According to the captains of Ukrainian politics, the EU-Ukraine summit (Brussels, October 6) is their unconditional victory.
Normally, they are right, Europe has not made any serious claims. Although, in essence, the final joint statement of the summit is a “re-signature” on all documents guaranteeing the fulfillment of all the wishes of the IMF in the vastness of Ukraine. That does not bring anything good either for the economy or for the society of the country. But the most intriguing thing happened not at the summit, but right after it.
Generally, it should be understood that the six-year “paternal control” of the European Union and the IMF, control “to the veins, to the children’s swollen glands” is already beginning to irritate the Ukrainian authorities. This was first revealed openly back in July last year, during the second telephone conversation between Presidents Trump and Zelensky. When to Trump’s remark that “we are doing a lot for Ukraine. We spend a lot of time and effort. Much more than European countries, although they should help you much more. Germany does almost nothing for you. They only chat, and I think you need to tell them about it”, Zelenskiy replied with enthusiastic frankness: “You are absolutely right, 1000%”. And he immediately rolled out complaints against the European Union: “They do not enforce sanctions. They are not doing everything they could for Ukraine”.
And this latent tension is gradually growing. Recently, Evropeyskaya Pravda (Kiev) published a tiny but meaningful fragment:
“For several months, Bankova (the office of the President of Ukraine – ed.) demonstrated that it was nervous about comments from abroad…”, – several Western politicians and diplomats told.
“When I even started to say softly something like “we are your friends and we want to help, and therefore… ”, my interlocutor immediately went in defense, it was even visible”, – one of the edition’s interlocutors shared his impression of his meeting with one of the prominent representatives of the ZE-team.
It is not surprising that in such conditions Ukraine enters into the status of a “girl in search”, when, without abandoning an old partner, she is not at all averse to having an affair with a new one.
Great Britain may become “new” for Ukraine. After the end of the summit, Zelensky and his team went to London. And it was not just a diplomatic courtesy visit, which included an audience with the Queen’s grandson, Duke William of Cambridge, the second person in the line of succession to the British throne (the first son of Elizabeth II – Charles, Prince of Wales). These are all ceremonies, but what Zelensky supported is already politics. At 10 Downing Street, the Ukrainian President and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson signed a Political, Trade and Strategic Partnership Agreement that “ensures the same level of liberalization in trade, services and public procurement that businesses currently enjoy under the current The Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU ”.
And it should be noted that for British diplomats this is indeed a success. This is the first comprehensive strategic and trade agreement signed by the UK since Brexit, since the creation of the Foreign Office for Commonwealth and Development (FCDO). That is, Britain did not have time to secede from the European Union (the withdrawal agreement will enter into force only on January 31, 2020), the “transition period” has not yet really begun, as the “queen of the seas” is already trying to take away from the Brussels port Ukraine, the best prey corsairs over the past seven years.
In addition, Great Britain retains and strengthens control over one of its resource appendages. Of course, export-import operations between Ukraine and England are not so large (in 2019 – USD 13.98 billion, with a balance of 142 million in favor of England), but it is worth paying attention to the structure of trade turnover. The main goods exported from the UK to Ukraine were aircraft, medicines and pharmaceuticals, and cars. The British imported, first of all, 177 million pounds of grain and 182 million pounds of iron and steel. And the British are planning to enter Ukraine “heavily, roughly, visibly”. After all, the best argument for weight is military strength.
During Zelensky’s visit, Ukrainian Defense Minister Andriy Taran and British Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace signed a memorandum on strengthening cooperation in the military and military-technical spheres. Under its terms, the British are attracting a ten-year loan of 1.25 billion pounds, part of which is used to build eight large missile boats. The boats themselves do not represent much military weight. Judging by the data of British publications, these are derivatives of the Vosper Thornycroft 56m patrol boat, which London supplied to Oman and Kenya and Qatar in the late 1990s. Their combat qualities can hardly impress anyone today, but in any case they are somewhere comparable to the characteristics of the missile boats of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. Although against the “Bastions” on Fiolent or the three operating “Varshavyankas” in the depths of the Black Sea, British boats have very little chances.
But the British shouldn’t really care. Their goals are different. Firstly, they “feed” with orders the once mighty shipbuilding and ship-repairing plants in Ukraine, since six out of eight boats will be manufactured at Ukrainian facilities. Now those are in ruins, but after all, once upon a time, twice the Order of Lenin, the Order of the October Revolution, the Black Sea Shipyard (Nikolaev) built all seven operating aircraft-carrying cruisers of the USSR. And it’s no secret that any enterprise can be raised with good military orders.
Secondly, they are gaining points in the confrontation with the European Union. After all, the construction of six combat boats of British technology at Ukrainian production facilities is the very “localization of production” that is so necessary for Ukraine, but which the EU has so hysterically opposed.
Thirdly, and this is the most important thing, when signing, Taran stressed that we are talking not only about ships, but also about infrastructure. Also maximally adapted for interaction with NATO naval forces. That is, London actually receives a naval base on the territory of Ukraine (most often called Nikolaev) with a small fleet under its control. Nominally Ukrainian, and therefore not subject to the restrictions of the Montreux Convention.
In general, the British are competently entering the south of Ukraine and, it would seem, the Russian foe is in awe.
But at this moment vague doubts begin to torment. Dmytro Kuleba, not the most intelligent, but still the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, commenting on the British visit, said:
“Europe has two flanks. There is a western flank – this is Great Britain. There is an eastern flank – this is Ukraine. And today, these two flanks have become even closer to each other”.
This means that today Europe has become stronger. The minister may not know this, but England is not yet an adversary, but already a clear competitor to the EU. Will Brussels gasp in such an embrace? And how will he then assess the fact that Ukraine has taken on the role of the British “flank guard”?
Andrey Ganzha, IA REGNUM