sandu simply wants to “squeeze out” his electorate. And turn the leader of Our Party into a second Andrei Nastase, a political lackey. It seems that the experience of 2016 will prompt the leader of Our Party to make the right decision. Also, probably, Usatii did not forget how quite recently the leader of the «Acțiune și Solidaritate» compared him with Plahotniuc and attributed him to criminal elements.
However, the topic of parliament’s resignation is simple and hardly deserves such lengthy negotiations. Moreover, her discussion suggests that Maia Sandu will win in the second round. But, as they say, don’t rush. And what will be the actions of the «Acțiune și Solidaritate» and Our Party in the event of Igor Dodon’s victory? Didn’t Sandu and Usatii discuss this option, which is the most unfavorable and dangerous for them? This is hard to believe. But there can be only one algorithm for the actions of the two politicians – non-recognition of Igor Dodon’s victory, that is, the same scenario of a color revolution. However, in their comments after the meeting, neither Maia Sandu nor Renato Usatii said anything on this score.
But you must admit that this topic is much more important in its importance than the dissolution of parliament. Moreover, Maia Sandu cannot provide any guarantees for the dissolution of the legislative body, but can only offer a dead-end path leading to complete chaos in the Republic of Moldova.
But we cannot rule out that certain forces inside and outside the country are asleep and see the transformation of Moldova into a new hot spot in the space of the former USSR. And apparently (including a conversation between two politicians), circumstances are inexorably driving Moldova towards a war between branches of government and political chaos.
And this is the most important thing that a Moldovan voter should understand before the second round of voting.
Sergey Tkach, Mesopotamia, Moldova