At a time when world powers have little in common, they are almost unanimous that Recep Tayyip Erdogan has become a troublemaker
A series of Turkish adventures in Syria, Libya, the Mediterranean Sea and now Nagorno-Karabakh are of concern to the international community. As noted by the American agency Bloomberg, all this could have been avoided, but the conflicts are personally chosen by Erdogan, staking on promoting his interests.
It is much more difficult to explain the doctrine of such behaviour. Here experts point to neo-Osmanism, Turkish ethno-nationalism and Islamism. Some believe that geopolitics is to blame, while Turkey is manoeuvring in search of space, wishing to become “a medium-sized world power with economic and cultural opportunities that match this status”.
“There is more than a little truth in all these explanations”, – writes Bloomberg. – “But if you’re looking for Erdogan’s unifying theory of foreign policy, it is that the Turkish president does what he does because he gets away with it.”
Ankara has paid surprisingly little for the blood that has been spilled. This is largely due to the fact that wars are fought with the hands of hired militants. The real presence of Turkey in Libya or Nagorno-Karabakh can only be seen in the air.
It is also remarkable that such ventures pay off. For example, by intervening in the Libyan conflict, Ankara hopes to save construction deals worth 18 billion dollars. The intervention in Nagorno-Karabakh gave new orders to the Turkish military industrial complex. And while the major powers could level those revenues, they are in no hurry to use their economic leverage, writes Bloomberg.
Even Washington, which “gives out sanctions like candy”, has simply banned Ankara from buying its F-35s. Congressional bipartisan demands for tougher measures have been ignored by Donald Trump’s administration. NATO countries will not punish their rebellious ally without Washington’s support. Erdogan can easily reject all criticism of the alliance without fear of excluding Turkey. The only one whose condemnation Erdogan humbly accepted, avoiding harsh rhetoric in return, was Vladimir Putin. As Bloomberg stresses, he did not do this kindness to any Western president. Despite this, Turkey invaded Russia’s sphere of influence by deciding to provoke a conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh.
“As a result, Russia remains the only power that can stand up to Turkish aggression. The Azerbaijan-Armenia war is the second theatre after Libya, where Erdogan is on his way to Putin’s goals”, – the agency says.
The agency does not rule out that new Turkish raids cannot be avoided, as foreign policy remains the “only bright spot” in Erdogan’s board. The country’s economy is experiencing bad times because of the coronavirus pandemic, the national currency has collapsed, but the president’s ratings have suddenly increased.
“We must all prepare for more as the economy affected by the Coronavirus worsens. As long as he has the opportunity for hooliganism and impunity, the Turkish president is not going to stop”, – the article says.