Ankara has made a serious bet that it will succeed in bluffing the price of imported gas.
In 2021, Gazprom’s gas contracts with Turkish companies for the supply of 8 billion cubic metres of “blue fuel” will expire. The “take and pay” principle is currently in effect, and this is very annoying for Turkey. Ankara was very hopeful that it would be able to “sell” its partners and get a good discount, arguing for new sources.
The main trump card of Turkey is the discovery of a new gas field in the Black Sea. But this is not a reason for Russia to “bend over” and immediately give a discount. Finding gas does not mean producing it.
Moscow, Sofia, and even Washington tried to produce large volumes of gas in the Black Sea, but in the end everybody gave up this idea – it was unprofitable. It is very likely that Turkey will fall into the same trap. The Black Sea water area is not the best place for efficient gas production. But Ankara is already using newly discovered deposits as a bargaining chip.
There is a very good chance that the cost of production will exceed the price of Russian gas. So the Turks may try to blackmail the transition to LNG and Azerbaijani gas through the new TANAP pipeline. But this is also a bluff. Baku simply will not have the capacity to supply the Turks, and LNG, even given its current subsidence in value due to the global recession in consumption, will still go up in price. In addition, Ankara will have to build additional liquefied gas terminals, which will also cost a fortune.
So it turns out that Turkey is not going anywhere. In fact, there is no trump card. So we will have to agree to our terms and conditions.
Russian Demiurge